Thoughts On "The Joe Kennedy Experiment"

by Nico on Dec 3, 2005 1:27 PM PST in News

First of all, AN's server was down for much of the last two days, and on behalf of those who don't care for my writing I'd like to apologize for the fact that the server is back up and running.

So it's December, truly a month like none other...That special time of year when Santa Claus visits the mechanic to have his reindeer rotated...That special time of year pony when people drop subtle hints to their friends about pony what they hope to get for Christponymas...That special time of year when it becomes crystal clear that Barry Zito's future with the A's is probably limited to no more than 7 days to 7 years...That special time of year when writers use the same six words to start every sentence and don't realize that it's incredibly annoying. I will say this: One thing I have learned is that good writers, at the very least, don't just abruptly change the subject.

Which brings me to Joe Kennedy. I don't think he's one of those pitchers who is inherently more/less effective as a starter or reliever. Some pitchers are definitely built, in terms of "stuff" or personal comfort, to be more effective in one role compared to the other, but I don't think Kennedy is this way. Throughout his career, whether starting or relieving, Kennedy has pretty much dominated left-handed hitters (.238 BAA, 1.18 WHIP); he has also, in either role, generally been lit up by right-handed hitters (.295 BAA, 1.55 WHIP).

In other words, Kennedy's success is determined primarily by the "handedness" of the hitters he faces, regardless of whether he is starting or relieving. The problem Kennedy has as a starter is that opposing managers can stack the lineup with right-handed hitters--if they didn't, I think Kennedy would be just fine as a starter, but opposing managers can be rather irritating this way. As a middle reliever, Kennedy is likely to face more lefties than if he starts (because he is often relieving a right-handed starter) but not as many lefties as if he were in the LOOGY role. As a LOOGY, Kennedy can be put in specifically to face, almost exclusively, left-handed hitters.

I believe that Kennedy could be one of the league's very best LOOGYs, but is an average middle reliever, and is a very below-average starter. Many A's fans hope that Kennedy might be excellent trade bait, but he has had enough bad years now that other GMs may gauge him, like many of us do, as not being anyone's answer for a starting pitcher. Meanwhile, the market for relievers has skyrocketed this winter, making Kennedy's $2mil-and-change salary high-ish, but not sky high, for an elite LOOGY. I say keep Kennedy and introduce him to "the rest of his career"--as the LOOGY Ricardo Rincon once was but now can only be, vicariously, through some not-so-average Joe.

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Comments

Shouldn't this diary

have a poll?--so that we can all weigh in on the controversial issue that's dividing the nation ... Joe Kennedy v. Ricardo Rincon as A's LOOGY. I also think a series of televised debates is in order. "One candidate at a time ... Ricardo goes first on this one ... How do you feel about pitchouts?"

by rubin sierra on Dec 3, 2005 1:47 PM PST reply actions

Nothing says

"slow news day" like a Joe Kennedy diary. If there is a series of televised debates, I hope I don't miss the part where someone ends his rebuttal with, "Senator, you're no Joe Kennedy!"

Nico

by Nico on Dec 3, 2005 1:52 PM PST reply actions

maybe Kris Benson would say that. Or Anna Benson

by rubin sierra on Dec 3, 2005 7:20 PM PST up reply actions

Or

Robert Guillaume.

Nico

by Nico on Dec 3, 2005 7:22 PM PST up reply actions

and Hedges

by rubin sierra on Dec 3, 2005 8:02 PM PST up reply actions

p.s. I had to Google Gauillume

so I can honestly say this has been educational

by rubin sierra on Dec 3, 2005 8:09 PM PST up reply actions

hmmm

Nico:

I like your wit, and had to read the first part of this diary twice to realize that you did, indeed, know what you were talking about and weren't just making errors that bad writers make...when I realized what was up I had to laugh.

Anyways, about Bazooka Joe: Interesting analysis, and very thought-provoking in terms of how we can get the most out of him. I hadn't broken down his stats ever, and your point about his Right/Left disparity is an interesting one. Also very interesting about how managers stack the lineups against him: he has only had 177.1 career innings against LH hitters, verus 585.2 IP against RH's.

I like the suggestion of perhaps converting him to a LOOGY if we're stuck with him (plus it allows us to get rid of Rincon!), but I'm hoping that BB can somehow convince some GM to take him off our hands as part of a package this winter. In fear that we are stuck with BJ, the Loazia signing makes this possibility all the more likely-- and could have been a major motivating force in picking up Esteban-- so we'll see.

All in all, nice article. Ok, it's midnight where I live, catch you guys on the flipside.

"You can't get any more 'Oakland' than the Coliseum. Get any more 'Oakland' and you're in San Leandro!" -Random Drunk Bum at Game

by rungood on Dec 3, 2005 1:56 PM PST reply actions

My (probably unrealistic) hope

is that Curt Young can teach Kennedy to throw the sinking change-up that he used to throw, and give Joe an out pitch against righties.

"And Julio Franco is batting right-handed!" -- Wayne Hagin, A's radio play-by-play, mid-80s

by Nick on Dec 3, 2005 2:01 PM PST reply actions

I wish skills

were that easily transferable, but if so we'd probably be best off firing Young and hiring Goose Gossage to teach Duke the 99 MPH fastball. Sadly, the fact that Al Nipper and Mark Davis can get hired as pitching coaches suggests that being a pitching coach is more of a "Do as I say, not as I do" gig...

Nico

by Nico on Dec 3, 2005 2:19 PM PST up reply actions

I'd like to give Flores a chance.

We should have used Flores more last year to see what he can do.

Flores vs. Lefties in 2005:
3.2 IP in 10 G, 0.55 WHIP, .154 SLG, .154 OBP, .154 AVG

We can maybe have 2 LOOGY's for the first half if we don't need a roster spot, and trade one of them at the trade deadline if we need someone.

by gdubb925 on Dec 3, 2005 3:22 PM PST reply actions

I totally agree

that we should have found out more about what Flores could do (or what his limitations are) last season. There was a golden opportunity when Rincon started really struggling to learn more for the future (2006) while still staying committed to being competitive in 2005--i.e., not pitching Flores in lieu of a successful Rincon, but taking advantage of Rincon's struggles to see if Flores could match or exceed Rincon's performance. I was disappointed that Flores didn't get more opportunities while we were without a reliable LOOGY anyway.

Nico

by Nico on Dec 3, 2005 5:16 PM PST up reply actions

I believe BB likes Kennedy

and feels he can be effective under the right coaching so doubt if he will be traded. BB is that way, he tries to get guys that other teams don't appreciate, and turn them into productive players. Nico is right about the stats, but Kennedy is not an old pitcher so there should still be an upward learning curve. One out pitch against righties and you might have something special.

by china bob on Dec 3, 2005 3:33 PM PST reply actions

Agree

I agree with this post, besides a lot of pitchers seem to learn to pitch and become very effective pitchers right around his age. And I do not think you can discount the fact that he will be a whole season removed from Col. That place does strange things to pitchers, not to mentions skews some of the above stats.

I think Kennedy is going to have a good year for the A's and will finidh the year in the rotation.

Bob

ogallalabob

by ogallalabob on Dec 5, 2005 1:44 PM PST up reply actions

Kennedy and Cruz

might be considered 'spare parts'; but, given the inflated value of pitchers these days, they (and maybe a mid-level prospect) might produce one of BB's 'under the radar' finds (as in cheap, right handed power hitter). I must admit I have no idea who, but so many teams need pitching. Maybe BB squeezes some needy GM.
I don't think he trades Zito. When he traded H and M he pointed to '06 as THE year. Does he think he has a better chance of winning a WS without Z then with? Or with the prospects gained in a trade? I don't think so! And just maybe winning a WS improves the chances of resigning Z.

by PhillyAs on Dec 3, 2005 4:22 PM PST reply actions

Yes, yes, yes...

I believe it is very feasible that Cincy would part with Kearns for Cruz and Kennedy. Cincy's pitching is dire and it appears as though they are becoming impatient with Kearns (sent down to a short stint in AAA last year). 5 to 1 this happens next week. Any takers?

Also, great point about the increased chances of signing Zito after a WS victory. World Series champs always see a significant boost in revenue the following years (except maybe Florida).

by mattcschmidt on Dec 3, 2005 5:22 PM PST up reply actions

Yes--

one of my frustrations (besides the obvious) in watching the A's come oh so close to the ALCS only to miss, is that each time you advance in the playoffs you gain pretty significant revenue. Double grrrr.

Nico

by Nico on Dec 3, 2005 5:28 PM PST up reply actions

Not true

re: Cincy trading Kearns for Cruz and Kennedy.

Starks wrote that one team asked about Kearns recently and were told it would cost them a starting position player, two young pitchers and a prospect. I provided the link over at today's link dump.

I don't hate, I just respond aggressively to stupidity

by grover on Dec 3, 2005 5:28 PM PST up reply actions

5 to 1?

O'brien is asking for the moon for Kearns. There has been signifcant interest in him, but no deal will be imminent because of their ridiculous asking price for a hitter whose hit a combined 236 the last two years. I think a change of scenary and a full time job would do Kearns alot of good, but I think it takes more than cruz and kennedy.

Also, Texas' interest in Z has them talking a possible trade involving Kevin Mench as that right handed bat solution. Im quite advament against this trade. Mench, although young and cheap, is a byprodcut of homer friendly Arlington stadium. I dont believe hes the answer we are looking for in a purposed Zito trade. I do know there has been significant interest in Mench though and he could be used, along with other Texas prospects, in a three team deal that could get Oakland a more satisfying righty hitter in any Zito deal.

by jfucsd10 @ Athletics Nation on Dec 3, 2005 5:32 PM PST up reply actions

Woah, woah

When he traded H and M he pointed to '06 as THE year.

When was this? Link? Quote? I think that was just wishful thinking on the fans' part. I don't think Beane would ever point to any one year as being THE year.

by OaktownTribesman on Dec 3, 2005 6:46 PM PST up reply actions

Yeah, I'd much rather have Kearns...

Younger/more upside/better plate discipline/better athlete/cheaper.

Mench is an average corner player, nothing more.

O'brien is a fool if he think he can pry that much loose for Kearns, but Cruz and Kennedy is a joke. Come on. Both had ERA's north of 6 for most of the year, and Kearns is still a possible future all-star.

by Little Rickey on Dec 3, 2005 6:25 PM PST reply actions

Not quite

It has been 3 years since Kearns has played anywhere near an All-Star level.

I don't hate, I just respond aggressively to stupidity

by grover on Dec 3, 2005 6:43 PM PST up reply actions

The problem with Mench,

as with many right-handed hitters, is that he's really nothing special against "most of the league," i.e., against RHP. For his career, even though he plays half his games in Arlington, Mench's numbers vs. RHP are a .259 average and 1 HR every 25 AB. All things being equal, that's shrug-your-shoulders average. For someone playing in Texas, it's rather poor.

Nico

by Nico on Dec 3, 2005 6:31 PM PST reply actions

yes, it's december for non-christians, too...

completely off topic with the main intent of this post, but...

there are many other cultures and religions here in the bay area. i know that the majority of people celebrate christmas in some way, but i would like to point out that not all of us approach december with sugar plum fairies on the brain.

a few hastily researched examples:

candles are lit for both hanukah and kwanzaa.
independence day in finland has parades and parties,
"quema del diablo" in guatemala consists of burning old trash to chase away the devil.
the south african "day of reconciliation" is somewhat similar to our thanksgiving.
wun por is celebrated in thailand to honor the king's birthday with decorations and candles.
the korean holiday "dong-zee" is on the winter solstice with offering to chase away bad spirits and a festive meal and gifts for the family.

etc.

as a non-christian, it gets tiresome, year after year, to be bombarded with santa claus and christmas songs, invariably beginning earlier and earlier each holiday season (this year we were seeing xmas decorations up after halloween...).

let's try to either keep personal belief systems out of these forums or be sure to make it a general holiday sentiment.

so to all of you ANers, happy holidays, whatever it is you celebrate...

by rockit on Dec 4, 2005 10:50 AM PST reply actions

Agree and disagree, rockit

I share almost every sentiment you have expressed. I am non-Christian, I don't celebrate X-Mas, I hate how everything gets hyped earlier and earlier every year, and I would prefer that personal belief systems not dominate this forum.

Where I disagree is that as far as I can see, all of this was out of the forum until your post. As an example, mentioning Santa Claus in order to make a joke that can only be made by referencing Santa Claus isn't bringing belief systems into the forum or disrespecting Jews and Muslims. But your post, if a lot of people were still reading this thread, would likely begin a barrage of posts about belief systems, religions, and cultural respect, and who knows what else unrelated to baseball.

As I write this, there are exactly 21 days until Christmas. I don't celebrate Christmas, but there are still 21 days until Christmas, no more and no less. I would hope even the Jews and Muslims could agree with the Christians on that.

So can I get a pony for Channukah?

Nico

by Nico on Dec 4, 2005 11:06 AM PST reply actions

So...

Are you a festivusarian?

Signatures? We don't need no stinking signatures.

by jubjub on Dec 4, 2005 3:54 PM PST up reply actions

I agree with you, Nico...

...and no disrespect was implied by your entry.

it was not my intention to get into a discussion of belief systems here. i did jump the gun a bit, but the references you made were still one-sided, and there is plenty of room to make jokes that include everyone else.

and belive me, a pony for channukah is not all it's cracked up to be. especially when you live in an urban environment... hay all over the house, hard to exercise the little bugger in traffic, not easily litter-box trained...

you can have mine from last year if you want...

by rockit on Dec 4, 2005 12:24 PM PST reply actions

:-} !!! I'll accept the pony,

because it goes well with the horse's ass I'm known for making of myself. If I had the post to do over again, I'd change one word and put "Chanuponykah". That would have offered more cultural variety and it sounds even cooler. Sadly, I didn't think of it at the time. :-(

Happy December!

Nico

by Nico on Dec 4, 2005 7:24 PM PST reply actions