The quest for more offense in 2006

While ranting about the Loaiza signing a fellow ANer and I got into a discussion... OK an energetic discussion... about the state of the A's offense. From Billy Beane on down we all know that the A's need to upgrade offensively while we all expect (or hope) that our young hitters will to continue to improve. The conflict lies in determining just how good of a bat Beane needs to bring in. If the A's can expect significant improvement from the existing roster than Beane doesn't need to make a monumental deal, whether it be a trade or a free agent signing, to find what would hopefully be the finishing piece. A bolder move will be required if Oakland can't count on the current line-up to perform as needed.

It occurred to me that when most folks at AN, and I include myself in this group, discuss what we could expect from certain hitters next year given a full season of at bats or health or with a "year under their belt" we tend to focus solely on what that player did this year vs. what we think they can do next year. This is our great mistake. What we should be asking is can Dan Johnson, for example, do better in 2006 than he AND Hatty did in 2005. Because Crosby and Swisher and Johnson and Payton aren't just going to have to improve upon their 2005 performances to strengthen the A's offense next season, they are going to have to improve to the point were they surpass the combined efforts of several players, otherwise individual achievement might only lead to aggregate stagnation.

I came up with a formula that I believe paints a fairly accurate picture of what the A's did offensively in 2005 and predicts what type of 2006 performances would be needed by individual players to match this past season's  group efforts. From that we can determine, or at least intelligently discuss, whether certain players can be expected to achieve or exceed the 2005 levels. Over the past 7 years the A's have averaged 5,581 at bats a season. Now in reality the top 3rd of the batting order tend to get more AB than the bottom 3rd, but the A's tend to have a flexible line-up and the #7 hitter on Tuesday can be batting 2nd on Wednesday. I'm almost positive that there is a way to more accurately determine the number of seasonal AB each batting slot receives in a 5,581 AB season, but for the sake of simplicity (and my sanity) I am going to say that each position in the line-up receives 620 AB a year. 620 AB is our baseline; there will be a standard deviation of 5% to keep from getting bogged down in the minutia of extrapolating the data to exactly 620 AB. I've also modified the overall OBP to not include the HBP and Sac Fly numbers because I don't their inclusion will alter the data enough to make the extra work worthwhile. And again for the sake of simplicity I am only to going evaluate the best offensive option at each position and it's cheating to put players in positions they don't belong (i.e. Dan Johnson at 2nd base!) Remember, we are assuming that only one player per position will receive the full 620 AB.

The only leap of faith that I ask from AN is to allow me to combine the data from certain positions into one heading. Rather than try and determine how many at bats Scutaro had at SS vs. 2nd base I've combined the SS and 2nd base data into Middle Infield Production. I did the same with LF and RF as well as 1B and DH. Well, I didn't call them Middle Infield Production I called them Corner OF Production and 1B/DH Production, respectively. Catcher, CF and 3rd base were all manned by players who's individual AB were within (or very close to) the 5% deviation I've allowed myself. This is our 2006 line-up using players currently on the 25-man roster:

C: Kendall
1B: Johnson
2B: Ellis
3B: Chavez
SS: Crosby
LF: Payton
CF: Kotsay
RF: Swisher
DH: Kielty

Middle Infield Production 2005

Player      AB/Hits    Runs    2B/HR    BB

Ellis           434/137      76        21/13     44    .316 BA/.384 OBP
Scutaro     381/94        48        22/9       36
Ginter        137/22       12          5/3       13
Crosby      333/92        66        25/9       35    .276 BA/.346 OBP
Total        1285/345    202        73/34    128   .268 BA/.335 OBP

Analysis for 2006

The MIP was a near bulls-eye in regards to average AB per season (620 X 2 = 1240) and well within the 5% deviation I gave myself. Once again applying KISS principles, I split the numbers in half and say the A's need two MI who can put up the following line:

.268/.335  101 Runs  37 2B  17 HR  64 BB

This was a relatively easy position to evaluate. Crosby has already shown that he can match those power numbers but I'm not certain that he can maintain the BA and right now the 8 point difference between his BA and the baseline is the main thing keeping his OBP up. His AAA numbers suggest that he'll be able to increase his BB and that will be a key to his continued development. I think it would be premature to expect a break-out year from Crosby in 2006, but his on-base skills should come close to matching the 2005 baseline and his power numbers should exceed it. Ellis has never hit for much power and I think he'll max out at 15 HR/35 2B annual. I know some people think last year was the beginning of a power boost, but Ellis never hit more than 38 2B in the minors and 13 HR is his career high. He hit over .300 in A-ball but he only batted .273 in AAA and is a career .276/.348/.411 hitter in the major leagues. While I don't think he'll hit .316 again I don't find it hard to believe that he could hit in the .285-.290 range, and with his defense that's more than enough for Oakland. His BA and OBP should exceed the 2005 baseline which would compensate for his failure to reach the power figures. I think it would be fair to expect the Crosby/Ellis combo too slightly, but not significantly, improve upon the Middle Infield Production from the 2005 team.

Corner Outfield Production 2005

Player        AB/Hits      Runs      2B/HR      BB

Swisher       462/109        66          32/21       55     .236 BA/.322 OBP
Kielty          377/99          55          20/10       50
Payton        275/74          38            9/13       14     .269 BA/.309 OBP
Byrnes        192/51          30          15/07       14                                              
Total          1306/333      189          76/51      133    .255 BA/.324 OBP

Analysis for 2006

The COP is 5 AB beyond the 5% deviation I gave myself but re-doing the math to 1240 AB drops 9 runs and 2 doubles from the cumulative score and that's too minor to worry about. Splitting the numbers produces:

.255/.324  95 Runs  38 2B  26 HR  67 BB

Those numbers, in particular the OBP, are fairly anemic. The power and BB totals are within Swisher's reach, but the big question with him is his batting average. Using his 2004 AAA numbers as a template (.269/.406  28 2B  29 HR  103 BB) I believe it's likely that Swisher can push his on-base numbers significantly beyond the 2005 baseline but at the cost of slowing (not stopping) his power development. I'm not sure he'll surpass the power numbers from last year. Like Crosby, Swisher should be expected to use 2006 as his consolidation year and not expect a break-out performance.

Payton is a player a lot of people have touted as a key figure for improving the A's offense next year and I have said repeatedly that I don't believe that to be a realistic idea. So I acknowledge my anti-Payton bias and will let the numbers speak for themselves. I'm going to extrapolate his best seasons to 620 AB in an attempt to see what we can hope to expect from him next year.

Jay Payton Career Numbers: http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/players/5773/career.

2000 (NYM)             488 AB   63 Runs   23 2B   17 HR   30 BB  .291/.331
                             620 AB    80 Runs   30 2B   22 HR   39 BB

2002 (NYM)             275 AB   33 Runs     6 2B     8 HR   21 BB   .284/.336
         (COL)            170 AB   36 Runs   14 2B     8 HR     8 BB   .335/.376
         (TOT)            445 AB   69 Runs    20 2B   16 HR   29 BB   .303/.351
                             620 AB   97 Runs    28 2B   23 HR   41 BB

2003 (COL)             600 AB   93 Runs   32 2B   28 HR   43 BB   .302/.354
                                      (No need to project 620 AB)

2005 (BOS)             133 AB   24 Runs     7 2B     5 HR   10 BB   .263/.313
         (OAK)            275 AB   38 Runs     9 2B   13 HR   14 BB   .269/.302
         (TOT)             408 AB   62 Runs   16 2B   18 HR   24 BB   .267/.306
                              620 AB   95 Runs   26 2B   23 HR   37 BB

Payton's 2005 Oakland numbers give the impression that he's capable of greater things, but it's important to note that in my research of Jay's career I found that August was almost always his most productive month. Jay Payton is a career .282/.330/.443 hitter and those numbers, particularly his on-base numbers, are significantly inflated by his season and a half in Colorado. Even the most optimistic projection would be hard pressed to see him matching the base numbers across the board. I believe the A's are looking at a slight drop-off in Corner OF Production given the current roster structure.

1B/DH Production

Player        AB/Hits     Runs    2B/HR     BB

Durazo         152/36         15         6/4         14
Hatty            464/119       52       19/7          51
Johnson        375/103       54       21/15        50    .275 BA/.355 OBP
Total            991/258      121       46/26      115    .260 BA/.337 OBP
                  1240 AB       152       58/33      144

Analysis for 2006

Various A's spent time at DH last year so I had to find the equivalent numbers over a full season's AB. Splitting the numbers produces a pathetic baseline:

.260/.337  76 Runs  29 2B  17 HR  72 BB

That's just ugly. Dan Johnson practically matched those power numbers in 375 AB and given his combined production between Oakland and Sacramento I think it's a fairly safe assumption to believe that he will significantly out-produce the 2005 baseline and he should give the A's an above-average 1st baseman in 2006. DJ is the one player A's management can count on to give them a significant boost in production next year. Although Bobby Kielty's numbers are not factored in the above production totals, his 2005 numbers were a part of the Corner OF Production table. This study is based on the current 25-man roster and it is my belief that Kielty is the better DH option than Marco Scutaro. A quick reminder of Kielty's 2005 season: .263/.350/.395  377 AB  55 Runs  20 2B  10 HR  50 BB.

On the surface it would appear that Kielty would be able to surpass the 2005 baseline but the reality is he would be hard pressed to even match those numbers as a full time DH. The bulk of Bobby Kielty's success comes against LH pitching and he could only expect 20-30 more AB against southpaws as the full-time DH. His .227/.322/.350 line against RH pitching is likely to continue and his overall numbers would plummet. I suppose a Kielty/Scutaro platoon could be expected to match and maybe even surpass the 2005 baseline... but I think my point has been made. The A's would be lucky to see their DH match last year's totals, and that would be bad luck indeed.

The three players we haven't talked about are Eric Chavez, Mark Kotsay and Jason Kendall. These three are going to be in the line-up every day if healthy and their numbers pretty much speak for themselves. A Chavez analysis is probably worth its own diary but I think it safe to say everyone hopes he can bounce back from his worst year since his rookie season. Whether his shoulder will let him is another question. Kendall has got to hit better than he did last year, but a return to his 2003-2004 level of production seems unlikely unless he gets more rest. Kotsay should improve upon his 2005 OBP and push it back into the .350 range but he hit only 2 more doubles in 2004 than he did in 2005 and 35/15 (2B/HR) seems to be a reliable measure.

So what can we expect from the A's 2006 offense? The two players who seem best poised to make a significant improvement in the A's aggregate offensive totals are Eric Chavez and Dan Johnson, and Chavez is entering 2006 with some serious question marks. The internal potential for growth seems lacking and an additional consistent, productive bat is needed if the A's hope to make significant improvement over their 2005 offensive performance. Frank Thomas and Nomar Garciaparra are low-cost(?) options that cannot be counted on to provide that type of production. The A's are going to have to find a full-time bat, preferably one who can hit RH pitching, and that is likely to cost them money.

Money they already spent on Loaiza.