Who are these guys, really

by Steve in Napa on Oct 21, 2005 11:32 AM PDT

Bill James introduced similarity scores for players nearly 15 years ago in his book The Politics of Glory (p. 86-106). To compare one player to another, start at 1000 points and then you subtract points based on the statistical differences of each player.
Batters

* One point for each difference of 20 games played.
* One point for each difference of 75 at bats.
* One point for each difference of 10 runs scored.
* One point for each difference of 15 hits.
* One point for each difference of 5 doubles.
* One point for each difference of 4 triples.
* One point for each difference of 2 home runs.
* One point for each difference of 10 RBI.
* One point for each difference of 25 walks.
* One point for each difference of 150 strikeouts.
* One point for each difference of 20 stolen bases.
* One point for each difference of .001 in batting average.
* One point for each difference of .002 in slugging percentage.

Let's take a look at Nick Swisher:
His 162 game average year (as compliled in Baseball Reference) is 560 AB 25 HR 88 RBI .238 BA and .325 OBP. Using Bill James methodology the most similar players are Adam Piatt 398, 12, 50, .248, .323; Jayson Werth 503, 17, 74, .245, .333; and Jack Voight 324, 11, 46, .235, .324.
And Dan Johnson: 557, 22, 86, .275, .355 correlates with George Scott 592, 22, 84, .268, .333; almost exactly with Bobby Murcer 571, 21, 89, .277, .357; Dusty Baker 565, 19, 80, .278, .347; and Wally Joyner 568, 16, 88, .289, .362.
When looking at possible changes for '06 I believe that upgrading RF, 1B and DH must be Billy Beane's priorities. While both Johnson and Swisher (especially Swisher) apparently have upside, the comparisons above don't speak to optimism.
Joyner and Scott were both leather wizards, and their teams made up for their lack of great power at other positions.
Voight and Werth are part timers, and, unfortunately, Swisher looks like he may be as well.

Poll

If you were Billy Beane where would you upgrade for '06

First Base

1 votes

Right Field

4 votes

DH

60 votes

Other

3 votes

68 votes | Poll has closed

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Comments

I think you are jumping the gun on Nick

He's had one full year in the majors. Actually, it wasn't full because he missed a lot of time due to injuries. Nevertheless, he had a decent first year and will probably improve.

I sipped the Kool-Aid, and it tastes gooooooooood!!!

by kaweahkaweah on Oct 21, 2005 11:43 AM PDT reply actions

Amen!!

Not only was he out due to injury during May, which we all saw the stats on not having him in the line-up, but his grandma (who he looked at like a mother) also died half way through the season. That would take a toll on anyone! What I liked was that he was constantly working to improve. And we all know this offseason, that is all he is going to do. So lets not rush to judgement too quickly!

"We play our best ball when we're goofing around and having a good time" ~Bobby Crosby

by BobbyCrosbysGirl on Oct 21, 2005 11:52 AM PDT up reply actions

Agreed

20 dongs for any rookie is ok in my book. You can only fairly compare Swisher to other players' rookie seasons:

Swisher - 131 G, 462 AB, 109 H, 21 HR, 74 RBI, .236 AVG
Chavez - 115 G, 356 AB, 88 H, 13 HR, 50 RBI, .247 AVG
Vlad - 90 G, 325 AB, 98 H, 11 HR, 40 RBI, .302 AVG
Manny - 91 G, 290 AB, 78 H, 17 HR, 60 RBI, .269 AVG

That's all I care to look up right now. I think Swisher's fine.

Hard work never hurt anyone, but I'm not taking any chances.

by Alameda Greg on Oct 21, 2005 1:05 PM PDT up reply actions

<bows to Alameda Greg>

THANK YOU!! I am so glad you posted that! I hate it when I only have emotions, observations and intuition to back up my points (the nature of a woman)! And you put it out there in Black and White! Thanks!

"We play our best ball when we're goofing around and having a good time" ~Bobby Crosby

by BobbyCrosbysGirl on Oct 21, 2005 1:28 PM PDT up reply actions

His rookie year looked a lot like Crosby's, and

if he makes the same progress Bobby did, from first year to second year he will be fine, He could be .280/20hr/70rbi, and I will be happy.

by theblackpearl on Oct 21, 2005 11:56 AM PDT reply actions

Age and experience

The way you're using similarity scores, you're taking the player's numbers from his rookie year, and comparing them to other players' career stats - naturally the result is a list of players who either had very short careers or never improved. But if you want to project future performance, you need to compare instead to what other players had done at the same point in their career.
baseball-reference.com has both kinds of lists for most players:
http://www.baseball-reference.com/s/swishni01.shtml

For Swisher, the first list (players whose entire careers look like Swisher's career so far) includes the guys you mention (Piatt, Werth, Voigt) and other washouts.
The second list (players whose careers up to age 24 look like Swisher's career so far) includes a much broader range of players: the most similar player on the list, Danny Walton, doesn't seem to have accomplished very much, but the top ten includes several guys who went on to have good careers - Wally Post, Richard Hidalgo (who has been kind of up and down), Frank Thomas (the one who played in the 50s and 60s), Gary Roenicke, George Foster, and Kevin McReynolds.

That seems about right to me. Like others here, I'm not totally sold on Swisher and can easily see him topping out at merely average, but can also see him having a very good career including some 35-40 HR seasons. It would be foolish to give up on him now, and there's no way that Beane will do so.

"They're like sheep...Baaaaaah" - Bill King

by andeux on Oct 21, 2005 12:04 PM PDT reply actions

Merely Average

Let me state for the record, I LOVE SWISHER! If I didn't love Bobby as much as I do, by screen name could very easily be NickSwishersGirl! So I admit that what I say may be a little bias considering how much I love the guy.

But I don't think he is merely average. To be honest, what I think happened is he was over hiped! I fell for Swisher before I read Moneyball, infact he is big part of the reason I read it in the first place. I kept hearing, "he is the moneyball kid!" So I read it, good book!

Ok, so everyone was looking at Swisher because he was this Moneyball kid and he was Beane's magic, well, BEAN! Then there was the commercial! I love it, trust me! But assuming out right that he was going to be ROY was jumping the gun just a bit. Now, if you had told me that Swisher's numbers were going to almost Mirror Bobby's numbers from last year, I would have made a commercial about him too! But there were MANY other players out there who had just as good if not better numbers this rookie season. Bobby didn't have that issue. As was said many times, if Bobby had come up this year, he never would have won ROY. And I don't hear anyone calling Bobby average (and don't even go there with me, cause I will use the "he was hurt" excuse till I am blue in the face, so please don't make me, I don't have the energy!)

My point is, I don't think he is average, I just think people expected WAY too much from him. He was suppose to be this miracle child coming up from AAA and he had a good season, good by any standards, Rookie or not! He just didn't live up to the Moneyball Kid idea that a lot of people had in their minds. Now I think people have gotten over that a bit and can look at him for who he is, not what he was preceived to be.

I think he has an amazing career ahead of him. I think he has the talent, spirit and drive to take him really great places. So lets just chill a bit on Swish and see how next year goes.

"We play our best ball when we're goofing around and having a good time" ~Bobby Crosby

by BobbyCrosbysGirl on Oct 21, 2005 1:23 PM PDT up reply actions

all he was saying

was that he could "see" Swisher turning out to be average (which is by no means a bad thing for a right fielder), yet he could also "see" Swisher producing well and hitting 35-40 home runs. I don't think he wasy saying that Swisher is actually average.

RIP Bill King "By the Beard of Zeus!" "I don't know if you heard me counting. I did over a thousand"

by ohad on Oct 21, 2005 1:26 PM PDT up reply actions

Question

Why do you respond to me and disagree with me on some minor detail when in the big picture we agree?

I know he said "see" I can see that. What I am saying is to give the kid a break. Maybe the reason he is making that prediction is because his original expectations of him were too high. Thats it! Take a deep breath, its ok!

"We play our best ball when we're goofing around and having a good time" ~Bobby Crosby

by BobbyCrosbysGirl on Oct 21, 2005 1:44 PM PDT up reply actions

Um?

You responded with such fierceness as if he was claiming Swisher would become average.

RIP Bill King "By the Beard of Zeus!" "I don't know if you heard me counting. I did over a thousand"

by ohad on Oct 21, 2005 1:57 PM PDT up reply actions

Geez you two

take it easy. This is what happens when you agree?

Copernicus felt the same way about the geocentric crew.

by salb918 on Oct 21, 2005 2:06 PM PDT up reply actions

I'm a Leo

I guess I just can't help myself! =) If I came off fierce, it wasn't intentional.

"We play our best ball when we're goofing around and having a good time" ~Bobby Crosby

by BobbyCrosbysGirl on Oct 21, 2005 2:07 PM PDT up reply actions

maybe it's the exclamation points.

I'm a gemini. I haven't the slightest clue what this means about my personality.

RIP Bill King "By the Beard of Zeus!" "I don't know if you heard me counting. I did over a thousand"

by ohad on Oct 21, 2005 2:10 PM PDT up reply actions

Twins

It means you have dueling personalities. You have the meak and reserved side of you and then you have the fierce and out there side of you. People never know what they are going to get with you. You are constantly changing your mind and can't sit still.

"We play our best ball when we're goofing around and having a good time" ~Bobby Crosby

by BobbyCrosbysGirl on Oct 21, 2005 2:16 PM PDT up reply actions

um....

Men are from Mars and Women are from Venus

That's why you're disagreeing

Hard work never hurt anyone, but I'm not taking any chances.

by Alameda Greg on Oct 21, 2005 2:32 PM PDT up reply actions

I'm rubber

You're glue, is more like it! Hehe!

We weren't disagreeing, that is the problem. =)

"We play our best ball when we're goofing around and having a good time" ~Bobby Crosby

by BobbyCrosbysGirl on Oct 21, 2005 2:35 PM PDT up reply actions

OH

I guess I only glanced at it.

You said rubber, hee hee.

Hard work never hurt anyone, but I'm not taking any chances.

by Alameda Greg on Oct 21, 2005 4:18 PM PDT up reply actions

Jennifer and Sharon don't seem to be around so....

<BaNnED!>

RIP Bill King "By the Beard of Zeus!" "I don't know if you heard me counting. I did over a thousand"

by ohad on Oct 21, 2005 4:23 PM PDT up reply actions

you are kidding me

Taking Swisher's and Johnson's rookie seasons and then comparing it to the careers of random people? You yourself said they have upside: The point is to let them fulfill it. Not to look for replacements. They already had solid rookie years and they can still improve. Beane knows this. So no, he will not go looking for RF/1B replacements. I have no idea how you deduced that Swisher "looks like he will be a part timer as well". Any player that will hit 25 homers and 88 rbi's over a full season isn't a "part timer", especially while doing this in his rookie year. The same goes for Johnson.

Basically, this is bogus.

RIP Bill King "By the Beard of Zeus!" "I don't know if you heard me counting. I did over a thousand"

by ohad on Oct 21, 2005 1:23 PM PDT reply actions

It's really not bogus, ohad

You should take a look at Bill James's comparability tool. I think he actually introduced it in one of the Baseball Abstracts originally, but The Politics of Glory/Whatever Happened to the Hall of Fame? is the best place to find an extensive summary. He admits it's just a toy, but it's an instructive toy. The question it answers is, "If a guy starts his career with this kind of season, what can we expect in the future for him?" It's not comparing him to random people -- it's comparing him (theoretically, at least) to everyone in MLB history and seeing who's most similar.

One thing you learn is that the superstars really are incomparable -- great players like Bonds or Pujols or Rickey almost never have comps anywhere near 900. But as much as we all love Swish, we have to recognize his BA as a problem -- if a 24 or 25 year old is a really, really talented hitter, it's not that hard for him to hit .240. And I think the comps reflect that a very low BA puts him in a lower category.

"And Julio Franco is batting right-handed!" -- Wayne Hagin, A's radio play-by-play, mid-80s

by Nick on Oct 21, 2005 1:31 PM PDT up reply actions

Wait a minute, ohad --

Sorry, I didn't see your comment above. Why the hell am I telling you about similarity scores, anyway? I agree with you about the age issue, of course, but if you look at the baseball reference list of comps it's not exactly a set of All-Star RFs, if you know what I mean.

"And Julio Franco is batting right-handed!" -- Wayne Hagin, A's radio play-by-play, mid-80s

by Nick on Oct 21, 2005 1:34 PM PDT up reply actions

yes but

that list does not take talent or external factors like injuries into consideration, just numbers

RIP Bill King "By the Beard of Zeus!" "I don't know if you heard me counting. I did over a thousand"

by ohad on Oct 21, 2005 1:38 PM PDT up reply actions

OK

But:to say that unfortunately he looks like a replacement player from thsi is bogus. It's a tool, but you cannot make asumptions from it. After all, he's just a rookie. He could get even worse, or even better.

Crosby hit like 232 last year, he raised that up significantly higher this year.

RIP Bill King "By the Beard of Zeus!" "I don't know if you heard me counting. I did over a thousand"

by ohad on Oct 21, 2005 1:36 PM PDT up reply actions

According to PECOTA

[which is like sim scores but includes other factors such as physical attributes (height, weight, handedness) as well as performance results/trends, and park/era adjustments] Swisher is most similar to following players:

Joe Lahoud (lame)
Ken Singleton (all-star, long solid career, short yet spectacular peak)
George Shuba (lame)
Carl Everett (basically Ken Singleton lite)
Bernie Carbo (long solid career)
Brian Downing (long solid career, good on base but power never really developed)

Further down the list you get Dave Henderson, Bobby Kielty, and Lance Berkman.

Copernicus felt the same way about the geocentric crew.

by salb918 on Oct 21, 2005 2:06 PM PDT reply actions

The Women-folk at AN

Would probably like to see "Booty" comparisons as well.

I sipped the Kool-Aid, and it tastes gooooooooood!!!

by kaweahkaweah on Oct 21, 2005 2:08 PM PDT up reply actions

right

and never mind PECOTA, tell us what PECTORALNET says, too...

Bill King "was a genius. Off the charts. The rest of us are just pretenders." ~ Ken Korach

by Poppy on Oct 21, 2005 2:43 PM PDT up reply actions

hahah

Bobby Kielty. I really hope it's lance Berkman, and could honestly see him as a semi lite Lance Berkman which would be fantastic.

RIP Bill King "By the Beard of Zeus!" "I don't know if you heard me counting. I did over a thousand"

by ohad on Oct 21, 2005 2:09 PM PDT up reply actions

In other words,

Swisher is probably going to end up somewhere between a lame disappointment and a slow All-Star, but is likely not to believe that dinosaurs ever existed.

Nico

by Nico on Oct 22, 2005 10:16 PM PDT up reply actions

This Has Probably Already Been Said

But, you can't really put a lot of stock in similarity scores based on one year of play. That's like seeing someone throw a ball, noting the upward trajectory of the ball, and assuming it was never going to come down.

If similarity scores have any predictive value at all, it would be after five or six full seasons in the majors, when you have more than one data point to base the similarity on... and even then, similarity scores like the one you've posted above are good only for showing whose career path a player has most closely tracked, not whose career path he will come closest to tracking in the future.

At age 27, Larry Walker was most similar to Leon Durham. At age 28, Danny Tartabull.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/w/walkela01.shtml

I think we all know how that one turned out.

by Uncle Charlie on Oct 21, 2005 5:07 PM PDT reply actions

Another Example

For those of you who remember Matt Nokes, he debuted at age 21 and, at age 23, hit 32 HRs for the Tigers. After that season, this is a list of his most comparable hitters: http://www.baseball-reference.com/friv/scomp.cgi?I=nokesma01:Matt+Nokes&st=int&compage=23&am p;age=23.

Not bad: Gabby Hartnett, Nomar, Ernie Banks, Yogi Berra...

Four years later, Matt Nokes' 32-HR season looked like a fluke and he was basically on the downward slope of his career. At that point, here were his most comparable hitters: http://www.baseball-reference.com/friv/scomp.cgi?I=nokesma01:Matt+Nokes&st=int&compage=27&am p;age=27.

Gus Triandos? Michael Barrett? TODD HUNDLEY? Rich Gedman? Jody Davis?

Ouch. In other words, if you had looked at Nokes' "similarity scores when he was 23 you might have thought "shit, we got to trade for this guy, he hits like Yogi Berra..." Then you would have ended up with Jody Davis. That's not cool.

by Uncle Charlie on Oct 21, 2005 5:15 PM PDT reply actions

Your joking right?

Nick swisher is a rookie. one year in the pros! Look a Crosby's stats last year. And look at them this year. He didnt play as many games, but he was hitting a lot better, in just one year. Expierience is what your leaving out of your equation. Swish probably was pulled up too early last year. He only hit .269 in AAA. So give him a rest.

"Baseball is 90% mental -- the other half is physical." Yogi Berra

by smartkidfromcarmel on Oct 22, 2005 10:40 AM PDT reply actions

OBP observation

When I turned on my this morning at 1 a.m I saw that BBTN was doing there alleged awards show and I saw that they said A.Jones was the MVP, now my question is is that he only had a .347 OBP, writers do not care about that stat. Is OBP overarted? My example is this: 2 guys in the cleanup position on opposing teams.
One guy is 1 for 2 with a double and 2 walks. He got an RBI with the double.

The other guy was 1 for 4 with a homerun. He got 3 RBI on the homer, and another one on a sac fly.

Both guys slugged 1.000. The first one also had a batting average of .500 and an OBP of .750. The second guy had an average and OBP of just .250.

So who is it better for, the leadoff guys or the middle of the order guys, pretty intertsting in my thought.

You tried your best and you failed miserably. The lesson is 'never try'.-Homer Simpson

by doublehustle22 on Oct 22, 2005 11:47 AM PDT reply actions

Most analysis shows that

OBP is far more important than SLG. My personal research shows that OBP is worth somewhere between 2.2-2.5 times the worth of ISO (ISO = SLG-AVG).

Copernicus felt the same way about the geocentric crew.

by salb918 on Oct 22, 2005 4:43 PM PDT up reply actions

It's not sufficient to say

things like "Lay off Swish--Crosby hit .232 and look at him now!" because if you do that, you have to say that every rookie who hits .232 might be a guy with .280 AVG/30HR potential. Those not sold on Swish, I imagine, aren't looking at his stats, but rather have watched him play a lot and have their reservations. That's fair enough.

What fascinates me about Swish is that in their "looking ahead" feature, Baseball America predicted he would win the batting title in 2008. Swish may be a bust, or he may grow into being an All-Star, but where did BA get the idea he would hit for a Michael Young/Ichiro level high average? Excellent power, high OBP, 100 RBI--sure. But hit .330 for a whole season? Some things just perplex me.

Nico

by Nico on Oct 22, 2005 10:21 PM PDT reply actions

If that happens I'd like to know how it

was predicted.

Swisher;

Seems committed to baseball and is from a baseball family.
These can combine to gain access that would aid a MLB career.
While not "the natural", and small statured for a power hitter, there are similar MLB career successes.
If he is looking to pattern his career "Giles" might serve.

Personal drive and discipline will probably decide but "pedigrees" don't hurt.

"...It might have been a great year with a real DH."

by A s Eh on Oct 23, 2005 2:31 PM PDT up reply actions