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A's Players Most likely to get traded this season...

I know that nobody's even reported to spring training yet, but I thought I'd throw out some handicapping. In my opinion, in order, these are the A's most likely to get traded this season:

1)Byrnes--will not break camp with the team.

2)Rincon--there will always be a team looking for a lefty reliever. He will be traded

3)Dotel--We have Street and Garcia, and there is almost guaranteed to be at least one team (I'm looking at you, Chicago) with playoff hopes that needs bullpen help in July. I'd say odds are 60-40 or better he gets traded.

4)Hatteberg or Durazo--This probably only happens if the A's suck this year, but I could see there being a market for one of these guys as a left-handed bat for a contending team.

5)Dan Johnson--he has a nice prospect resume, but it seems to me that Beane doesn't like him that much (if Billy did like him, he would make room for him, as he is doing with Kielty, "the human popup", by trading Byrnes). I could see him being packaged in a deal with one of the above players.

Guys I don't see getting traded:

1)Kielty--The only way Beane gets rid of him is if he sobers up and releases him.

2)Zito--I really don't see Zito getting traded unless everything goes wrong and the A's are a 100-loss team this year. Even if we're middle of the pack this year, Zito is important for 2006.

By the way, I make a few snarky remarks about BB here, so let me just say that I think he is a great GM--I just think he has a blind spot on Kielty. Hopefully I will be proved wrong (especially b/c Kielty looks exactly like my buddy Drew, which is hilarious).

This is all pointless conjecture, but so is everything else we've been writing the last two months. God, I can't wait for the season to start.

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A couple disagreements
I think Dotel should be ahead of Rincon. Teams are always looking for a lefty reliever, but that would leave us with none. Unless we are totally out of it....

Dan Johnson should not be on that list. It's not as if BB doesnt like him. BB doesnt have ADD, he knows Dan is a great hitter. Here's why it all makes sense. Durazo and Hatteberg are in the last year of contracts. There is a chance that we sign Ruby again next year, but most likely not hatteberg. Maybe hatty for 1 year, but not both. Next year will be his time. Unless Daric Barton goes crazy, he will not be ready next year. Our 2 first baseman are free agents, so that will be the ideal time for Johnson. We save some money at it too. In fact, we probably will sign either Hatty/Durazo to another one year deal to play DH/1B so we can leave swisher in the outfield.

About Kielty: He could not get worse than last year. If you look at his stats, last year did not reflect him at all. Expect a rebound. If Kielty sucks like last year, I'll eat my menorah.

Peace up, A-Town Down (A town being Albany California, not Atlanta)

by ohad on Feb 18, 2005 1:36 PM PST reply actions  

Not Rincon
As much as I dislike Rincon, I don't think he'll be traded because he's our only lefty in the bullpen right now (i think?).

I think the A's will start spring training with the current team.

by gotgreen on Feb 18, 2005 1:36 PM PST reply actions  

Rincon
If Tyler Johnson, the Rule 5 draftee, does well, he would be a cheaper, younger alternative to Rincon. I'm rooting for him.

by EddieVegas_NRAF on Feb 18, 2005 2:29 PM PST up reply actions  

PTBNL
he's outta here.

Though he'll probably come back too. He might even come before he leaves. It's amazing how that works.

Relax alright don't try to strike everyone out. Strikeouts are boring besides that they're fascist. Throw some ground balls it's more democratic.

by devo on Feb 18, 2005 1:39 PM PST reply actions  

I didn't understand that post.
Peace up, A-Town Down (A town being Albany California, not Atlanta)

by ohad on Feb 18, 2005 1:41 PM PST up reply actions  

PTBNL = Player to be named later
Relax alright don't try to strike everyone out. Strikeouts are boring besides that they're fascist. Throw some ground balls it's more democratic.

by devo on Feb 18, 2005 1:50 PM PST up reply actions  

Byrnes-trade
I don't see why they would trade byrnes.  They know he is legit, why not hold onto him and let the guys under him prove themselves before we trade him.  Cause, if Kielty and Thomas suck, our outfield will blow.  A Crap Platton in left, a rookie in right, and a leadoff hitter in center.  Byrnes is insurance, his bat is good, his defense is good.  If Thomas or Kielty prove themselves, Byrnes is taking a one-way flight out of Oakland on July 31.

by robber23 on Feb 18, 2005 1:59 PM PST reply actions  

Bad sentence
Byrnes and good defense should not be used in the same sentences.
Peace up, A-Town Down (A town being Albany California, not Atlanta)

by ohad on Feb 18, 2005 2:48 PM PST up reply actions  

dotel
especially if he still has problems AND huston street brings his success to the major league level.
love, mike in canada

by oakland ehs on Feb 18, 2005 2:01 PM PST reply actions  

Keilty
isn't good-looking enough to be an A.

SORRY! I know that was shallow but I couldn't resist.

Byrnes has been impressive enough to be trade-bait I'm really surprised he's still around.

by BillybUcko on Feb 18, 2005 2:29 PM PST reply actions  

Actually....
Kielty isn't that bad looking. He has really good hair. Actually, everyone on the A's has good hair (with a few exceptions here and there.... :) ) Like Zito, gorgeous hair.... then again, everything about him is drop dead sexy. Byrnes, awesome hair. Swisher, beautiful hair. And you know what? I'll stop now. I talk about this enough. :)

I think that Byrnes is going to end up getting traded. It pains me to even think about it, but the harsh reality is that he'll probably he gone by the trade deadline. If he isn't, I really don't think they're going to give him another contract. :'( I like Byrnes.

Rincon, as someone had said, is an excellent pitcher if you use him right. He's a specialty pitcher, not a standard relief one.

Durazo is too valuable to Beane. Hatteberg (I think) is just there until next year. He's already like 35 and we've got Dan Johnson down in AAA and with the talk of Daric Barton, he should be up by late '06 or '07.

Dotel.... If Street comes up, he's a goner. That is if Street comes up and actually does a good job at closer. I think he's just getting really hyped up. I know he;s good, but sometimes people talk too much and get dissapointed (i.e. Jairo Garcia).

BTW does anyone remember the name of the kid that was brought up last June in Anaheim when Chavvy was out? Ramon..... something? I think... It's really bothering me that I can't remember...

Cammy- "Boxers or briefs?" Swisher- "None!"

by GreenNGoldGirl on Feb 18, 2005 7:02 PM PST up reply actions  

Castro
and I thought Kielty had a shaved head.

Good analysis.

Relax alright don't try to strike everyone out. Strikeouts are boring besides that they're fascist. Throw some ground balls it's more democratic.

by devo on Feb 18, 2005 7:05 PM PST up reply actions  

why thank you
and I thought Kielty had a shaved head too. Until i saw him at Fan Fest. He has great hair. Bobby and Huddy are the only ones that can get away with having shaved heads. :)
Cammy- "Boxers or briefs?" Swisher- "None!"

by GreenNGoldGirl on Feb 18, 2005 7:15 PM PST up reply actions  

Perhaps he grew it out over the last 5 months ...
Relax alright don't try to strike everyone out. Strikeouts are boring besides that they're fascist. Throw some ground balls it's more democratic.

by devo on Feb 18, 2005 8:03 PM PST up reply actions  

Makes sense.....
He needed to appeal to more people. He definitly appeals to me now. He looks younger, more capable of great things.

I see a lot in a hairdo.

Cammy- "Boxers or briefs?" Swisher- "None!"

by GreenNGoldGirl on Feb 18, 2005 8:10 PM PST up reply actions  

Nice ...
I'm glad your optimistic about his future.
Relax alright don't try to strike everyone out. Strikeouts are boring besides that they're fascist. Throw some ground balls it's more democratic.

by devo on Feb 18, 2005 8:24 PM PST up reply actions  

It's good to be optimistic....
It's better than being a rotting sour bitter oh-everyone-pity-me-because-I'm-a-teenager annoying 14 year old. I'd get on everyone's nerves. I do get on people's nerves for being too optimistic sometimes, but I still think it's better than acting like an old fart. Besides... you have more fun when you expect the best.

Smile

Town Clerk: [reading Jack's hanging notice and his crimes] ... impersonating a cleric of the Church of England... Jack Sparrow: [smiles] Oh yeah...

by GreenNGoldGirl on Feb 18, 2005 8:29 PM PST up reply actions  

That is so exactly what I like to hear
Good things happen to people who believe in them. Keep a smile on your face and you'll go far.
Relax alright don't try to strike everyone out. Strikeouts are boring besides that they're fascist. Throw some ground balls it's more democratic.

by devo on Feb 18, 2005 8:36 PM PST up reply actions  

Sounds like a plan!
Smiling puts people in a good mood.

Come on, you MUST have heard the song "Smile" by Vitamin C!! Right?? :)

Town Clerk: [reading Jack's hanging notice and his crimes] ... impersonating a cleric of the Church of England... Jack Sparrow: [smiles] Oh yeah...

by GreenNGoldGirl on Feb 18, 2005 8:50 PM PST up reply actions  

I'm an old man ...
don't listen to this "popular music" you youngins are always talkin about
Relax alright don't try to strike everyone out. Strikeouts are boring besides that they're fascist. Throw some ground balls it's more democratic.

by devo on Feb 18, 2005 9:51 PM PST up reply actions  

LoL
That song came out like 7 years ago! :) Well, then again, Green Day came out in '94 and I have every CD that has ever come out from them....
Town Clerk: [reading Jack's hanging notice and his crimes] ... impersonating a cleric of the Church of England... Jack Sparrow: [smiles] Oh yeah...

by GreenNGoldGirl on Feb 19, 2005 12:12 PM PST up reply actions  

Dotel
Dotel isn't likely to be traded unless we're out of the race early or he falters badly (i don't envision either happening... by july anyway). I think after last season's closer debacle BB is starting to realize that he can't afford NOT to have a true closer. In the past he has made some damned good gambles at the craps table that doubles as our last line of defense in the bullpen. However, i think he (and we) were fortunate that those 3 guys performed so well. Sure, they were well calculated risks but good fortune also smiled on us. I think BB figured he could do no wrong when it came to refurbishing and discarding gems off the scrap heap. Why else would he have gotten the ridiculous notion that Arthur Rhodes could have the same kind of success? But while it may sound like i'm being overly critical of Mr. Beane in fact i think that that disaster illustrates just why he's on of the best gm's in the game. The guy LEARNS from his mistakes (though perhaps he'd be a bit reluctant to admit to a few). Look at our alternatives if we trade Dotel in june or july. No, i mean look OBJECTIVELY..we're all guilty of being overly optimistic at times when it comes to OUR team . I Think while we'll be competitive this season, we're more likely to do serious damage in '06. And in '06 i'm not sure Street (i think he'll be a great set up guy rather than a lights out closer), Garcia (he has the stuff, but the command and confidence may take another year or two) or Cruz (again, he has the stuff..but not the mentality or command) are slam dunk candidates to close for what chould be potentially the best team we've had in a long long time. I do understand Billy's thinking in not locking up Dotel for an extra year however ( he wasn't exactly lights out himself last year in his first year shutting the door), but i think he will be an elite fireman this year and in the future. Despite Billy's willingness to pull the trigger on a pre-emptive strike when he feels it's time , my guess is that he'll be very careful before trading Dotel away before someone else is truly ready to step into his shoes.

by FabulousG on Feb 18, 2005 2:44 PM PST reply actions  

Byrnes.....
I'm not sure BB's supposed willingness to trade Byrnesy isn't just alot of smoke and mirrors. Think about it...you have one of our few righthanded bats with some pop..a guy the fans love because he hustles his ass off and plays with rare emotion and enthusiasm (something this team needs MORE not less of)...he's far superior to Kielty both at the plate and in the field (they're both basicallly right handed hitters..Kielty does BAT lefthanded on occasion..but rarely actually hits)...so why trade Byrnes?...doesn't a Byrnes/Thomas platoon (not strictly lefty/righty but also who's hot) in left look like our best option? I've heard people say Byrnes will be traded because Billy believes in trading when value is highest and buying when value is lowest..that's an oversimplification..and a flawed one as well.
If Billy Beane TRULY believes that Eric has peaked all he needs to do is contruct a graph of the guy's performance curve..Notice an upward trend?

by FabulousG on Feb 18, 2005 2:56 PM PST reply actions  

Graph?
Yes it's an upward trend, but maybe Beane thinks it'll stay the same or go down from now on. It's not unreasonable to think that Byrnes has reached his peak, since he'll soon be 29.

by OaktownTribesman on Feb 18, 2005 3:29 PM PST up reply actions  

hmmmm...peak at 29?
Look around the league..how many guys peak at 29 these days? Chavez will be there soon too yknow..think he's peaked as well?..i'm thinking nay..on either of them

by FabulousG on Feb 18, 2005 3:32 PM PST up reply actions  

Yeah, Chavy will probably peak
in the next couple of years. I don't expect him to collapse afterwards, nor does anyone expect Byrnes to collapse, just that they will stop getting better.

Regardless of what Barry, Rocket, Unit, and Palmeiro might be doing, that is still very much the exception to the rule.

# of players w/ OPS > .900

Age
<26__ 5
27-30 13
31-33 6
>35__ 4

Relax alright don't try to strike everyone out. Strikeouts are boring besides that they're fascist. Throw some ground balls it's more democratic.

by devo on Feb 18, 2005 3:42 PM PST up reply actions  

Overrated?
The age thing is being overused by some BB followers it seems.  I agree, most players do not improve over 30 but some do...and many don't get much if at all, worse.  It is important more so for injuries, but ruling anyone out over 30 is also silly, IMO.  
what are you looking at this for

by WiscoFan on Feb 18, 2005 4:37 PM PST up reply actions  

BP agrees more with OaktownTribesman...
But not as clear-cut as I thought.

For what it's worth (from Baseball Prospectus):

"1.Demographically, there is a large, broad peak of players aged 25-30, with rapid declines on either side. Perhaps not coincidentally, the 31-32 is the first transition featuring large dropoffs in performance, although some might argue that for the 29-30 transition.
2.The predictability of the various stats is relatively independent of age, although standard deviations for slugging percentage are slightly higher during the 26-29 peak.
3.Neither the 1994-1996 subset nor the age 19-26 are more variable than the overall set, although the slugging average means differ somewhat.  (continued)."

http://baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=49

There is evidence that Byrnes is likely due for a decline either this seaosn or next.

by CletusSJY on Feb 18, 2005 3:49 PM PST up reply actions  

The myth of the blanket aging curve
If you clump all of the players in baseball history and look at their relative peaks then yes, age 29 normally represents the beginning of a decline phase.  But when making decisions like this I think it's very important to remember that not all humans age equally.  Byrnes is a terrific "physical specimen" and doesn't exhibit the skill set of an aging player.  Take a look at PECOTA's collapse/attrition rates for Byrnes:
18.8/2.0
for comparison's sake, look at Kielty:
25.6/32.2

PECOTA doesn't look at Byrnes and dumbly say "he is 29, therefor he is likely to decline".  Instead it sees a player who's shown increasing speed and power and recognizes that Byrnes is much more likely to improve or maintain his level of performance as opposed to following a standard curve.

A perfect counter-example would be to compare Eric Byrnes to another recent A's outfielder, Jermaine Dye.  At Jermaine's 27-year old peak he already had an older player's skill set.  And, lo-and-behold, he fell off the cliff shortly afterwards.  

RFB 4 ever

by Tim J on Feb 18, 2005 4:46 PM PST up reply actions  

Rincon (short n' sweet)
Rincon is not going to be traded until we have another quality lefthanded options in the pen (or two). And frankly, looking at our organization chart there's no one fitting that description in sight. I'm sure Billy will rectify that with a trade in the near future. We have a righty bullpen surplus.

by FabulousG on Feb 18, 2005 3:01 PM PST reply actions  

Hatteberg,Durazo & Johnson ( lefty law firm)
Hatteberg: I'm all for trading him now. Since i think Johnson could probably help us more on the field right now i suspect that Hatty's professionalism and leadership in the clubhouse with a young (and getting younger) team is the only thing keepng him around at this point.
Durazo: The guy can rake..and i think Billy knows he's due for an even bigger spike in the power department..30 bombs and 100 rbi's is within reach this year..and god don't we need  little more pop. THIS is the guy who should have gotten more than a one year deal (especially NOW when we can still afford it..after he hits .300 30 & 100 he's out of our price range).
Johnson: The guy has done all he can do at TRIPLE A. Sure he's only adequate defensively at first (like the guy over there now is a gold glover) but check his walk to K ratio..the man is ready to hit big league pitching and hit it well..something/someone HAS to give.

by FabulousG on Feb 18, 2005 3:12 PM PST reply actions  

Bradford
Expendable...while i think we need a soft tosser to offset all the power arms in the pen now i think Ducherer can fulfill that need just as effectively (perhaps MORE effectively)..how 'bout a straight up swap for a lefty reliever of similar value?..OR.. we can toss in a midling prospect from a source of strength (John Baker, Shane Bazzell,Chris Mabeus) and get an even better quality lefty for the pen.

by FabulousG on Feb 18, 2005 3:21 PM PST reply actions  

Isn't that selling low?
There's need in this bullpen as well for a righty ground-ball specialist, but even more, we're not going to get that much for Bradford now (lefty relievers are usually worth more than their righty equivalents)

And I personally think he's rebounding to a good, solid year :)

by Trocmagic on Feb 18, 2005 4:30 PM PST up reply actions  

Kielty
Kielty is going to have to be packaged with someone else to even HAVE any value to another team.

by FabulousG on Feb 18, 2005 3:22 PM PST reply actions  

More on the hitless wonder....
I think it would be a waste of at bats better spent on someone else to give Kilety a chance to resurrect what's left of his career in Oakland. Not to mention the lack of production said at bats would give the team.

by FabulousG on Feb 18, 2005 3:25 PM PST reply actions  

Ginter
If Ellis is healthy AND hitting (two pretty big ifs) and Omar Quintanilla makes the adjustment to 2b ok (pretty much a given) and continues to rake like he has..then we'll have a surplus of middle infielders for the first time in eons and Ginter would probab;y have the most value...i don't think he's good enough defensively to be the answer for anything more than short term despite his bat.

by FabulousG on Feb 18, 2005 3:30 PM PST reply actions  

Zito
If his ERA doesn't slide back down to around 3.00, I don't think they keep him and his $8 million price tag for 2006. He'd fetch a nice package of prospects and pre-arb players.

by OaktownTribesman on Feb 18, 2005 3:31 PM PST reply actions  

Amen
If the A's aren't in it and Zito's numbers will draw flies Beane will swat them. And then tell everyone how hard it was to do.

by bayfrank on Feb 18, 2005 6:08 PM PST up reply actions  

Doh-tel
He might be dealt.  Street is not yet ready to close in the majors, might not even be ready to pitch regularly in the majors, though.

Still, if the A's are not in contention in late July, they won't need Dotel to close out games for a non-playoff team, and if another team is willing to pay an attractive price under those circumstances, Dotel will be gone.

MJB

by MJB on Feb 18, 2005 3:39 PM PST reply actions  

what to trade FOR...
i know we've been discusssing who might be traded..but i'm curious how other fans would rank what we need in return as far as filling weaknesses goes....here's my list

 1. Lefty reliever : i really think it would help the entire pen as well as the young starters if we had two lefties in the pen.
 2. Right handed power bat : yeah, i realize this one isn't going to be easy to find..but there are a few who might be available who can play 1b/dh and/or left field (if Byrnes is traded).
 oh...and IF Byrnes is traded the flip flop the above priorities (righty power bat would be #1 in that case)

by FabulousG on Feb 18, 2005 3:41 PM PST reply actions  

All offseason I thought...
that Durazo would be gone.  Beane likes to sell high, and Durazo hit a high last year.  I really wanna see Johnson get his shot, and I'm sure he will.  But one of the 1B will have to go.  

Byrnes will be gone if Thomas/Kielty comes through like Beane hopes they will.  We could easily get a lefty reliever for him, but it would have to be a good one, since out bullpen is in good shape.

2B is a hard position to fill, and we have 3 serviceable 2B-men, and one on the way.  Scutaro could be packaged in on a trade for something after the season he had last year.  I would see Ellis going before Ginter though.  I dunno why, just a hunch.

Rincon will stay unless we get more leftys in the pen.  Bradford will stay b/c Beane really likes him.  Guess thats all I see...

by ZeroIndulgence on Feb 18, 2005 4:23 PM PST reply actions  

Veterans
Its obvious Hatty isn't the long-term 1B and if DJ continues to rip up the Minors, they almost have to give him a shot sometime this year.  I think after the All-Star break he might get his chance if someone wants a lefty pinch hitter or replacement for a 1B thats in contention, it Hatteberg.  Take his salary and give DJ his shot since it seems like its his position for 2006.  Or call him up, give him a few starts, if he shows he can play at the MLB level, then look to make a deal...after all Hatty won't be around in 2006 anyways, I don't think he will accept a pay-cut to stay.

Bradford might not net the best value but his salary is high and we all know the glut of relievers we have.  If/when Yabu goes to the pen and we call up Blanton or Meyer(I think one starts the season in the minors) then to create that spot try and get whatever, PTBNL ;), for Bradford.  

If the team really struggles, more than almost any of us believe will happen or hope for plus they feel they won't be able to re-sign Durazo...I can see a trade but I really doubt it.

Players least likely to go...anyone making under 1 million and that is under 30 years old ;) plus Chavez.  That rules out a good portion of the team.

what are you looking at this for

by WiscoFan on Feb 18, 2005 4:44 PM PST reply actions  

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