Zito's Future? Don't Read Between The Lines, Read The Lines

by Nico on Dec 2, 2005 8:19 AM PST in News

There is a huge difference between being unpredictable and being dishonest. Just as people "figured out" that the A's were most interested in guys with high OBPs, the A's went out and stockpiled a gaggle of exceptional relievers. Just as people "figured out" that the A's were built on the "big 3," two of them were traded in the same week. Just as people "figured out" that the A's couldn't afford to dabble in the free agent market, they paid $7million/year for a free agent pitcher with somewhat pedestrian career numbers. All of which suggests that one would be wise not to put too much money either way on Barry Zito's future.

But as unpredictable as Billy Beane has been, I have also found him to be utterly honest. He never said he wouldn't trade Hudson and Mulder--which was a notion so unpredictable that nobody really thought to ask. Beane never said he most valued a player with a high OBP; he said he valued the "undervalued," and never went out of his way to correct the many people who acted like he said something else. In his interview with Blez at the beginning of spring training, Beane discussed many players he planned to keep all season, citing Dotel and Zito by name--but he never mentioned Eric Byrnes, whom he traded mid-season.

Billy is sometimes evasive, simply because he can't always say what he is planning to do and he refuses to lie. Billy won't say he's keeping Zito and he won't say he's dealing Zito, because GMs tend not to tell the fans first and then go tell the other GMs. So you have to listen to the few things Beane is willing to say, and infer the rest. At the time of the Hudson and Mulder trades, Beane said the 2005 team would be the worst A's team in the next 5 years, but that the 2005 team could still be competitive in vying for a playoff berth (which it ultimately did). He said the team was built to compete strongly in 2006, and beyond. This is what we know.

Last week, the A's added Esteban Loiaza, leaving fans to wonder even more, "Where does all this leave Barry Zito?" Among Billy Beane's greatest strengths, in my opinion, is his ability to hold the immediate future and the distant future together. Last winter was about "reloading" for the future at the expense of the immediate season--and Beane was up front about that. Anything Beane does this winter will be designed to improve the team now and later, not one or the other. Teams planning to be highly competitive in the coming season don't trade their top starters. I feel confident that Zito will pitch for the A's in 2006, and suspect that (barring a surprising "hometown discount deal)" Zito will then be allowed to walk as another example of a player simply outgrowing the A's capacity to pay him. By then the A's will have had another entire year to develop, trade for, or sign a pitcher who can enhance a rotation anchored by (presumably, at the moment) Harden, Haren, Blanton, and Loiaza. At the moment, putting together everything Beane has said, I think that's the only scenario that fits. So that's my prediction and I'm sticking with it.

By the way, I wrote this Thursday night, so if Zito has already been traded by the time you read this, I just want to go on record as saying: I knew they'd deal him.

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I agree with your prediction...

...the first one. About Zito staying in '06. :)

That's what I do during the offseason regarding the A's. Don't expect anything.

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by FormerHuntsvilleStar on Dec 2, 2005 8:44 AM PST reply actions

I second that.

It is hard to think about the A's without Zito. But it was the same way with all the other players that aren't here anymore. Especially, Hudson and Mulder. If I was Billy Beane I wouldn't have paid Loiaza that much and would have used it on Zito. But that is why I am not Billy Beane and not the G.M. I realize Billy is doing what is best for the team. And that's why "In Billy We Trust!"

Ben "The Party" Hall GO A's

by benhall2121 on Dec 2, 2005 12:52 PM PST up reply actions

We Can't Let Zito Walk

We need to get a couple established young prospects for Zito. If he walks, we get two 1st Round Draft Choices. Draft Choices are crapshoots, and they cost about 2-Million to sign (each).

I would rather see BB & Company sign Zito to a long term deal, or trade Zito for some established propects (Jackson & Quinton Types). I don't want to see us get a Jeremy Brown/Snyder/Sullivan type in exchange for one of the best left handers in the game.

Trade or Sign Zito!

Let's Go Oak-Land!

by Colorado Fan on Dec 2, 2005 2:13 PM PST up reply actions

Don't forget

The A's would only receive two 1st round picks if Zito's new team picked 16th or later in the 1st round.

Otherwise it's a second round pick!

And if said team signed another FA rated higher than Zito the A's would get a 3rd round pick.

I don't hate, I just respond aggressively to stupidity

by grover on Dec 2, 2005 5:01 PM PST up reply actions

Not that I doubt what you're saying...

(especially from another purple-penned warrior) but can you cite some MLB "law" which define(s) all the "who can get traded, when" kind of rules?

I'm not one of the 'Stat-Gifted' folks so I need to have things explained to me! hehehe

Thank You Bill...

Go A's

by NomAd on Dec 2, 2005 8:59 PM PST up reply actions

drat...

changed it to 'law;' but didn't change the 'define(s)' part to 'defines.' Hate that when that happens!

Thank You Bill...

Go A's

by NomAd on Dec 2, 2005 9:02 PM PST up reply actions

but...

A's draft choices are rarely bad especially in comparison to other teams...

All of the players you mention will still contribute to the A's in some necessary way shape or form...

In fact, the whole A's organization is built on the draft and the idea that it doesn't have to be a crapshoot (and the A's coincidentally have turned each of their picks into a potential lottery)

For every Snyder you get a Dallas Braden and some such player.

Poor ol' draft always gettin mocked... Please lay off of the lil guy

by Alon on Dec 2, 2005 6:16 PM PST up reply actions

Trade

Isn't it safer to grab a couple MLB ready players in exchange for Zito?

Let's Go Oak-Land!

by Colorado Fan on Dec 3, 2005 9:33 AM PST up reply actions

Way to CYOB

Well done.

And an excellent point about BB valuing the undervalued.

Being an economist, I've always thought Moneyball was more of an investment book than one about baseball.

------ 84.6% of all statistics are made up.

by gallopingael on Dec 2, 2005 8:46 AM PST reply actions

Your sig reminds me of the old adage...

'9 out of 10 doctors agree, that last guy is an idiot.'

There are only two races in Baseball, Right Handers and Left Handers.

by Zonis on Dec 2, 2005 8:55 AM PST up reply actions

Moneyball

is more like a strategy for taking advantage of any unbalanced market, and it's just applied to baseball. That's what I got from it, at least.

Go A's -- Nebraska

by Ryan Armbrust on Dec 2, 2005 9:26 AM PST up reply actions

moneyball

I think the author actually defined it somewhere as valuing the undervalued... or at least BB did

Even if they didn't, that's exactly what I got from the book as well and is what most of my ludicrous half-coherent posts are about

by Alon on Dec 2, 2005 6:20 PM PST up reply actions

Nico

This has been my view since the day the season ended.

With Loaiza the A's have the best pitching staff in the league. Should Haren or Blanton falter, or Harden develop injury problems, Kennedy or Saarloos in the pen (I think one of them will be moved somewhere) provides terrific insurance.

If all 5 are healthy and reasonably productive, it will be the best rotation in the game. I don't think they will allow the team to get off to its customary slow start.

And I think Beane thinks he can get a decent bat with some of his other parts-- such as a minor league catcher, Kennedy/Cruz, and perhaps one other prospect-- Herrera or Robnett, for example. Or even Ethier.

oaktoon

by oaktoon on Dec 2, 2005 9:15 AM PST reply actions

zito zito zito

I am on the fence over this. I think if the A's get blown away with the right deal {proven pitcher,bat,big league caliber prospect} zito is gone. I agree about not getting off to a slow start again. I believe they will deal some of the rest of their starters {cruz;kennedy;sarloos}in a package for someone. Then hopefully the angels gey stymied in their attempts to land anyone descent. We can beat the Whitesox in a best of seven series anywhere we have proven that. Go A's

by sctr76 on Dec 2, 2005 9:44 AM PST up reply actions

true

"I think if the A's get blown away with the right deal {proven pitcher,bat,big league caliber prospect} zito is gone"
You could say the same though about any player on the A's team

by Alon on Dec 2, 2005 6:22 PM PST up reply actions

I still say zito is gone.

by bigelephant on Dec 2, 2005 9:16 AM PST reply actions

I agree Beane's honest

And he's said he's not going to trade players before. He is being evasive on the Zito issue. Which makes me believe he is not aggressively shopping Zito, but that Zito is on the table.

by As Man on Dec 2, 2005 9:39 AM PST reply actions

Depends on the deal

Beane is a great dealmaker, obviously. If he gets two or three players, one of whom is a bopper, he might go for it. Beane is not afraid to pull the trigger. But I do think Zito will be here for one more season and then he walks away---and the best of luck and our thanks to him.

"Greatness is achieved one day at a time"---Huston Street

by Buck18 on Dec 2, 2005 9:50 AM PST reply actions

The one area where Beane is rarely honest

is regarding the health of his players.

@('.')@

by monkeyball on Dec 2, 2005 9:50 AM PST reply actions

Reading the lines and in between

I agree with just about everything here except for the conclusion. Yes, Beane tends to be honest, and somewhat evasive, which means that reading the Beane oracle involves paying careful attention not only to what he says, but also to how he says it, and what he omits.

It seems to me that the tacit ending to "the great thing is, we don't have to trade Barry," was "... but we're actively shopping him" not "... so we're only going to let him go if we get an offer that knocks our socks off."

And about trying to win now - again, I agree that this is the top priority, but still think trading Zito is probably part of the plan. Going into the off-season, there were a lot of possible directions to go, and frankly, I had no idea which one Beane would pick. But the signing of Loaiza seems the first step in a clear direction.

Loaiza likely represents a 1-2 win upgrade over Saarloos (and, as Grover is quick to point out, even that is not a sure bet), and spending $7 million/year for that while there are questions about the offense just doesn't make much sense. Even if, as some people believe, the budget will increase enough to allow the hole at DH to be filled by a free agent, that still isn't the kind of move that Beane makes - if it looked like the best option available right now, I'd expect him to hold on to the money until a better opportunity presented itself. But if Zito is to be traded for pitching, it makes perfect sense, in the same way that getting Payton was a natural precursor to trading Byrnes.

So judging by what Beane says, what he doesn't say, and what he does, I expect Zito to be gone within a week. He doesn't have to trade Zito ... but he probably will.

"They're like sheep...Baaaaaah" - Bill King

by andeux on Dec 2, 2005 9:56 AM PST reply actions

That's almost eerie

You beat me to it, andeux, making several of the same points I make a couple comments down.

So, ah, very astute analysis, IMO.

by Faust on Dec 2, 2005 10:13 AM PST up reply actions

Wow

Indeed. Great minds, blah blah blah. I think this will be resolved one way or another soon, though - probably by the end of the winter meetings next week, and definitely by the end of the month. If the right deal for Zito just isn't there, Beane can't afford to wait until all the free agents are off the market and other teams have solidified their plans before filling the hole at DH.

"They're like sheep...Baaaaaah" - Bill King

by andeux on Dec 2, 2005 10:36 AM PST up reply actions

Just curious

Does no one think that Saarloos's lack of K's make his other stats alarming??? Couldn't it be that this season was a bit of a fluke for him, and that BB will cash in on it while his value as a great #5 or solid #4-3 is still high?

If it was a fluke, Loaiza represents more of a sure thing... at least on the starting level, juding by his K-BB ratio which is what is important, I think, to Billy

What're your guys' thoughts?

by Alon on Dec 2, 2005 6:26 PM PST up reply actions

I think importance of a

K/IP ratio depends strictly on the type of pitcher. It would alarming--and possibly a sign of injury--if Harden or Haren's K/IP ratio dropped as low as 5.0. Yet for Saarloos to be well below that is just a sign that his success is coming from meeting bats, not missing them.

If Kirk is getting a lot of fly ball outs, it's cause for concern even if they're outs; yet if someone like Jamie Moyer is getting a lot of fly ball outs, it isn't cause for concern--because that's his game.

Nico

by Nico on Dec 2, 2005 7:19 PM PST up reply actions

Yes and no

You're generally right, although it seems there is a lower limit of effectiveness ~4.5 K/9 (of course, this is negotiable - a pitcher who walks a lot of hitters can pump his K/9 number by allowing a lot of baserunners).

Kirk's K/9 is not as concerning when you take into account his superior GB/FB ratio (~3.0) and the fact that his BABIP was not fluke-y low last year. Saarloos is just a dominant groundballer, and you're right in saying that we should start worrying the minute hitters start lofting his pitches.

Copernicus felt the same way about the geocentric crew.

by salb918 on Dec 2, 2005 7:32 PM PST up reply actions

We're not dealing from a position of strength....

...as long as we're shopping for a right handed hitter. Reason: every GM and his brother knows this is our biggest weakness and will deal with us accordingly, despite what we have to offer in return, namely Barry Zito.

Who'd have thought we would go after another starter? Not many, which is why the Loaiza deal
might have been Beane's best move of the off-season(so far, anyway) So instead of upgrading our biggest weakness, we upgrade our biggest strength...very much a moneyball tactic.

Or was it all designed to upgrade Zito's profile(and value) for the Winter Meetings? I guess we'll soon find out.

by Rob @ Athletics Nation on Dec 2, 2005 9:56 AM PST reply actions

The flip side of the strength argument

is that many (most?) teams with a right-handed hitter are in need of good pitching. That is a weakness for them that will even things out.

"Put a Milo on him." -Billy Beane

by kaweahkaweah on Dec 2, 2005 11:55 AM PST up reply actions

Maybe that evens it out

but Beane's history dictates that he'll make a deal for something not as obvious. In fact, I'll go so far to say that if we DO get a RH power hitter, it'll be by way of a three-team deal.

by Rob @ Athletics Nation on Dec 2, 2005 1:17 PM PST up reply actions

Which makes me wonder

if Beane ever reads the stuff we write and gets a big ol' laugh over our attempts to figure out what is going on inside his head.

"Put a Milo on him." -Billy Beane

by kaweahkaweah on Dec 2, 2005 1:26 PM PST up reply actions

I read Billy's words differently.

Nico, you say "putting together everything Beane has said, I think that's the only scenario that fits," but you don't say how exactly you put it together that way. I'd put it together differently: I think Zito is gone before Opening Day, and I think that's the right decision in spite of how much he's meant to this franchise and its fans.

With respect to reading Billy's words, I was particularly struck by the following passage from Urban's article: "Asked point-blank if he planned on trading a starter, he replied, 'We don't have to. That's the good thing.'" Wow. He didn't answer the "point-blank" question at all, but dodged it by answering a related question that wasn't asked. To me this particular dodge indicates that not only is he open to trade offers (which we all know he has to be at this point), but that his intentions are firm enough that he's not comfortable denying that it's his "plan," however tentative or subject to change it may be if he can't find the right package. I think Billy's being honest: he doesn't "have to" trade Zito, but he does plan to.
I'd also just read the situation. Signing Loaiza doesn't make much sense without another shoe dropping: sure he helps the team, but if you're going to spend serious money you generally want to spend it addressing your pressing needs, which for the A's doesn't include starting pitching--unless, of course, a hole is opened up by trade. Then it makes a lot of sense.
Reading "Moneyball" values: Zito's overvalued. I don't mean this as an insult; it's just a function of circumstance and perception. He's a celebrity, he won the Cy Young, he's got the sexy hook and the sexy persona. In addition, his first three years were amazing and established the perception of his value at a deservedly high level; his most recent three years have seen a solid but distinctly reduced level of performance. PECOTA only uses 3 years of data to predict future performance on the grounds that performance going back 4 or more years aren't much use in predicting the next season.

Loaiza, on the other hand - boring, vanilla, relatively undervalued. He actually outperformed Zito the past 3 years, yet he'll make less than Zito in 2006 and he'll make a ton less in 2007-2008. And we all know who has the higher trade value.

I'd still rather have Zito, all else being equal--which of course it isn't. But the evidence suggests that performance difference will not be all that great, and it could well turn out be in Loaiza's favor.

I don't need to cover my rear like you did, because if I'm wrong we won't know it for months, by which time everyone will have forgotten I ever wrote this, and I'll be able to explain without anyone sneering at me that I knew all along the only sensible plan was to go for a ring with Zito.

by Faust on Dec 2, 2005 10:06 AM PST reply actions

sign Zito to a 4 year extension

at 10 million max per year(guaranteed)with a big portion of that as a siginig bonus and have the rotation in tact for the next five years, and the majority of our young nucleas in tact as well. This is our window of opportunity to become dominant and if Lew Wollf and the other partnership in this organization put their money where their mouth is, they will find the money to keep Barry Zito in an A's uniform. Honestly, I'm not excited at the prospect of losing Zito in a trade no matter who we get back and letting him walk is also equally self defeating, in my opinion. Been awhile since I have chimed in here but let's keep the Zito mojo flowing....

Happy holidaze................MRod

by mrod on Dec 2, 2005 10:08 AM PST reply actions

Billy isn't going to put Zito on eBay...

or Craig's List or whatever, but... if another GM approachs him with Great Deal he's not going to say 'No' just cuz I want to keep Zito or AN wants to keep Zito.

It is, after all, a business. Unfortunate, but true.

Thank You Bill...

Go A's

by NomAd on Dec 2, 2005 10:23 AM PST reply actions

5th starters and trading pitchers

At this point we have 5 pitchers who deserve to be everyday starters: Zito, Harden, Haren, Blanton, Loiaza. Furthermore, while Haren and Blanton are probably better pitchers than Loiaza, you don't pay a guy $7mil to make him your 4th or 5th starter, so call him #3 behind Harden and Zito.

And you all know what happens to the #5 guy in the rotation. His turn gets skipped and he can go almost 2 weeks without pitching in a game situation. You can't tell me this is going to be good for the development of either Haren or Blanton. So it seems to me we've just got to trade one of our top 5 guys just to make room for the other young pitchers to develop. And we can't trade Loiaza because there are no "sign and trades" in baseball.

Yeah, it's likely that one of our starters gets injured for some period during the season and we need that 5th starter to step up and have somebody in the bullpen to spot start. But we're not going to carry 5 everyday starters just for this eventuality.

I'm not saying that means we're going to trade Zito-- it could be one of the "young guns" if the deal is right. But it seems to me that somebody has to go.

by LoveDemAs on Dec 2, 2005 10:25 AM PST reply actions

nice argument

All things considered, my money's on Harden getting dealt.

As great as we all know he can be -- everyone else in baseball knows it too, which means he's probably got the most massive trade value of any of our starters, especially with his contract situation. And I think he'll end up throwing fewer innings (albeit of higher quality) than Zito, Loaiza, Haren, or Cupcakes over the next 2 years.

@('.')@

by monkeyball on Dec 2, 2005 10:45 AM PST up reply actions

you know what???

I thought a lot about this the last few days, and came to the same conclusion.

If...

Beane wants a really big bat... and preferably not one who has graduated to a megacontract...

Harden is his best bargaining chip by far.

oaktoon

by oaktoon on Dec 2, 2005 10:46 AM PST up reply actions

I think Monkeyball was joking there

Otherwise he should slice off his fingers for their impudence at making the suggestion

by Faust on Dec 2, 2005 11:01 AM PST up reply actions

<eek!>

That's it -- no more sharp implements for you, Fausty!

I was entirely serious. I think (a) Beane almost has to move a starting pitcher this winter, and (b) it's most likely to be Mr. I-Don't-Do-Yoga.

@('.')@

by monkeyball on Dec 2, 2005 11:04 AM PST up reply actions

OK, I'll grant clemency for your fingers

Although it's more than they deserve. This idea is lunacy, and I don't see where you get it from--Slusser indicates that the young pitchers are almost completely off the table. There would be takers for Zito even though he's relatively expensive and only under contract for one more year. Trading a guy who's cheap, under contract for years to come, and a potential huge star makes no sense. What combination of younger guys, more years, or better quality are you going to get in return? The A's are short of potential superstars. Harden is one, not to mention our best candidate for a front-rank playoff pitcher. Ain't going nowhere.

Untouchable.

If I'm wrong about this, I'll eat my hat (if I had one), turn in my genius credentials (if someone would issue me some), change my AN screen name to Bozo, join a lynch-Beane mob, and welcome you to mock me for having taken such a strong position. But it won't happen.

by Faust on Dec 2, 2005 11:57 AM PST up reply actions

Untouchable

Is a word which, in baseball parlance, is meaningless. Kinda like "Team Chemistry". Team Chemistry is defined by the Win column in the standings.
Untouchable simply doesn't apply to anyone in baseball who doesn't sport a no trade contract. Thus BB's reticence to ever give one.
OK, let's test the untouchable theory (without being blatantly idoitic). How about....Rich Harden for Miguel Cabrera? Still "untouchable"?

The secret of life is honesty and fair dealing. If you can fake that, you've got it made. Groucho Marx

by Steve in Napa on Dec 2, 2005 2:24 PM PST up reply actions

The thing is

Teams don't really do that sort of young stud for young stud trade. Fans and GMs get attached to their superstars, and really aren't prepared to give them up in an even swap. The Marlins aren't going to offer Cabrera.

If you trade a Zito, you're giving up an established performance level for the next year, in exchange for which you get cost savings, extra years of team control, and prospects with as-yet-unfulfilled (but still valuable) potential. There's a fruitful imbalance between the values traded: greater win-now odds for one side, outstanding win-later values for the other.

But if you trade someone who's young and established at a high performance level and cheap and under team control for years to come, well, it's a lot harder to figure out how to come out ahead. He's valuable in just about every possible way, so if you give him up you create deficiencies in so many ways. In theory you could trade him for someone else who has the same values but is, say, a hitter instead of a pitcher (like Cabrera), but the fact is you just don't see those trades. Hard to get two teams to part with an asset they've prized for years without some character issues being in play.

So yes, "untouchable" is a bit hyperbolic, and you're right that no one is untouchable in principle. But I think that as a practical matter, "untouchable" is accurate enough.

by Faust on Dec 2, 2005 2:45 PM PST up reply actions

it would also be ...

... another "Spanish Acquisition" ...

@('.')@

by monkeyball on Dec 2, 2005 11:02 AM PST up reply actions

I certainly don't expect that

But then, no one ever does.

Beat the Angles (they're obtuse!)

by FreeSeatUpgrade on Dec 2, 2005 3:38 PM PST up reply actions

NOBODY expects the Spanish Inquisition!

Our chief weapon is surprise!... Surprise and fear... fear and surprise... Our two weapons are fear and surprise... and ruthless efficiency! Our three weapons are fear, and surprise, and ruthless efficiency... and an almost fanatical devotion to the Pope...

A's v Giants "is kind of like the difference between going to see the Ramones and going to see the Bee Gees. A's fans will go see the Ramones." -BB 07/27/05

by xbhaskarx on Dec 2, 2005 4:03 PM PST up reply actions

Wait up ...

are we supposed to be worried about the Spanish Acquisition or the Spanish Incuisition?

I can't keep up.

Check out some awesome music ...

by devo on Dec 2, 2005 4:16 PM PST up reply actions

Yo no se

A's v Giants "is kind of like the difference between going to see the Ramones and going to see the Bee Gees. A's fans will go see the Ramones." -BB 07/27/05

by xbhaskarx on Dec 2, 2005 4:23 PM PST up reply actions

I don't know!

Mr. Blez just told me to come in here and say there was trouble on the thread! I didn't expect a Spanish Acquisition!

"And Julio Franco is batting right-handed!" -- Wayne Hagin, A's radio play-by-play, mid-80s

by Nick on Dec 2, 2005 4:49 PM PST up reply actions

That's true

But if we trade Harden and Zito walks, what kind of a rotation would we have in '07

"We've come a long way, and I'm not talking about Virginia Slims, either." - Art Howe

by EastCoastA on Dec 2, 2005 11:28 AM PST up reply actions

good question

We do still have Meyer in the pipeline, and I would presume that any deal for Harden would include not only a bat, but a solid AA/AAA pitcher as well.

@('.')@

by monkeyball on Dec 2, 2005 11:33 AM PST up reply actions

I agree

From Monday, even:
http://www.athleticsnation.com/comments/2005/11/28/13123/343/222#222

by oblique on Dec 2, 2005 12:03 PM PST up reply actions

Is it still just a feeling?

And if it's more than a feeling, does that mean he gets traded to Boston?

@('.')@

by monkeyball on Dec 2, 2005 12:08 PM PST up reply actions

No, still just a feeling..

Or maybe I just need to stop eating so much Mexican food..

If Harden went to Boston I'd have to think about becoming a Marlins fan :-(

by oblique on Dec 2, 2005 12:59 PM PST up reply actions

I don't think Harden's going

Unless I'm missing something big (wouldn't be the first time), I don't think Harden is going anywhere. according to Mychael Urban "[Beane] essentially put an 'untouchable' tag on young righties Harden, Blanton and Haren." (http://oakland.athletics.mlb.com/NASApp/mlb/news/article.jsp?ymd=20051128&content_id=1272905& ;vkey=news_oak&fext=.jsp&c_id=oak)
If they know something about his injuries that we don't, then I could see trading Harden, but I agree with Nico that Beane will dodge but not outright lie, so it seems to me that Harden is safe.

by el generico on Dec 2, 2005 12:06 PM PST up reply actions

you could be right

... or that could just be one of Beane's negotiating tactics.

My logic in fitting the Harden-ultimately-=goes theory to the alleged negotiations with the Reds last summer would be: Beane didn't yet have locked up the additional SP (Loaiza) he needed in place in order to deal Harden.

But yeah, I'm totally just speculating. And selectively over-interpreting certain of Beane's statements and ignoring certain others. It's what I do.

@('.')@

by monkeyball on Dec 2, 2005 12:12 PM PST up reply actions

No need to skip #5 ...

teams skip their #5 because they don't want him out there. If you have a good #5, he'll make his start ever turn around the rotation and your team will be better off for it. Your aces may lose a planned start or two - but there's a decent chance in actuality they'll get them back by staying healthy and, regardless, they'll be able to throw a couple more innings in the starts that they do make.

Heck, lets go to a 6 man rotation. Saarloos as #6 - we'll skip him whenever off days dictate to keep everyone else on the proper schedule. With everyone except Harden being a good but not great 3.50-4.00 range pitcher and Saarloos not being far behind we wouldn't lose anything with replacing a Zito or Loaiza start with an extra Blanton start and the couple of starts Harden would lose would probably be worth it to help keep him healthy ...

If we don't trade someone that seems like a heck of an idea to me.

Check out some awesome music ...

by devo on Dec 2, 2005 11:04 AM PST up reply actions

Agree

I think the A's would be happy with Cruz and Kennedy battling for the 5th spot going into the spring. This signing signals that they are looking to trade Zito for a bat. Maybe they are not forced to but that is what they would like to do.

ogallalabob

by ogallalabob on Dec 2, 2005 3:26 PM PST up reply actions

cruz and kennedy

both are behind saarloos.

A's v Giants "is kind of like the difference between going to see the Ramones and going to see the Bee Gees. A's fans will go see the Ramones." -BB 07/27/05

by xbhaskarx on Dec 2, 2005 3:29 PM PST up reply actions

Couldn't it be ...

that Beane himself doesn't know exactly how it will play out? That's what I think is going on. Loaiza is great insurance in case Beane gets a deal that knocks his socks off with a hitter for Zito. But he can't pull the trigger on that deal unless he has a legit middle of the rotation starting pitcher to replace what is lost in Zito. If he doesn't get that great offer, he holds on to Zito and has a great rotation. In that case, he still has enough prospects and mediocre starting pitching to deal for a decent bat that will still be an upgrade. I mean, someone like Austin Kearns, Chris Shelton or even Ryan Klesko might be obtainable with spare parts like Kennedy, Cruz, Ginter, Herrera, and provide an upgrade in the lineup. But no one on that list of hitters would justify moving Zito. For Zito, Beane can demand a big bopper, and other GM's won't try to wait Beane out until his price for Zito falls because they'll know he's not bluffing.

by iceplant on Dec 2, 2005 10:29 AM PST reply actions

My guess

is that BB had a folder on his computer which has all NL teams in a list--with a Zito column, a Harden column, a Blanton column...you get the idea. In each cell he's got a list of players who he considers would "blow him away" in a possible trade. Example: Harden, St. Louis: Pujols; Zito, Atlanta, Francouer and LaRoche; etc. etc.
The list is long, the possibilities endless. He's probably got a hundred deals up his sleeve, and he may not do any...

The secret of life is honesty and fair dealing. If you can fake that, you've got it made. Groucho Marx

by Steve in Napa on Dec 2, 2005 2:30 PM PST up reply actions

Free agent dealings priced us out

The word out of Kansas city is that Paul Byrd will get a bigger contract than Loaiza got.

http://www.kansascity.com/mld/kansascity/sports/baseball/mlb/kansas_city_royals/13297419.htm

I think that makes our Loaiza signing look relatively good. These signing are also driving the price of Zito up for next year. There is no way that he'll take a $10 mil a year deal from us, when he'll be able to get much more than that on teh FA market or in a trade. Gordon at $6 mil a year, Farnsworth with more than that, and Paul Byrd at more than $7 mil per (good pitcher, but serious health risk). Cheers to Billy for recognizing which way the market was going to go and signing Loaiza early before the prices go through the roof. When Millwood is demanding $11 mil per and Burnett is demanding $13-$14 per, Zito will become very valuble.

by RunRickeyRun on Dec 2, 2005 10:58 AM PST reply actions

Beane didn't just ...

... "recognizing which way the market was going to go," he helped give it a shove -- much like Sabean did last year with Omar and the silly SS market (which is why it doesn't surprise me at all that Sabean was in the running for Loaiza). I think Beane may have looked closely at what Sabes did with the SS market last year.

@('.')@

by monkeyball on Dec 2, 2005 11:07 AM PST up reply actions

The difference between Beane

and Sabean is that Beane shoved the market in order to take advantage of a surplus that he controls. It's not like Sabes made a Deivi-riffic trade after signing Dreamboat Vizquel.

Copernicus felt the same way about the geocentric crew.

by salb918 on Dec 2, 2005 11:57 AM PST up reply actions

well, yes!

I should have been more clear: Beane looked closely at what Sabean did w/Omar, and thought to himself, "Why didn't Sabes finish the trick? There's a real opportunity there. I can do better than that!

@('.')@

by monkeyball on Dec 2, 2005 12:05 PM PST up reply actions

Re: I can do better than that!

as if outperforming sabean is some great feat...

A's v Giants "is kind of like the difference between going to see the Ramones and going to see the Bee Gees. A's fans will go see the Ramones." -BB 07/27/05

by xbhaskarx on Dec 2, 2005 12:07 PM PST up reply actions

If Beane and Sabean mated

their offspring would be named Sabeane.

"Put a Milo on him." -Billy Beane

by kaweahkaweah on Dec 2, 2005 12:10 PM PST up reply actions

WOW

"...the price now seems certain to top $21.375 million over three years.
That is what Oakland shelled out earlier this week to sign right-hander Esteban Loaiza."

a big reason why my initial reaction to the loaiza deal was so negative was because i thought byrd would sign for significantly less than 21 million.

beane wins again. it almost seems unfair...

A's v Giants "is kind of like the difference between going to see the Ramones and going to see the Bee Gees. A's fans will go see the Ramones." -BB 07/27/05

by xbhaskarx on Dec 2, 2005 11:25 AM PST up reply actions

great post, wrong conclusion

you're right, beane is surprisingly honest if one pays careful attention to what he says. except, as monkeyball points out, when it comes to injured players.

but i don't agree with the conclusion. no way zito is allowed to walk. or at least that's the least likely option in terms of probability.

traded by december
signed to a hometown discount deal
traded by the deadline
zito leaves at the end of the season

i would put made up percentages next to each option but that would just be silly. but i think each one is far less likely than the previous option and zito will almost certainly be gone very soon.

as i prepare to post this, i finish reading the comments and notice that andeux and faust wrote the exact same thing. also, oaktoon agrees with nico that zito will stay, so that makes it even more likely that zito will be traded.

as usual, we'll see who is right and who is wrong, and who the best beane kremlinologists on AN really are....

although even if andeux, faust and i turn out to be wrong, i think it's still the best interpretation of the quotes from beane. i would dissect the quotes but they have both done a better job than i ever could.

A's v Giants "is kind of like the difference between going to see the Ramones and going to see the Bee Gees. A's fans will go see the Ramones." -BB 07/27/05

by xbhaskarx on Dec 2, 2005 11:08 AM PST reply actions

likelihoods

(... are children who grow up in poverty and without strong, positive familial or social role models, at least if you believe the late Dan Moynihan ...)

I actually think that your #1 may be the least likely outcome. Given Beane's recent pitching acquisition and his demonstrated and stated need for another bat, Beane has little leverage right now. Yes, the pitching market is pretty inflationary right now, but I think other likely trading partners will feel more under the gun to make a play for Zito near the '06 trading deadline. And given the outcome of the Hudson deal, Beane should really want to maximize the heck out of any Zito deal. In short, yes, I think that 3 months of Zito under the pressure of a pennant race will bring greater value than 6 months of Zito to one of the 25 teams that see themselves as potential contenders 5 months prior to the start of the season.

Also, the preemptive Loaiza signing indicates to me that Beane is prepared for the contingency of essentially swapping draft picks.

@('.')@

by monkeyball on Dec 2, 2005 11:22 AM PST up reply actions

monkeyball

you make some good arguments in this post and in the reasoning behind a possible harden trade.

but, as you said: "Beane almost has to move a starting pitcher this winter"

harden can't be traded unless there is another sure thing pitching prospect who will be ready by 2007 when zito leaves, and meyer's recent injuries and ineffectiveness make that unlikely.

i just think the market for pitching is going to get even crazier in the next few weeks. just a day or two ago nobody doubted whether 10-13 million over two years would be enough to get paul byrd. now he will probably get more than loaiza even though he is older and has recently had arm injuries.

a lot of teams are still looking for pitching and even if many have nobody the a's would want, there could be a three way deal once burnett, millwood, etc. have all signed.

A's v Giants "is kind of like the difference between going to see the Ramones and going to see the Bee Gees. A's fans will go see the Ramones." -BB 07/27/05

by xbhaskarx on Dec 2, 2005 11:45 AM PST up reply actions

yes, but ...

... we're still only talking about Zito available for 1 year via trade. Yes, the FA market is exploding, but many GMs are really starting to buy into (in both sense of the term) the value of fixed costs.

And given the time pressures under which any deal would likely be done this month, I don't think it's likely that any team would be able to neg. a finalized extension w/Z prior to a trade being consummated.

I agree that we can't entirely hang our hopes on Meyer for a slot in the '07 rotation -- which is why I think any Harden deal would probably include a bat plus a SP.

And the key word in Beane's putative situation is "almost" -- my suspicion is that Beane would be at peace with riding Z's contract out 'til the end of the season (with the best #1-5 rotation in the bigs) and "swapping" the Loaiza pick for the Zito pick. And if he's ready to do that, then I would presume he's ready to sit on Zito through the winter and tease trade talks out to the trade deadline.

Of course, this is all speculation on my part. I'm ready to be 100% wrong on all of this nonsense.

@('.')@

by monkeyball on Dec 2, 2005 12:03 PM PST up reply actions

we shall see!

given that we both think a starting pitcher will be traded, we'll probably know the answer soon enough.

i think beane's actual comments support the zito trade theory being pushed by andeux, faust, and i over the no zito trade theory. and of course that's the whole point of this diary: reading between the lines, as beane tends to be cryptic but honest.

so, we'll revisit this issue, just for bragging rights and whatnot.
let people take a firm position one way or the other in this diary if they want to be able to say "i told you so" later.

the losers (meaning you, nico, and oaktoon) will be placed in a naked human pyramid and have their genitals mocked by lynndie england...

A's v Giants "is kind of like the difference between going to see the Ramones and going to see the Bee Gees. A's fans will go see the Ramones." -BB 07/27/05

by xbhaskarx on Dec 2, 2005 12:45 PM PST up reply actions

it's a bet ...

... so long as you'll agree, if you lose, to be extraordinarily rendered to Halos Heaven (and/or whatever site Huston123 is frequenting).

@('.')@

by monkeyball on Dec 2, 2005 1:04 PM PST up reply actions

Cool

But I notice you leave Monkeyball out of your potential naked human pyramid. But maybe that's because you figure Monkeyball would actually enjoy such a pyramid?

Disclaimer: I actually oppose coerced participation in naked human pyramids.

by Faust on Dec 2, 2005 1:09 PM PST up reply actions

i included monkeyball

"you, nico, and oaktoon"

A's v Giants "is kind of like the difference between going to see the Ramones and going to see the Bee Gees. A's fans will go see the Ramones." -BB 07/27/05

by xbhaskarx on Dec 2, 2005 1:31 PM PST up reply actions

naked HUMAN pyramid

Leaves me out!

I will form my own naked simian pyramid.

@('.')@
%
@('.')@ @('.')@
% %
@('.')@ @('.')@ @('.')@
% % %

@('.')@

by monkeyball on Dec 2, 2005 1:53 PM PST up reply actions

Sorry

I haven't mastered pronouns yet.

by Faust on Dec 2, 2005 2:12 PM PST up reply actions

in the event of said

naked human pyramid ....

Isn't everyone involved, in fact, a loser?

Check out some awesome music ...

by devo on Dec 2, 2005 1:10 PM PST up reply actions

Most especially

Lynndie England!

by oblique on Dec 2, 2005 2:06 PM PST up reply actions

well, i believe she did get

a little baby england out of the whole thing...

A's v Giants "is kind of like the difference between going to see the Ramones and going to see the Bee Gees. A's fans will go see the Ramones." -BB 07/27/05

by xbhaskarx on Dec 2, 2005 2:14 PM PST up reply actions

She gave birth

to a Wales?

by oblique on Dec 2, 2005 2:42 PM PST up reply actions

also

moynihan was one of the great senators of the 20th century...

A's v Giants "is kind of like the difference between going to see the Ramones and going to see the Bee Gees. A's fans will go see the Ramones." -BB 07/27/05

by xbhaskarx on Dec 2, 2005 11:53 AM PST up reply actions

Buy low--Sell high

Zito is at his most valuable point right now. He is consistant, healthy and has the other pluses a smart GM wants. Plus the market for his position is very tight.

BB is very consistant. He buys assets that are undervalued and sell assets that are highly valued relative to the market. He has to be thrilled right now because this organization is full of valuable assets. And all (except Zito)will probably be getting more valuable. That is why the odds are Zito will be moved.

But markets change. And they can change fast. That is why this off season stuff is so much fun.

Its like BB is playing poker. Right now his hand is full of face cards and Aces. I cannot wait to see how he plays it.

Thomas Walker

by Thomas Walker on Dec 2, 2005 1:12 PM PST reply actions

Beane and the Loaiza Signing

Beane says he hasn't talked w/ Zito about his upcoming contract situation.

Why wouldn't he discuss this before signing Loaiza?
Wouldn't you want to get a better idea of what your star pitcher is thinking?

Personally, I think Zito would be brutally honest w/ BB in discussing his future.

** Blez: I think it would be interesting to ask Mychael Urban about Billy Beane and his pre-trade discussions he had w/ Hudson and Mulder...if he had any at all. Does BB sit down w/ the players/agents to discuss hometown discounts, etc? Or, does BB assume that they can't sign players, and directly puts them on the trading block w/o that very important conversation?

Let's Go Oak-Land!

by Colorado Fan on Dec 2, 2005 2:33 PM PST reply actions

I just wanted to say...

The idea of trading away Rich Harden for anybody short of Albert Pujols is completely ridiculous.

In my view he has already become one of the top 3 pitchers in the american league.

He's got the best/most consistent fastball of any SP in the game.

He throws an awesome splitter/knuckle/change/whatever the hell it is pitch that causes even the most seasoned hitters to look foolish.

He's freaking 23 years old, and is being paid next to nothing.

There are only 2 or three pitchers in baseball I'd rather have for the next 4-5 years.

by Little Rickey on Dec 2, 2005 4:18 PM PST reply actions

if..if.. if

He stays healthy.

But if Beane has some suspicion (or more) that he can't/won't, then dealing him now before his trade value plummets from another "Prior/Wood" like season would be a prudent manuever.

oaktoon

by oaktoon on Dec 2, 2005 4:42 PM PST up reply actions

One season of questionable health

brought on by - from many accounts - a bad training regimen is hardly enough to call into question a player's long-term health outlook.

In Oakland's defense, not a single one of their pitching prospects over the last decade has had a major arm or shoulder injuries. Those are the real killers.

Copernicus felt the same way about the geocentric crew.

by salb918 on Dec 2, 2005 5:08 PM PST up reply actions

the pitchers will be fine

as long as zito eats enough food and harden stays away from alarm clocks.

A's v Giants "is kind of like the difference between going to see the Ramones and going to see the Bee Gees. A's fans will go see the Ramones." -BB 07/27/05

by xbhaskarx on Dec 2, 2005 5:22 PM PST up reply actions

Excuse me

But Ben Fritz and Shane Komine had TJ surgery in 2004.

I don't hate, I just respond aggressively to stupidity

by grover on Dec 2, 2005 6:02 PM PST up reply actions

You're right

What I ought to have said was that none of their young major league pitcher's have had major shoulder or arm problems. Correct me if I'm mistaken.

Copernicus felt the same way about the geocentric crew.

by salb918 on Dec 2, 2005 7:15 PM PST up reply actions

Other than Dotel

(and he's not exactly young) I can't think of an A's pitcher who's gone down with an arm or shoulder injury since 1999.

I don't hate, I just respond aggressively to stupidity

by grover on Dec 2, 2005 7:19 PM PST up reply actions

At least not the shoulder

he pitches with, anyway...

Nico

by Nico on Dec 2, 2005 7:21 PM PST up reply actions

Notice

I didn't count oblique injuries either.

I don't hate, I just respond aggressively to stupidity

by grover on Dec 2, 2005 7:24 PM PST up reply actions

Not a major arm injury

Not a major injury period.

Copernicus felt the same way about the geocentric crew.

by salb918 on Dec 2, 2005 7:33 PM PST up reply actions

I wouldn't go that far

Any injury that causes a player to miss a significant amount of time is major in my book. And I think it fair to say that Hudson's recurring oblique injury is a major problem.

I don't hate, I just respond aggressively to stupidity

by grover on Dec 2, 2005 7:53 PM PST up reply actions

Flexibility

The Loaiza deal is about flexibility in my opinion. It just opens the number of potential deals Beane can consider. He doesn't HAVE to get a front of the rotation pitcher in return. He can focus on other areas now. And if no one blows him away, he can always go with these five in '06 and get a bat another way.

by peanut gallery on Dec 2, 2005 4:24 PM PST reply actions

I agree, it is about flexibility...

and I agree with a previous thread that BB doesn't yet know which direction he will be heading (and taking all of us along for the ride to boot !!!!!!), but he wants to be prepared for all eventualities.

Billy may keep Loaiza for one year and take advantage of getting some additional experience at the Starting Pitcher position for 2006, and then in 2007 has the option to trade Loaiza if the A's sign Z to an extention - and (not so incidently) by the end of 2006 Blanton will have another year under his belt and/or he will know more about Hardin's health, etc. Or.... Billy can keep Loaiza (for 1 or 2 additional years) if Z walks after 2006:... Or, as many presume, he can trade Z this winter if BB gets an offer he can not refuse. It is all about options, and more importantly, options at the correct price and at the correct timing, i.e. the Loaiza signing is vintage Billy Beane.....let's all sit back enjoy and watch it develop.

by robertmelvin on Dec 2, 2005 6:39 PM PST up reply actions

Zito, like Chavez, is ...

... at the heart of the team's spirit. You can trade for arms or bats but it's damn hard to trade for spirit. And that's WHY Zito will be an Oakland A next year. What follows only the good Lord and Mr. Beane knows. Amen.

Darn it, Bill, you just made Toledo even holier.

by Edwinwinwin on Dec 2, 2005 6:04 PM PST reply actions

Let that ring come

I think the A's have to thrive for that world series, this is the team to do it, Zito has to be on top of his game, that way I think most of us will feel satisfied that Zito pitched his heart out in is tenure, there I said it.

The tragedy of life is not that it ends so soon, but that we wait so long to begin it.-W. M. Lewis

by doublehustle22 on Dec 2, 2005 6:37 PM PST reply actions

Eh

I'd be more satisfied with 3 or 4 potential superstars this year and next ;-)

Not that that's what we can get, but you get my point

by Alon on Dec 2, 2005 9:44 PM PST up reply actions

no need to deal zito

The facts are that there are plenty of good right handed bats that can bat in the middle of the order who are on the trading block and it would take simply minor leaguers to get them or something involving Joe Kennedy. People like Shea Hillendbrand with his .290 average and 80+ RBI; Casey Black who hit 28 homers two years ago and 23 homers last year in a down year; or even Craig Monroe who hit 20 homers and will come cheap at 400,000.

by dpetri2000 on Dec 2, 2005 10:06 PM PST reply actions