A's Vs. Angels according to ZIPs (and ME!!)

by niallmack on Dec 15, 2005 1:07 PM PST

Now that the A's offseason plans seem to be coming together I wanted to take a look at their chances of beating the team they finished second to in their division the last two years.

According to the Zips projections made available by Dan Szymborski at www.baseballthinkfactory.org we have the advantage at many offensive positions most notably at SS, and 3B. The Angels RF covered for now and haven't made any major offseason moves thus far but here are the projections for these three spots.

Name Avg OBP SLG
Crosby .270 .353 .448
Cabrera .264 .317 .379
AVG AL SS .276 .331 .412

Chavez .278 .361 .493
McPherson .249 .316 .493
AVG AL 3B .266 .329 .428

Bradley .291 .378 .462
Vlad .327 .400 .571
AVG AL RF .270 .332 .451

As it stands right now the Angels will put Mathis or a younger Molina in at catcher who both project to have a disappointing year and by disappointing I mean terrible. They can't get Bengie back and both catchers have a projected OBP of .281 while Kendall's is .364.

The Angels also have Hector Corrasco slated to be their number 5 starter even though he has started 6 games in his career and didn't play in the MLB in 2004...

Looks like they gotta trade some of that "amazing" farm system or wait until after next year to see the playoffs.

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Comments

Watch out for Wood

He could be very special (40+ HRS) right from the get-go. and the get-go might be this year.

oaktoon

by oaktoon on Dec 15, 2005 1:27 PM PST reply actions

Thing is Angels haven't developed prospects

well. MacPherson and Kotchman both appear to be flops. Doesn't seem like Scioscia trusts them enough to play frequently and develop.

"Macha, Howe...whatever." --salb918

by BruceBochte on Dec 15, 2005 1:34 PM PST up reply actions

Kotchman a bust?

What game you been watching?

There are only two races in Baseball, Right Handers and Left Handers.

by Zonis on Dec 15, 2005 4:59 PM PST up reply actions

If you were their GM

Would you trade Cabrera back to the Red Sox where he had success and throw the starting SS job to Wood? He had 128 strikeouts in 130 games of single A. He's a monstrous talent but probably needs another year.

by niallmack on Dec 15, 2005 1:38 PM PST up reply actions

um

If Brandon Wood can go Pujols (40 homers in rookie year after skipping 2 levels at extremely young age), i'll give you a million dollars. Alas, Brandon Wood will not hit 40 homers in the bigs next year, and i'd put my life on that.

RIP Bill King "By the Beard of Zeus!" "I don't know if you heard me counting. I did over a thousand"

by ohad on Dec 15, 2005 1:59 PM PST up reply actions

McPherson

Do you think McStrikeout will improve a lot next year? The guy is 2 days older than me (25) and hit.

avg .244 obp .295 slg .449 last year with 64 strikeouts in 205 at-bats. He hit for power in the minors but struggled to make contact. A little bit like Swisher with more power and less walks.

by niallmack on Dec 15, 2005 2:05 PM PST reply actions

Very interesting to see what Stoneman does

Finley and Erstad can't hit their salaries, and probably shouldn't be playing at all above the youth, but they will of course.

I agree that their Catcher options look bad right now.

Those look like the right numbers for McPherson, HRs and Ks galore. Kotchman is nowhere near a bust though, he'll be the Halos' second best hitter this year.

Wood isn't ready yet, Kendrick could be ready though Adam Kennedy is fine at 2B.

I agree though, that they are going to have to deal from their farm system or go into the season a very flawed team.

by jakarta on Dec 15, 2005 2:05 PM PST reply actions

Kotchman...

I wouldn't call him a flop just yet. Far from it in fact. I'm of the belief that if Scioscia had played Kotchman all year at first base they would have taken the west by a wider margin. It certainly was an incredibly dumb decision to bench Kotchman for the playoffs. .278/.352/.484 from a 22 year old in 05 is good stuff. Given the fact the he k'd only 18 times and he consistently hit .350 in the minors, I'd expect his average to climb significantly. He's a gold glove caliber defender, and finally added power this year. In my humble opinio, the guy is terribly underrated. Hopefully some smart gm will pluck him off their roster, because I see him as a perrenial all star candidate...

by Little Rickey on Dec 15, 2005 2:39 PM PST reply actions

There was thought

they would trade Kotchman for Mike Sweeney - I was really hoping that would go through.

Copernicus felt the same way about the geocentric crew.

by salb918 on Dec 15, 2005 2:46 PM PST up reply actions

Yup, I felt the same way...

I don't understand why people are so down on Kotchman. What is it based on??? The guy has done nothing but hit and play awesome defense. It's a crime that Darin Erstad has taken away at-bats from him. I'd be willing to bet Kotchman outhits Sweeney this year for 1/15th the salary. What an idiotic trade idea. Sometimes I wonder how the Angels got to where they are...

by Little Rickey on Dec 15, 2005 2:49 PM PST up reply actions

But Erstad

Does things stats can't measure. Like going back on flyballs better than any first baseman in, well, history.

by niallmack on Dec 15, 2005 3:32 PM PST up reply actions

Hehehe...

I guess people just can't resist that Erstad game face. I also saw his name linked with Javy Lopez. I know Lopez is fading and overpaid but wow... it's amazing there's a market out there for "Ersty"

by Little Rickey on Dec 15, 2005 3:54 PM PST up reply actions

So would you rather have

a firstbaseman who can go back on a pop up once a game or a firstbaseman who can hit the ball out of the infield.

Copernicus felt the same way about the geocentric crew.

by salb918 on Dec 15, 2005 4:12 PM PST up reply actions

Wood scares me as well...

But it will be interesting to see how his BA holds up as he moves out of the Cal league. Let's face it, his plate discipline ain't so hot. Nonetheless, he's probly a top 5 position prospect, right behind guys like Yound and Upton. Scary thought for the A's...

by Little Rickey on Dec 15, 2005 2:41 PM PST reply actions