Getting our minor league system back on track
Our Major League roster is looking very strong for the coming year, but this off season has caused an average minor league system to look even more suspect.
Losses- and www.scout.com ranking on our prospect list:
Either-3 (trade)
Majewski-43 (trade)
Alexi Ogando-23 (Rule 5)
Only real additions have been of Roney and Gaudin neither of whom are anything to get too excited about.
In addition Loazia has cost us our first round pick meaning our first pick in 06 draft will likely be around 70.
So my question to AN is what is the next step? How do we rebuild a once great minor league system or do you feel it should not be a concern.
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Not a concern
by dchu on
Dec 23, 2005 11:49 AM PST
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Ogando and Majewski
One thing to remember is that not every draftee/top prospect is designed to reach the ML level with the team that drafts them. Part of the point of having those guys is to be able to trade them
Despite losing Ethier, the Oakland farm system is still fairly strong---definitely in the top half, if not the top ten.
At the higher levels we've still got: Garcia, Barton, Herrera, Braden, Windsor, Meyer, Melillo, Suzuki, Powell (potentially), Putnam, I'm sure I'm forgetting some (I'm doing this quickly)
Lower down we've got: Lansford, Italiano, Pennington, Buck, Robnett, and several others.
Far more than lots of other teams, and one of the reasons that Beane could afford to give up our first round pick in '06, although its still painful.
by Alien on
Dec 23, 2005 11:49 AM PST
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if Ogando not a prospect
by novaoakland on
Dec 23, 2005 1:01 PM PST
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That's BA's error, not ours.
He hasn't been a prospect since 2004, in my eyes.
by Ozzz on
Dec 23, 2005 1:43 PM PST
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Don't you write for Scout?
And my point is more that if he is a top 30 prospect we are in trouble to which I am sure you agree.
by novaoakland on
Dec 23, 2005 1:55 PM PST
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re
If you've got 12-15 solid prospects, and maybe a star or two, you're doing really well.
Even in the most stacked systems--such as the Angels--there are only 4-5 players who might get that "star-potential" status (Wood, Hendricks, Aybar, possibly Callaspo or Morales). Also, before the start of the '05 season, not all of those players would have that tag. In the A's system, someone like Javier Herrera, Richie Robnett, or Danny Putnam has the potential to break out like that and make all those lists.
Like others have said, the A's had four rookies on the ML squad last year. Both Street and Blanton had terrific years, and DJ also had a nice debut. The last thing we need is to have a logjam of talent at triple-A, and thats why we can afford to give up a draft pick or two.
by Alien on
Dec 23, 2005 2:18 PM PST
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Robnett was horible this year
Yes I agree the A's had some great young people come up but guess what.... We need people to replace those guys in 3 years when they start making real money. and all those guys (minus street) were in system 3+ years before they made it so we need to have those types soon.
by novaoakland on
Dec 23, 2005 2:22 PM PST
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ok
Angels
Dodgers
Brewers
Marlins
Braves?
Rangers?
Twins?
Diamondbacks
Indians
Devil Rays
what other teams have a better system that puts us i n the bottom half. Can you name six more teams?
And keep in mind that a good farm system isn't only about having a couple of stars, but about having a solid corps of potential regulars.
As to the list above, I don't personally think the Rangers or Braves have better systems, I'm just trying to include any possible team.
by Alien on
Dec 23, 2005 2:35 PM PST
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I would say braves do.
I will give you 6 more but let me think about it. I am not alone in saying A's system is in lower half.
by novaoakland on
Dec 23, 2005 2:58 PM PST
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Tangent
Edwin Jackson
Victor Diaz (NYM)
Koyie Hill
Joe Thurston
Jason Repko
Shane Victorino (Phil)
The Dodgers have always been loaded with great prospects who NEVER make it to the big leagues. Why does everyone keep giving them high marks?
by grover on
Dec 23, 2005 3:17 PM PST
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Couple others
Tiger --with Harden like pitchers RHPs Justin Verlander and Joel Zumaya at the top followed by OF Cameron Maybin they look really strong.
Then you are getting into area of alot of debate.
Royals and National have some elite offensive talent (because they have had high draft picks.
Rockies are tough to judge because all the AAA pitchers get shelled in Colorado Spring and the Offense over perfoms but with guys like Ian Stewart and Ryan Sheally they have some real threats.
Bottom line is we have a depth of average guys which is great but in terms of talent who can step up in 2006 or 2007 it is light.
Did not want to base A's system with this post I just felt we needed to improve our system especially if we want to make a big mid season trade for that final piece of the puzzle and if Meyer does not bounce back.
by novaoakland on
Dec 23, 2005 3:24 PM PST
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well
One thing I like about our system now is that aside from Barton, we do have some guys with significant upside at the lower levels. We probably won't need them for several years.
BA is really high on Pennington, and he could be ready in two years to take over for Ellis. I really feel that Herrera is going to seriously break out at AA this year--and he will only be 21. I don't think its that unreasonable to think he could take over Payton's slot in '07 or thereabouts. By the time Haren, Blanton, et al are approaching free agency, the hope is that Lansford, Italiano, or one or two of the other HSers drafted this year will be ready. I really feel that by the time the A's need to dip seriously into their system again, the right prospects will be at the high levels.
Sorry if I'm getting too into this topic, but it interests me a lot more than all the rampant trade talk threads:) I just can't believe we have to wait until the beginning of February to get BA's A's report.
by Alien on
Dec 23, 2005 3:47 PM PST
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Yeah we are like one of the Last
by novaoakland on
Dec 23, 2005 4:23 PM PST
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3 years?!
Every single level of Oakland minor league ball made it to the playoffs in 2004. Many of them did likewise in 2005, and Rookie Ball is stacked with high school arms that are explosive.
If you seriously want to be all upset that we're not humiliating every other teams minors with our superhero-like prospects, then go ahead and be upset, but the reality is that of every 30 prospects, all but 22 are usually traded, waived, cut or never make the jump to the bigs.
And I think I could name 8 guys in the current system who will be dominant in 3 years, and another 8 who could well be.
Reasons to be cheerful: plenty.
by Ozzz on
Dec 23, 2005 4:00 PM PST
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So where is our system
by novaoakland on
Dec 23, 2005 4:25 PM PST
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Depends on how you define it.
If you just look at AAA, it's bottom 12.
If you look at AA, top 5.
If you look at single A (from short-season to high-A), it's top 5.
If you look at rookie ball, it's filth.
So overall, I'd say we're looking good for three seasons time, and mighty fine for the now.
Top 10? Sure. Maybe better.
by Ozzz on
Dec 23, 2005 5:35 PM PST
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At times I do.
Ogando's a wash. I'm very happy that the Rangers are spending money on him.
by Ozzz on
Dec 23, 2005 3:55 PM PST
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My inly point being
by novaoakland on
Dec 23, 2005 4:24 PM PST
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I never heard that our minor leagues were
by carp on
Dec 23, 2005 12:20 PM PST
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We were one of the 7-8 best
AS someonelse mentioned we have alot of average players coming up. But no Stars.
by novaoakland on
Dec 23, 2005 1:04 PM PST
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Question:
We have a young, talented team that is moving on up. Who do you drop for a promoted AAA player? DJ? Kennedy? Sarloos? Kielty?
by Ozzz on
Dec 23, 2005 1:45 PM PST
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I like our 2006 team
by novaoakland on
Dec 23, 2005 1:56 PM PST
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Yes, but little is open even in 2007...
About the only slots I see opening up is maybe Zito's starting rotation spot in 2007. And, really I think that will go to a 5th rotation type guy. Not a top of the rotation guy, assuming Zito doesn't get re-signed. And, there is Meyers. Maybe a 4th outfield spot (JayPay or Kielty), and possibly a bullpen spot. All cheap to acquire through trade or free agency, so not really a need from the minors. Backup catcher, but that just happens to be where there are plenty of options in the system. An opening for Barton will have to be made (outfielder maybe) Say this year is Swisher 1B, and Kielty/JayPay, Kotsay, Bradley OF, and DJ DH (of course that will rotate some). Then, next year, Swisher back to RF and at least one of JayPay Kielty gone, Barton 1B and DJ DH.
In 2008 starting catcher unless Kendall makes a nice deal, but again lots of options in the minors, but too early to tell at this point. The tough one will probably be 2B, I am not sure whether we have Ellis through 2008 or not.
But, the above back of the napkin analysis suggests that the system needs to be geared to provide bodies in 2009-2011 timeframe. Which if you look at this year's draft, suggests that is exactly what the plan is. The starting rotation is pretty set through 2009, so there is time to develop high school pitchers. And, who was the first pick... A college middle infielder, anyone think he is currently targeted for the 2B spot in 2008? In 2006, I would guess there will still be a significant number of high schoolers drafted. In 2007, I would expect to see a shift back to college players who can be ready in 2009-2011. given the current state of the roster I would suggest that the place to look at the health of the A's system is at single A.
by Donner on
Dec 25, 2005 5:02 PM PST
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the 07 team you descirbe
by novaoakland on
Dec 26, 2005 12:50 PM PST
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What the A's have
But yeah. Our system's stregnth is importantly, but look at the MLB team. We are set at 6 positions for the next few years. We have people comming up who can fill the remaining slots.
And for the rotation, we are set at 4 of the slots, with someone set to come in for 2007.
by Zonis on
Dec 23, 2005 12:25 PM PST
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Meyer will not be a star
Putting him in the same place as Barton might be a jinx.
by kvn on
Dec 23, 2005 12:44 PM PST
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That's a totally appropriate
by Nico on
Dec 23, 2005 12:52 PM PST
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Also, the surpluses
by Nico on
Dec 23, 2005 12:32 PM PST
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Hopefully after a championship 2006 season
by Dig the Long Ball on
Dec 23, 2005 12:56 PM PST
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Lots of question marks
The A's have surprising good pitching depth in AA and AAA, the question is which arms have the potential to be difference makers at the ML level. Sacramento could feature a rotation of Dan Meyer(25) Chad Gaudin(23) Shane Komine(25) John Rheinecker(27) and Juan Cruz(25) with Jairo Garcia(23) closing in the pen. That's very good depth, better than most teams feature at AAA, but they all have question marks that shadow their talent. Meyer, Rheino and Komine are all recoverubg from 2005 injuries while Cruz and Gaudin have been inconsistent in their big league appearances. Garcia must still work on his control, although his strike out totals alleviate some of the worry.
In stark contrast, there is very little help available from Sac's everyday line-up. Brian Stavisky(26) Jeremy Brown(26) and Matt Watson(27) are the best of a weak bunch.
Midland is likely to feature Jason Windsor(24) Dallas Braden(22) and Brad Knox(24) in the rotation with Connor Robertson(24) closing. This is probably a make or break year for Windsor and Knox, especially if they have dreams of being SP in the big leagues. Their stuff is as good as it's going to get, if they don't move quickly up the ladder they'll get left behind. This will be Robertson's first taste of AA (although he did get a sample of AAA cooking last year) and he needs to refine his control.
The Midland line-up features a bit more hope than Sac's. Kurt Suzuki(22) Daric Barton(21) Kevin Melillo(24) and Dannt Putnam(23) offer some potential fireworks for Oakland's 2007 roster. Still, questions surround all four players. Barton and Putnam need to show more power than they have so far, and Suzuki's bat isn't enough to get him to the Show if his defense doesn't pick back up. Melillo needs to carry last year's success into the 2006 season. If he does, he'll be looking at a September call-up.
Things shift at the A-ball level. Oakland has a strong crop of offense at Stockton, led by Richie Robnett(22) Cliff Pennington(22) Javier Herrera(21) Landon Powell(24) and Travis Buck(22). Obviously Powell is a little old for the league and he needs to come back strong from knee surgery to get caught up. Pitching wise, the A's have Mike Madsen(23) and Ben Fritz(25). After that, your guess is as good as mine. Fritz is coming back from TJ surgery and I wouldn't be surprised to see him get moved to the bullpen by mid-season in an attempt to accelerate his development up the ladder.
The A's have a bunch of young arms, mostly from last year's draft class, that will find themselves assigned somewhere between Stockton, Kane County and Vancouver. So back to novaoakland's question: What's the next step?
With Oakland losing its 1st round pick thanks to Loaiza's signing, I think the single most important thing Beane and Co. can do in next year's draft is use their 2nd round pick on the best available player, regardless of position or contract demands. The A's don't have to worry about signing a 1st round pick, they can combine that money with the money they'd normally expect to spend on a second rounder. That way they can draft and sign the next Justin Smoak they're interested in.
by grover on
Dec 23, 2005 2:37 PM PST
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Good point on having extra money in the draft.
by novaoakland on
Dec 23, 2005 3:26 PM PST
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With our Major legue roster, and the drafting of
by theblackpearl on
Dec 23, 2005 2:40 PM PST
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prospect lists are overblown
Take Duke, Saarloos, Harang, Ellis... these are guys who have been important to us but never have hit the radar of our own farm system in the BA mold. Gaudin looks to me a fantastic pick-up, of this same type.
Komine could easily become a useful pitcher, though he will not be lighting up the prospect lists either.
Ethier for Bradley was a great trade talent-wise, it makes the farm system look worse, but not the depth chart. And I love where the A's depth chart is.
Or take DJ, everybody knew he was likely a MLB ready hitter last off season, but because of his age, he was only considered a fair prospect, though his MLB value to us is as good as that of a higher rated prospect to their teams.
Anyway, we have a ton of guys who are under the radar but could be useful players. We have a lot of arms now, and probably some of them will look really good in July. We have a stable of guys who look like good AAA hitters, that won't be too bad in emergency situations, and some of these guys could keep improving and become major league worthy. It happens. Stavisky for example still could become a decent hitter, but he'll never be a 'prospect'.
The 2004 and 2005 drafts look real nice to me, the main hole in our system being that no one from our 2003 draft is left who looks promising. Quintanilla, Ethier, and Majewski have been traded, Sullivan was damaged goods when drafted, Snyder was decent before missing a season. No one from the later rounds has emerged either.
So to me, the big thing the A's can do is draft better than they did in 2003. But it looks like they have already learned and changed their strategy a bit, a lot if you factor in the HS arms drafted in 05.
by jakarta on
Dec 23, 2005 4:28 PM PST
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does everyone forget about windser??
by gWiLiKeRzZz on
Dec 24, 2005 6:29 PM PST
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errr. windsor
by gWiLiKeRzZz on
Dec 24, 2005 6:30 PM PST
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Love windsor
by novaoakland on
Dec 26, 2005 12:51 PM PST
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