Deal and FA Pick Up

Toronto has a logjam in the infield (Hinske at 1B, Hudson at 2B, Adams at SS, Koskie at 3B, Hill trying to fit in somehwere).  Therefore, JP Ricci might be willing to deal Hillenbrand for a couple of minor leaguers.  Plus, Hillenbrand becomes a 6-year player after 2006... so he's only restricted for one more season.  

This is a bonus to the Hillenbrand idea, over ideas like Konerko (way to expensive) and Dunn (Reds demanding a major-league starter).  We could probably get him for one AAA player or a couple of AA prospects.  

He always says he likes playing in front of family/friends (as you point out, he's a local guy).  Although, the A's have had his number, he wouldn't have to pitch against us if he played for us (but I'd be a little afraid he may have been trained to twitch when taking the Oak. mound given his struggles here).

I just don't think he'd take a reduced role AND a severe pay cut.

I have little opinion on Hillenbrand (if pressed for a position, I'd say no to getting him).

C  Kendall, Melhuse (2)
1B Johnson (1)
2B Ellis, Scutaro (2)
3B Chavez, Ginter (2)
SS Crosby (1)
LF Payton, Kielty (2)
CF Kotsay (1)
RF Swisher, Thomas (2)
DH _____

SP Harden, Zito, Haren, Blanton, Saarloos (5)
RP Street, Duke, Calero, Kennedy, Cruz, ____ (5)

Our total payroll committed to those 23 players is somwhere between $51M and $54M.  

We can get Hillenbrand for around $4.5M - $5.0M for 2006 (he's in his last arbitration year, and he made $3.87M last year, meaning we'd only be committed to him for one year).  

We could sign Guardado to a two-year deal at around $5.0M per year (or we could offer him three years of security at a lower per-year value -- 3-yrs, $12M).  I don't see why Guardado wouldn't accept a reduced roll.  The guy's not in line to break any career saves records.  He's 35 years old, and he's still effective, but he might be looking to pull a Terry Steinbach (i.e., spend the last few years of his career close to home).  And, the reason that people generally shy away from "reduced rolls" is the corresponding reduced paycheck.  Here, we could offer Guardado right around his market value (~$5M per year).  As long as he's not making any less money, what does he care about what roll he's in?  

In all, adding Hillenbrand and Guardado puts us right around $62.0M - $64.0M total payroll.  In other words, I don't think you're right that if Guardado "thinks he can get more than his player option, the A's can't hit him."  We can get him.  

Are these the best players we could possibly get?  No.  Would they help our team?  Yes.  

Look, I'm willing to admit that Hillenbrand is a basically a slightly-better-than-average right-handed hitter.  But, he is extremely consistent.  Over the last five years, his AVG has been between .290 and .310 four times (the only year he was outside of that range was an injury year).  Over that same span, his OPS has been between .778 and .812 all five years.  Last year he had a better-than-.800 OPS with runners on and a .800 OPS with RISP.  His batting average doesn't fluctuate throughout the season.  In other words, he would add something to our lineup that we simply do not have:  A guy who we could put in our 3-6 hole in the lineup who isn't prone to ridiculous streaks like Chavez.  Hillenbrand's not going to hit 30 bombs, I know.  He's also not going to go two months hitting .200 (like some of the clowns we root for right now).  I think people underestimate the value of consistency.  Guys like Dunn and Chavez might put up better year-end stats than Hillenbrand, but those guys also tend to disappear for a month at a time, leaving their teams without their "big bat" for long stretches.  

As for Guardado, I'd argue he's the second-best lefty on the market.  Let the big boys battle over BJ Ryan, they can have him.  I say we make a quick move to grab Guardado... having to face Duke, Guardado and Street in the 8th and 9th innings would be nasty.  

Only issue with Sanders is his injury history.  He's 38 years old next year, and he hasn't played over 140 games in any of the last five years (he only played 93 in 2005).  So, I'd be a little more worried Sanders missing time than I would with Hillenbrand, but I like the idea.  

Sanders also always seems to sign obscenely low-$$$ contracts for the numbers he puts up.  The fact that a guy like Darren Driefort has made $55M over the last five years, and Reggie Sanders has made just over $10M, tells me that there is something very wrong in the world.  

If we don't sign or offer arbitration to...
... Melhuse, we'll find another cheap backup catcher.  
... Kielty, we'll bring up a minor-leaguer who has a good spring.  
... Cruz, we'll bring up a minor-leaguer (although I'd be surprised if we let Cruz go -- he only made $0.6M this year and he's not due a big increase since he was in AAA for most of the year).  
... Kennedy, we'll bring up Rheinecker.  

As for Swisher, Thomas, Johnson, Street and Blanton, they're "under contract" for all intents and purposes.  

1B:  Hinske is signed through 2007.  
2B:  Hudson is just entering his first year of arbitration (meaning he's there through 2008).  
3B:  Koskie is signed through 2007.
SS:  Adams is just entering his 2nd-year (meaning he's there through 2010).  
PLUS:  He's got Aaron Hill, who's ready to step into the lineup right now.  

He can't deal Hinske or Koskie.  So he's basically stuck with Hillenbrand as a DH.  That might be fine with him, but I can't picture JP saying "no thanks" if we offered him a good enough package, and I certainly can't see a "moneyball" GM signing a DH to a multi-year, $6M+ per year deal.  Does he really want to sign Hillenbrand to a long-term deal worth that much when he already has a 1B and a 3B signed through 2007?  I'm not sure.  

Maybe he was just saying he planned to sign him long-term in order to make him look untouchable, i.e., to see if people would offer a little more for him.  People say all kinds of crazy shit when they are bargaining.  

That said, I still think he brings something to this team that we don't have... an old-fashion hitter.  A guy who hits singles and doubles, moves people around the bases and puts pressure on the pitcher.  I've read "Moneyball," I've seen the way Beane's schemes work, and I think there is value in getting on base.  I also think that depending so heavily on walks for run production is ill-advised.  

First of all, come playoff time, you face better pitchers.  Better pitchers equals better K:BB ratio, fewer mistakes.  We depend on mistakes for runs, which is one reason that fail in the playoffs.  

Second of all, there is something mentally uplifting about getting a hit off a pitcher as opposed to getting on via walk.  You get a hit, you beat that pitcher.  You walk, that pitcher beat himself.  I want a guy on our team who swings the freaking bat...  Payton provided some of that this year, although by the end of the season he was starting to look a little too much like Juan Samuel for my liking (in other words, he was swinging at EVERYTHING).  

But, if he can't move him, we should be prepared to make a move.  

He's 35 or 36 years old already, so it's not like he's going to be asking for a 4- or 5-year deal...  Two or three years at $4-6M per year should get him.  I'm willing to make that kind of commitment to a guy who doesn't depend on a 97-mph fastball to be effective (especially since a lot of our young players' salaries don't get into the escalation stage until 2007 or 2008).  

As for Hillenbrand, that might be a tougher get.  Beane might have to give up a high-level prospect to get him if JP Ricc is a hard-ass.  Of course, Beane could walk away from the table, leaving JP Ricc with six infielders to fill five spots (1B, 2B, SS, 3B, DH), in which case JP might soften his stance.  

With Hillenbrand, it all depends what JP Ricc is asking for...  If it's not going to kill us long-term, I say we get him.  He's a better option than Criag Wilson in my mind because he's consistent.  He's more attainable than Dunn, Konerko or Preston Wilson (Wilson's going to ask for a contract out of our price range, whereas Hillenbrand is still under arbitration for one more year).  I haven't seen a lot of other options out there.  Reggie Sanders might be a possibility, but he's more of a threat to spend time on the DL than Hillenbrand.  The rest of the free-agent pool is drier than the Mojave Desert.  

Ellis
Kotsay
Crosby
Chavez
Hillenbrand
Johnson
Payton
Swisher
Kendall