Here's an analysis of last years VORP and Win Shares, which are then compared to last years VORP and Win Shares of the players we acquired (major leagues only). For players with no major league totals, and positions with the same player i will try and make educated guesses.
Catcher: Miller=14, Kendall=23. +9
1B: 04 Hatteberg= 18, 05 Hatty= 18. +0
I think Hatty will put up arounjd teh same production. He finally came into his own, and now with the added rest he will get, he will keep it up all year.
2B: Scoot=12, Ginter/Ellis*16 +4
No matter who starts and who subs, i think they will put up around there. Ginter had 12 last year, and Ellis is a pretty good backup. I didn't include Mac into the win shares because most of his time came when Chavez was injured. I cant say exactly, but Mac's win shares at second base was probably 1 or 2 at the most.
3B: 04 Chavez=22, 05 Chavez=31 +9
Last year, if playing the whole year, he was going to have his best year of his career. On pace for 37 home runs and over 100 RBI's, plus league leading walks. I fully expect Chavvy for this finally to be the year where he busts loose.
SS: 04 Crosby 18, 05 Crosby= 16. -2
I personally think he will do better, but i have to be objective. THere is that infamous sophomore slump. If he does slump, it won't be by much. He's just that good.
LF: 04 Byrnes=22, 05 Byrnes=24 +2
He has kept improving, and im confident this year will be pretty much close to his peak.
CF: 04 Kotsay=25, 05 Kotsay=23 -2
RF: Dye=18, Swisher=17 -1
More hyped then crosby. I actually think he will do better than that. He is a special hitter.
DH: Durazo=25, 05 Durazo= 19
Bench: 04 Bench=14, 05 Bench=21 +7
This year, instead of McMillon and Mac, we have Thomas and presumably Ellis. Assuming ellis is the backup and he puts four, like i thought before and thomast puts up last years total of 7, then thats how we get the 7 point advantage.
Total for offensive players: +20, or about 7 extra wins.
For the pitching, i will be extremely objective
1. Hudson=16, Meyer=8(that means about BZ's last season) -8
I think he'll do better than that, but for the sake of the argument. I put him compared to hudson because thats who we got in trading Huddy.
2.Mulder=10, Haren=8. -2
Haren is an estimate, not what he put up last year (the site im looking at doesnt list him as having a win share for some reason)
3. 04 Zito=9, 05 Zito=12 (Similar to Hardens season) +3
Again, still staying objective.
4. 04 Harden=12, 05= 16 (hvaing a huddy like year) +4
I don't really have to explain...
5. Redman=6, Blanton=6 (Zito like year) +0
Rotation Totals: -3
Long man: Duke=8, 05=6 -2
I think some of his will be taken away by other relievers, because this year we have relievers who are actually better.
1. Hammond=5, Calero=4 -1
I think Calero will do better than that, but thats last years total.
I think they might have the same total, but they didn't have the same type of year they usually do. I expect them to do better, but we'll leave it at 4.
- Mecir=3, Cruz=6 +3
- Rhodes=3, Tyler Johnson=0 -3
1. Dotel=9, 05 Dotel (full year)= 13 +4
I'll bet anyone here he makes the all star team. I think he'll put up more like 16, but objectivity interfered.
Pitchign totals: -2
Team totals: +18 or 6 extra wins.
Well, the win shares tell us we will have 6 extra wins. Or 97 wins. There is the possibility that Meyer and Blanton will stink and a lot of others. But, for now this is what it looks like.