A's Players Most likely to get traded this season...
I know that nobody's even reported to spring training yet, but I thought I'd throw out some handicapping. In my opinion, in order, these are the A's most likely to get traded this season:
1)Byrnes--will not break camp with the team.
2)Rincon--there will always be a team looking for a lefty reliever. He will be traded
3)Dotel--We have Street and Garcia, and there is almost guaranteed to be at least one team (I'm looking at you, Chicago) with playoff hopes that needs bullpen help in July. I'd say odds are 60-40 or better he gets traded.
4)Hatteberg or Durazo--This probably only happens if the A's suck this year, but I could see there being a market for one of these guys as a left-handed bat for a contending team.
5)Dan Johnson--he has a nice prospect resume, but it seems to me that Beane doesn't like him that much (if Billy did like him, he would make room for him, as he is doing with Kielty, "the human popup", by trading Byrnes). I could see him being packaged in a deal with one of the above players.
Guys I don't see getting traded:
1)Kielty--The only way Beane gets rid of him is if he sobers up and releases him.
2)Zito--I really don't see Zito getting traded unless everything goes wrong and the A's are a 100-loss team this year. Even if we're middle of the pack this year, Zito is important for 2006.
By the way, I make a few snarky remarks about BB here, so let me just say that I think he is a great GM--I just think he has a blind spot on Kielty. Hopefully I will be proved wrong (especially b/c Kielty looks exactly like my buddy Drew, which is hilarious).
This is all pointless conjecture, but so is everything else we've been writing the last two months. God, I can't wait for the season to start.
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A couple disagreements
Dan Johnson should not be on that list. It's not as if BB doesnt like him. BB doesnt have ADD, he knows Dan is a great hitter. Here's why it all makes sense. Durazo and Hatteberg are in the last year of contracts. There is a chance that we sign Ruby again next year, but most likely not hatteberg. Maybe hatty for 1 year, but not both. Next year will be his time. Unless Daric Barton goes crazy, he will not be ready next year. Our 2 first baseman are free agents, so that will be the ideal time for Johnson. We save some money at it too. In fact, we probably will sign either Hatty/Durazo to another one year deal to play DH/1B so we can leave swisher in the outfield.
About Kielty: He could not get worse than last year. If you look at his stats, last year did not reflect him at all. Expect a rebound. If Kielty sucks like last year, I'll eat my menorah.
Not Rincon
I think the A's will start spring training with the current team.
Rincon
by EddieVegas_NRAF on Feb 18, 2005 2:29 PM PST up reply actions
PTBNL
Though he'll probably come back too. He might even come before he leaves. It's amazing how that works.
I didn't understand that post.
PTBNL = Player to be named later
Byrnes-trade
Bad sentence
dotel
Keilty
SORRY! I know that was shallow but I couldn't resist.
Byrnes has been impressive enough to be trade-bait I'm really surprised he's still around.
by BillybUcko on Feb 18, 2005 2:29 PM PST reply actions
Actually....
I think that Byrnes is going to end up getting traded. It pains me to even think about it, but the harsh reality is that he'll probably he gone by the trade deadline. If he isn't, I really don't think they're going to give him another contract. :'( I like Byrnes.
Rincon, as someone had said, is an excellent pitcher if you use him right. He's a specialty pitcher, not a standard relief one.
Durazo is too valuable to Beane. Hatteberg (I think) is just there until next year. He's already like 35 and we've got Dan Johnson down in AAA and with the talk of Daric Barton, he should be up by late '06 or '07.
Dotel.... If Street comes up, he's a goner. That is if Street comes up and actually does a good job at closer. I think he's just getting really hyped up. I know he;s good, but sometimes people talk too much and get dissapointed (i.e. Jairo Garcia).
BTW does anyone remember the name of the kid that was brought up last June in Anaheim when Chavvy was out? Ramon..... something? I think... It's really bothering me that I can't remember...
by GreenNGoldGirl on Feb 18, 2005 7:02 PM PST up reply actions
Castro
Good analysis.
why thank you
by GreenNGoldGirl on Feb 18, 2005 7:15 PM PST up reply actions
Perhaps he grew it out over the last 5 months ...
Makes sense.....
I see a lot in a hairdo.
by GreenNGoldGirl on Feb 18, 2005 8:10 PM PST up reply actions
Nice ...
It's good to be optimistic....
Smile
by GreenNGoldGirl on Feb 18, 2005 8:29 PM PST up reply actions
That is so exactly what I like to hear
Sounds like a plan!
Come on, you MUST have heard the song "Smile" by Vitamin C!! Right?? :)
by GreenNGoldGirl on Feb 18, 2005 8:50 PM PST up reply actions
I'm an old man ...
LoL
by GreenNGoldGirl on Feb 19, 2005 12:12 PM PST up reply actions
Dotel
by FabulousG on Feb 18, 2005 2:44 PM PST reply actions
Byrnes.....
If Billy Beane TRULY believes that Eric has peaked all he needs to do is contruct a graph of the guy's performance curve..Notice an upward trend?
by FabulousG on Feb 18, 2005 2:56 PM PST reply actions
Graph?
by OaktownTribesman on Feb 18, 2005 3:29 PM PST up reply actions
hmmmm...peak at 29?
by FabulousG on Feb 18, 2005 3:32 PM PST up reply actions
Yeah, Chavy will probably peak
Regardless of what Barry, Rocket, Unit, and Palmeiro might be doing, that is still very much the exception to the rule.
# of players w/ OPS > .900
Age
<26__ 5
27-30 13
31-33 6
>35__ 4
Overrated?
BP agrees more with OaktownTribesman...
For what it's worth (from Baseball Prospectus):
"1.Demographically, there is a large, broad peak of players aged 25-30, with rapid declines on either side. Perhaps not coincidentally, the 31-32 is the first transition featuring large dropoffs in performance, although some might argue that for the 29-30 transition.
2.The predictability of the various stats is relatively independent of age, although standard deviations for slugging percentage are slightly higher during the 26-29 peak.
3.Neither the 1994-1996 subset nor the age 19-26 are more variable than the overall set, although the slugging average means differ somewhat. (continued)."
http://baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=49
There is evidence that Byrnes is likely due for a decline either this seaosn or next.
The myth of the blanket aging curve
18.8/2.0
for comparison's sake, look at Kielty:
25.6/32.2
PECOTA doesn't look at Byrnes and dumbly say "he is 29, therefor he is likely to decline". Instead it sees a player who's shown increasing speed and power and recognizes that Byrnes is much more likely to improve or maintain his level of performance as opposed to following a standard curve.
A perfect counter-example would be to compare Eric Byrnes to another recent A's outfielder, Jermaine Dye. At Jermaine's 27-year old peak he already had an older player's skill set. And, lo-and-behold, he fell off the cliff shortly afterwards.
Rincon (short n' sweet)
by FabulousG on Feb 18, 2005 3:01 PM PST reply actions
Hatteberg,Durazo & Johnson ( lefty law firm)
Durazo: The guy can rake..and i think Billy knows he's due for an even bigger spike in the power department..30 bombs and 100 rbi's is within reach this year..and god don't we need little more pop. THIS is the guy who should have gotten more than a one year deal (especially NOW when we can still afford it..after he hits .300 30 & 100 he's out of our price range).
Johnson: The guy has done all he can do at TRIPLE A. Sure he's only adequate defensively at first (like the guy over there now is a gold glover) but check his walk to K ratio..the man is ready to hit big league pitching and hit it well..something/someone HAS to give.
by FabulousG on Feb 18, 2005 3:12 PM PST reply actions
Bradford
by FabulousG on Feb 18, 2005 3:21 PM PST reply actions
Isn't that selling low?
And I personally think he's rebounding to a good, solid year :)
Kielty
by FabulousG on Feb 18, 2005 3:22 PM PST reply actions
More on the hitless wonder....
by FabulousG on Feb 18, 2005 3:25 PM PST reply actions
Ginter
by FabulousG on Feb 18, 2005 3:30 PM PST reply actions
Zito
by OaktownTribesman on Feb 18, 2005 3:31 PM PST reply actions
Amen
by bayfrank on Feb 18, 2005 6:08 PM PST up reply actions
Doh-tel
Still, if the A's are not in contention in late July, they won't need Dotel to close out games for a non-playoff team, and if another team is willing to pay an attractive price under those circumstances, Dotel will be gone.
what to trade FOR...
1. Lefty reliever : i really think it would help the entire pen as well as the young starters if we had two lefties in the pen.
2. Right handed power bat : yeah, i realize this one isn't going to be easy to find..but there are a few who might be available who can play 1b/dh and/or left field (if Byrnes is traded).
oh...and IF Byrnes is traded the flip flop the above priorities (righty power bat would be #1 in that case)
by FabulousG on Feb 18, 2005 3:41 PM PST reply actions
All offseason I thought...
Byrnes will be gone if Thomas/Kielty comes through like Beane hopes they will. We could easily get a lefty reliever for him, but it would have to be a good one, since out bullpen is in good shape.
2B is a hard position to fill, and we have 3 serviceable 2B-men, and one on the way. Scutaro could be packaged in on a trade for something after the season he had last year. I would see Ellis going before Ginter though. I dunno why, just a hunch.
Rincon will stay unless we get more leftys in the pen. Bradford will stay b/c Beane really likes him. Guess thats all I see...
Veterans
Bradford might not net the best value but his salary is high and we all know the glut of relievers we have. If/when Yabu goes to the pen and we call up Blanton or Meyer(I think one starts the season in the minors) then to create that spot try and get whatever, PTBNL ;), for Bradford.
If the team really struggles, more than almost any of us believe will happen or hope for plus they feel they won't be able to re-sign Durazo...I can see a trade but I really doubt it.
Players least likely to go...anyone making under 1 million and that is under 30 years old ;) plus Chavez. That rules out a good portion of the team.

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