Right handed DH for 2006
While blockbuster trades are fun to work on, for some of us extremely fun, they are less likely to occur.
The 2005 version of the A's were very close to the playoffs. Outside of a few injuries and the lack of a DH we would have been there. I think I found a solution that would keep the team intact, and correct the main deficiency without giving away the future.
The right-handed player for DH, Craig Wilson.
2005 .264/.387/.412
I know what you are thinking. That's the right-handed power bat that is the final piece to the A's puzzle? But hear me out.
Argument for Wilson:
First-he had an off year. He hurt his hand twice last year, which lost him aprox 400 AB. The injuries are not serious. Like Chavez he broke his hand by getting hit by a pitch. No long-term problems. This would be a clasic Beane buying low trade. The Pirates were hoping for a great year out of him in 2005 prior to trading him. This is because in 2004, at the age of 27 he hit .264/.354/.499 with 35 doubles, 5 triples, and 29 Home Runs.
Second-he has a high OBP. Last year .387 Career .363 Sure he has a high SO rate as well, but at least he wont be hitting into double plays.
Third-he is from CA (we all know how Beane likes his Californians)
Fourth-he is available. The Pirates just released a press release trying to sell the fans on season tickets for 2006 they focused on the "direction they are going, the pitching, and the great core of young players." The same young players who played well while replacing people like Wilson. Conspicuously missing was any mention of Wilson. Wilson is entering his last year of arbitration. The Pirates must trade him or watch him walk at the end of the year with nothing in return. A team like the Pirates with a payroll of $38 million can't afford to lose talent w/o getting something back.
Fifth-he is affordable. The Pirates would not ask for the moon, unlike trades for Carlos Lee, Sheffield, Manny ect. In his last year of arb he might go for as little as 3.8 million.
Sixth-he can play catcher. Many of us wanted more flexibility to pinch hit using Melhuse or to be able to use him as a left handed DH. The danger of doing that was that we were exposed if Kendall got hurt during the game. With Wilson we would have that third catcher for emergencies. And if you wanted to get creative, it would even allow you to trade Melhuse since Wilson could be enough to cover the 10-15 times that Kendall doesn't catch.
Seventh-he is only 28. He should have a good power year. If he does we get draft picks for him, if not he just walks.
I believe that all Wilson would cost us is a player like Ginter. I know, I can hear some of you already, "You can't get some one for no one." But here is why the Pirates would benefit. Their second baseman is Jose Castillo. Last year Castillo missed half of the season with four different aliments. First he pulled his oblique. (Like that is not an issue) second he lost time due to Asthma. Then he pulled a hamstring. Finally he tore his MCL, which put him on the 60 day DL. That happened on August 22. They wont know if he will be fully healthy until spring training. The only replacement for Castillo is Sanchez who is favored at 3B. Ginter is healthy, he is familiar the NL, he should be able to replace the pop lost be Wilson. But best of all from the Pirates point of view is that Ginter can be controlled for three years.
Beane has said the one thing missing from the 2005 team was power. Wilson should produce that power. He will be 29, the peak age for power. He will be in the last year of arbitration, the walk year. His presence in the lineup will allow Macha to produce the R/L lineup he prefers. Next year:
Kendall (R)
Kotsay (L)
Crosby (R)
Chavez (L)
Wilson (R)
Johnson (L)
Payton (R)
Swisher (L)
Ellis (R)
Now some believe that Beane only picked up Payton for his trade value. I agree. The Diamondbacks and Nationals are two likely trade partners. But, should he not find a trade partner for Payton, the default is an outfield made up of web gems. The A's pitchers had the best BAA in the majors in part because of the defense. At the end of 2006 Payton walks and Ethier is ready to take over LF. The future is not mortgaged by trading budding prospects. 2007 Payton and Wilson walk. Either and Barton enter. The low salary allows Beane to sign Zito to a three-year extension now. Long-term plan. Starting pitchers and lineup set for three very strong years.
0 recs |
149 comments
Comments
love the idea
As you said, he was hurt most of last year and never really got back to 100%. This guy hit 29 HR in 2004. Id like to see him grow that lion mane back too.
by pickinmachine on Oct 20, 2005 3:36 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
We shall see
by ohad on Oct 20, 2005 3:38 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Wilson's perfect
http://www.athleticsnation.com/comments/2005/9/30/145013/612/132#132
by onestepahead on Oct 20, 2005 3:41 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Your right, I must have missed that post.
by Hang Man on Oct 20, 2005 3:47 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'd love Craig Wilson
However, just Ginter isn't going to get it done. How many GM's could and would offer more than that for a reasonably priced, potential 30 homer bat? At a minimum we'd have to throw in a B-level prospect like Garcia or Suzuki, which I'd be fine with. Like you said, you can't get something for nothing. After last year, nothing is exactly what Ginter is worth.
by nothinlikethetown on Oct 20, 2005 3:44 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
I want to keep Suzuki
by Hang Man on Oct 20, 2005 3:52 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Do we really need another one of these?
http://mywebpages.comcast.net/wtmiller/positions/outfield/cwilson.htm
This also isn't something to necessarily count on as a consistent offensive contriubutor: "Wilson's walk rate is a little low, but his OBP is bolstered by a tendency to get hit with pitches, in 2004 a major league-leading 30 times."
You make a good argument HM, but the more I look into Wilson, the more 2004 looks like an anomaly.
But who knows -- he could indeed be a classic undervalued-by-other-teams Beane find.
by monkeyball on Oct 20, 2005 3:47 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
I don't think 2004 was an anomaly
2002 .264/.355/.443 16 2B 16 HR 368 AB
2003 .262/.360/.511 15 2B 18 HR 309 AB
2004 .264/.354/.499 35 2B 29 HR 561 AB
2005 .264/.387/.421 14 2B 5 HR 197 AB
by Hang Man on Oct 20, 2005 4:01 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
numbers
169Ks in 04. Thats 40 more than chavvy from this year. Yikes.
by pickinmachine on Oct 20, 2005 4:04 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
40 more Strike outs, but
Wilson SLG .499 $3 mill
More slugging less money.
I would put up with a few more strike outs for a few more runs.
I never said this guy was the second coming. The point I am trying to make is that he fits the moneyball philosophy. He has career high OBP and SLG. Big Bang / little buck.
by Hang Man on Oct 20, 2005 5:22 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
defintely
by pickinmachine on Oct 20, 2005 7:56 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Anyone else reminded strongly
Lets take a look at his Splits. That might tell us more.
vs LHP:
.283/.449/.415/.864
vs RHP:
.257/.361/.424/.785
Obviously, he is Jason Giambi vs LHP, but not as great vs RHP. Though, a .361 OBP vs RHP isn't bad.
He might be a great Platoon DH though, if anything.
by Zonis on Oct 20, 2005 4:07 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
415 slugging against lefties?
by ohad on Oct 20, 2005 4:09 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Those are his splits from his injury season, 2005
vs. LHP .259/.375/.537
vs. RHP .265/.349/.490
SGL of .499 puts him tops on the team.
by Hang Man on Oct 20, 2005 4:26 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Career .488 SLG
by Hang Man on Oct 20, 2005 4:32 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
If he can't recognize/lay off breaking pitches
I can easily see Wilson, in 600 PAs with the A's, generating 175 Ks and 30 GIDPs. That's a lot of outs for not really all that much production.
by monkeyball on Oct 20, 2005 4:38 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Strikeouts dont matter
Adam Dunn
Richie Sexon
Brad Wilkerson
Troy GLaus
Jason Bay
Jim Edmonds
Alex Rodriguez
Bobby Abreu
Hank Blaylock
Grady Sizemore
Eric Chavez
Johnny Peralta
Miguel Cabrera
Alfonso Soriano
David Ortiz
Mark Texeira
Wow, these guys all suck.
by nothinlikethetown on Oct 20, 2005 4:41 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
one problem
by ohad on Oct 20, 2005 4:42 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
thank you
Now, that being said, Hang Man may be correct, and Wilson could be an elite player just waiting for someone to give him adequate PT (which, to judge from the comments at the SB Pirates blog, Jim Tracy ain't likely to give him).
But everything about his batting profile that I see whispers "Byrnes."
by monkeyball on Oct 20, 2005 4:48 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Why?
by nothinlikethetown on Oct 20, 2005 5:08 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I never said this guy is superman
Wilson should only cost 3.8 million and could be had for one fair player that would be affordable and controlled by the Pirates.
by Hang Man on Oct 20, 2005 5:10 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Given AB's
His career line is .268/.363/.488.
Then one year he got a season's worth of AB's he hit .264/.354./.499.
That's a helluva hitter.
My point wasn't that he's better than any of them, it was it wouldn't matter if he struck out 175 times. Strikeouts are a bi-product of hitting for power. Adam Dunn struck out 195 times in '04 but he hit 46 HR's and slugged .569. Despite the strikeouts he was an extremely valuable hitter, just like everyone on that list. I'd rather have someone the strikes out a lot and drives the ball than someone who always makes contact and hits dribblers to short.
by nothinlikethetown on Oct 20, 2005 4:49 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
my and ohad's point ...
by monkeyball on Oct 20, 2005 4:56 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
sure he is
His problem has been his lack of a defensive position on an NL team.
by nothinlikethetown on Oct 20, 2005 5:14 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Career high OPS' (full season)
Adam Dunn-957
Richie Sexon-927
Brad Wilkerson-872
Troy GLaus-1008
Jason Bay-961
Jim Edmonds-1061
Alex Rodriguez-1045
Bobby Abreu-995
Hank Blaylock-872
Grady Sizemore-832 (as frikkin rookie, AND he CF)
Eric Chavez-898
Johnny Peralta-886 (pretty much rookie)
Miguel Cabrera-946
Alfonso Soriano-879
David Ortiz-1001
Mark Texeira-954
Craig Wilson-853
There is one player with a lower OPS on this whole list, and he's a rookie CF, so he's not supposed to ahve power.
by ohad on Oct 20, 2005 5:44 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
conclusion
by ohad on Oct 20, 2005 5:49 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Your metric is wrong
Wilson is on par with several players on that list, hence his K's don't matter.
by nothinlikethetown on Oct 20, 2005 6:03 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
i'm too lazy to make that list
by ohad on Oct 20, 2005 6:25 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I can appreciate what you are saying
by Hang Man on Oct 20, 2005 6:59 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
true, but
by xbhaskarx on Oct 20, 2005 7:10 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
The big negative on Glaus
by nothinlikethetown on Oct 20, 2005 7:14 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Exactly
by nothinlikethetown on Oct 20, 2005 7:12 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Here you go
Richie Sexon-882
Brad Wilkerson-817
Troy GLaus-859
Jason Bay-940
Jim Edmonds-927
Alex Rodriguez-962
Bobby Abreu-923
Hank Blaylock-809
Grady Sizemore-815
Eric Chavez-846
Johnny Peralta-793
Miguel Cabrera-889
Alfonso Soriano-820
David Ortiz-900
Mark Texeira-903
Craig Wilson-851
So his career OPS is only better than Wilkerson, Blalock, Sizemore, Chavez, Peralta, and Soriano. Not a bad list if we can pick him up for as little as I think we can.
by Hang Man on Oct 20, 2005 9:05 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I noticed people got quiet after this
by RunRickeyRun on Oct 21, 2005 9:02 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
you are kidding me right
by ohad on Oct 21, 2005 9:27 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
i don't think ginter would be enough
by xbhaskarx on Oct 20, 2005 3:50 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
There are good reasons for and against
by Zonis on Oct 20, 2005 4:00 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Kendall
Personally, I like the idea. Ginter & Suzuki is fine w/ me. If not Suzuki, then Garcia.
Littlefield (Pirate GM) and Beane talk a lot, it seems. Everytime there was a rumor w/ Mark Mulder, Littlefield was in the middle of things.
We shall see.
by Colorado Fan on Oct 20, 2005 4:41 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
I like it ...
by iceplant on Oct 20, 2005 4:45 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Scouting report from Stats Inc.
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/scouting?statsId=6642
Wilson has major power and can hit the ball out to all fields, though the majority of his home runs go to left. His swing tends to get long, causing him to strike out frequently. Though Wilson had more consistent at-bats with regular plate appearances, he can still be made to chase pitches, particularly breaking balls down and away. He will crush fastballs left over the plate and also has learned to stay back on changeups and hit them hard. Wilson crowds the plate and isn't scared to get hit by a pitch. He led the major leagues in that category in 2004 with 30 last year.
by ohad on Oct 20, 2005 4:47 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
again ...
by monkeyball on Oct 20, 2005 4:49 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
nothing
by ohad on Oct 20, 2005 4:51 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Oh, I know ...
Wilson, to me, suggests Byrnes minus speed.
by monkeyball on Oct 20, 2005 4:58 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I don't think anyone would argue that he is fast
by Hang Man on Oct 20, 2005 5:03 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
...a rich man's Byrnes, maybe
Byrnes
vs. LHP .293/.352/.510
vs. RHP .241/.311/.397
Wilson
vs. LHP .301/.409/.558
vs. RHP .256/.346/.462
Like Byrnes, Wilson has a big dropoff against right-handers, but he is better by about 100 points of OPS from each side. That's a big difference: Byrnes struggles enough against righties to relegate him to a platoon role, while Wilson is still by no means an easy out.
They're also around the same age, and have the same number of major league at-bats, so I don't think it's a question of pitchers figuring out Wilson.
I know many hope we're going to get that big bat like Konerko or Kent and return Chavez to the role of 2nd best hitter with which he is supposedly more comfortable, but I still don't think that's going to happen. Getting someone like Craig Wilson or Chad Tracy is much more realistic. Of course, getting him for trash like Ginter and Garcia is a pipe dream, but that's a separate issue.
by andeux on Oct 20, 2005 5:14 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
In fact
by nothinlikethetown on Oct 20, 2005 5:28 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
great
by ohad on Oct 20, 2005 5:51 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
no
by nothinlikethetown on Oct 20, 2005 6:06 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
i meant
you mean, he's equal to our best hitters worst career year verse righties.
by ohad on Oct 20, 2005 6:14 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
No
by nothinlikethetown on Oct 20, 2005 7:08 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Ok
by ohad on Oct 21, 2005 5:35 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Good use of stats to support a position.
He, like most players, might play even better with good players around him. His OBP proves that he has a good eye. With runners on (or the likes of Crosby or Johnson behind him) pitchers would have to pitch to him. Thats a luxury that he never had in Pittsburgh.
by Hang Man on Oct 20, 2005 5:32 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
No
02-368 ab's, 21 HBP's
03-309 ab's, 13 HBP's
04-561 ab's, 30 HBP's
05-200 ab's, 10 HBP's
by ohad on Oct 20, 2005 5:48 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
But
I see your point in that a better lineup wont necessarily make him more patient, but his OBP should stay about the same regardless.
by nothinlikethetown on Oct 20, 2005 7:18 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
also...
This doesn't look good for a league change, though he'd be worth a flier. If the A's got him and he sucked, we are never trading for hitters from the Pirates again.
by ohad on Oct 20, 2005 4:49 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
that would definitley be two strikes
by xbhaskarx on Oct 20, 2005 6:54 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
If the Pirate's GM is smart
by SLOtown on Oct 20, 2005 5:05 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
You might be right
Carlos Lee
Conor Jackson
Nick Johnson
Chad Tracy
Pat Burrell
Gary Sheffield
Which is really my point. Moneyball. Buy low, he had a poor 2004 for a team that can't afford his arb salary, (Pirates $38 million last year) but can't let him walk either, can't trade him to another NL team due to his weak fielding.
I realize he had a large amount of strikeouts, but power ofter comes with strikeouts. Unless your talking $10-15 million again, which again (my point) we are only talking about $3.8 million.
by Hang Man on Oct 20, 2005 7:26 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Sheff would never play in oakland
by smartkidfromcarmel on Oct 22, 2005 10:43 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Comparison to Byrnes?
Wilson is a real power hitter, Byrnes is a guy for whom much of his power is against LHP. Wilson's ISO against RHP in 2002-04 was .202, Byrnes was .152.
by rsquared on Oct 20, 2005 5:08 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Good point, but ...
by monkeyball on Oct 20, 2005 5:15 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
also ...
by monkeyball on Oct 20, 2005 5:18 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Wilson and FBs
One cannot say what Byrnes would do with more playing time vs. RHP. That's speculation.
by rsquared on Oct 20, 2005 5:20 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Oh no! Not speculation!
by monkeyball on Oct 20, 2005 5:21 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
It's Not Speculation
A player is what he is. Craig Wilson has more power than Eric Byrnes, that is a fact and not speculation. Whether the A's are interested in Wilson and, if so, how they might acquire him is speculation.
by rsquared on Oct 20, 2005 5:24 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
when you're talking about ...
Granted, in that short time, Wilson has put up consistent numbers -- and I haven't seen his minor-league numbers, which might well bolster the case for the predictability of his past performance.
But that right there -- "predictability of his past performance" -- is by definition speculation, albeit speculation founded on a certain kind of logic and data set. But it's still speculation nonetheless.
by monkeyball on Oct 21, 2005 11:03 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
He did
Colorado: .189/.283/.226
Baltimore: .192/.246/.299
There's no comparison between him and Wilson. I understand where you're coming from in regard to the scouting reports on him not hitting breaking pitches, but the numbers dont support the scouts. Regardless of league, if he couldn't hit breaking balls, pitchers would have figured him out a long time ago.
by nothinlikethetown on Oct 20, 2005 5:23 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
have to disagree
- with more AB's against righties, Byrnes will figure them out and his numbers will improve
- with more AB's against righties, they will figure Wilson out, and his numbers will decline
by andeux on Oct 20, 2005 5:45 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Wow
I think Wilson would be a great target for a Beane pickup this offseason. It is evident no Konerko signing is in the future so we must make do with flawed players. Previously I was advocating going after Hee-Seop Choi but Wilson seems to be a better fit (Milton Bradley, though, would be a nice pickup). We have to realize that this team doesn't need much to push it over the top when you consider that all the players are so young. I think if we get Wilson and some bench players who are better than pathetic then we'll have a good shot.
Oh yeah, bat Kendall 9th too. ;P
by rickeytime on Oct 20, 2005 5:39 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Hmm...
First, Wilson's cheap -- a bonus for the Pirates because it means they can keep the payroll low. Sure they might lose him at the end of the year, but they'd get a draft pick or two, which would be a hell of a lot better than getting Ginter.
Second, Wilson produces when he's healthy. Ginter, on the other hand, killed any notion that he's anything more than a utility sub with his shitball play this year. Maybe a trip back to the NL would revive his career, but I doubt even Beane could sell the Pirates on that idea (and get Wilson out of it).
The talk that Wilson is a Byrnes-type player is just foolish. Compare the two players' 162-game averages, and you'll see how ridiculous that comparison is...
Wilson: 72 R, 126 H, 24 2B, 24 HR, 71 RBI, .268/.363/.488
Byrnes: 77 R, 127 H, 30 2B, 15 HR, 57 RBI, .259/.325/.437
Sure, Byrnes and Wilson put up similar numbers in terms of runs, hits and doubles, but beyond that it becomes clear that Wilson hits way more bombs, drives in more runs (with a shittier supporting cast), gets on base more (by about 40 OBP points) and hits for more power (by about 50 SLG points). In other words, Wilson can actually hit, while Byrnes is basically Ricky Ledee with blond hair.
So, we're not going to get him for Ginter, but he's probably worth having when healthy. I think Wilson would certainly help our lineup... the only question is whether we'd have to give too much to get him.
Lineup with Wilson
2B Ellis
CF Kotsay
DH Wilson
3B Chavez
SS Crosby
1B Johnson
LF Payton
RF Swisher
C Kendall
by Uncle Charlie on Oct 20, 2005 5:51 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
You make some great points
I'd like to get C. Wilson. I'd jump at it for Ginter and Jairo, but am unsure the Bucs would do that. That is more realistic than a lot of the other trade ideas (I'm waiting for the offseason for people to really get all video-game-trady).
by StewFan on Oct 20, 2005 6:05 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
the numbers support your point
Home .270/.372/.520
Away .257/.353/.458
However, that .458 road SLG would still be third on the team.
by Hang Man on Oct 20, 2005 6:36 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Division, too.
by StewFan on Oct 20, 2005 7:25 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
By the way
by ohad on Oct 20, 2005 5:55 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Interesting Stat I Just Read on Wilson
by Uncle Charlie on Oct 20, 2005 6:00 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Not to mention
by ohad on Oct 20, 2005 6:14 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
OHAD: Exactly
by Uncle Charlie on Oct 20, 2005 6:16 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Sorry about the double post
by complete game on Oct 20, 2005 6:21 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Wilson + 1st year in AL= 170 K... No Thanks
by Olijerez77 on Oct 20, 2005 6:34 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
170k's
by nothinlikethetown on Oct 20, 2005 7:05 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Not when
by grover on Oct 20, 2005 8:12 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
unless
by nothinlikethetown on Oct 20, 2005 9:35 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
i think you're both right
by xbhaskarx on Oct 20, 2005 9:52 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: DONT MATTER! I STRIKEOUT IS JUST ANOTHER OUT!
A strikeout is never a productive out. Guys who strike out a lot don't just get out, they also don't advance runners... This leads to fewer runs scored.
Take the example of a team who has a runner on 2nd and no outs. The team should expect to score about 1.15 runs in that inning. If the next batter strikes out, the team should expect to score about 0.70 runs in that inning. However, if the next batter grounds the ball to 2nd base, moving the runner to 3rd with one out, the team should expect to score 0.98 runs in that inning.
See: http://www.tangotiger.net/RE9902.html.
See: http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/expected_runs_matrix2005.premium.php.
In other words, the difference between moving that runner over to 3rd base with one out and leaving him at 2nd base with one out is about 1/4 of a run. If it happens once or twice, eh, no big deal. If it happens a number of times during a season... that could cost you a few games. Tell the Phillies there's no difference between a strikeout and a groundout -- they only missed the playoffs by a game.
by Uncle Charlie on Oct 21, 2005 10:54 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
That same groundball to the right side
to 2 outs and the bases empty, losing .44 probable runs. He'd also be much more likely to come up with a runner at first than a runner at second.
by devo on Oct 21, 2005 11:07 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Good idea
However, I highly doubt Ginter will get us Craig Wilson. Yeah, I know you knew we were going to say that, but still. Maybe if we bundled him up with Jairo Garcia or Kirk Saaloos they'd bite. But that's still a maybe.
by OaktownTribesman on Oct 20, 2005 6:31 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
maybe
by pickinmachine on Oct 20, 2005 7:59 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Onto the subject
Ginter is a no-no.
Jairo and Brian StaviskY?
by ohad on Oct 20, 2005 6:33 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
I think your on to something there
by Hang Man on Oct 20, 2005 8:39 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
criticism of wilson
by xbhaskarx on Oct 20, 2005 6:55 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
well, duh
By the way bhaskar: you like my Bio Data, b-i-o-d-a-t-a?
by salb918 on Oct 20, 2005 7:35 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
yeah, that is a duh
true, but obviously it's going to be difficult to get a hitter with decent power who doesn't. plus the a's don't strike out very much as a team so it wouldn't be the end of the world.
did you put your bio data on shadi.com?
by xbhaskarx on Oct 20, 2005 8:49 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
NO!
Strikeouts actually correlate positively with power. I wouldn't mind seeing, for example, Adam Dunn's 200 K/50 HRs. Since we can't get that, we'll just have to settle for 130 K/30 HR.
by salb918 on Oct 20, 2005 8:53 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I KNOW!
what is your digits, what is your screen name?
larki are you on friendster too?
by xbhaskarx on Oct 20, 2005 9:26 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Personal taste
I think it would prove to be a bigger disaster than Kendall.
by grover on Oct 21, 2005 5:54 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yes. True. But 40x more fun to watch.
Nothing wrong with this guy but I don't see him leading the A's to rings. Isn't anyone here interested in the rings at all?
by A s Eh on Oct 21, 2005 8:43 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Not at all
Placido Polanco
Tike Redman
Jose Vidro
Paul Lo Duca
Miguel Cairo
B.J. Surhoff
Luis Castillo
Alex Cintron
Edgardo Alfonzo
Magglio Ordonez
Freddy Sanchez
Aaron Miles
Johnny Estrada
Doug Mientkiewicz
Jason Kendall
There are some decent players on there. However, there are none who hit for power with the exception of Magglio (who barely qualified w/305 AB's). The main question is which list would you rather have playing for you company softball team? The ones that strike out or the ones that dont?
by nothinlikethetown on Oct 21, 2005 11:03 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Kendall
Kendall led the league with 26 GIDP. His previous career high was 18 back in 2001. In his 5,283 ABs prior to 2005 he averaged 1 GIDP every 56 ABs. This year he averaged 1 GIDP every 26 ABs. 2005 looks like a statistical anomaly but we'll only know that for sure after next season.
Meanwhile, Adam Dunn averaged 1 K every 3.3 ABs in 2001; 1:3.15 in 2002; 1:3.02 in 2003; 1:2.91 in 2004; and 1:3.4 in 2005. Any way you cut it these numbers are bad!
But let's not just dwell in numbers. Adam Dunn swings the same way regardless of the situation, he goes for the HR every time. That means when your facing the other team's best and all you need is a single to win the game, Adam Dunn is not the guy you want at the plate... at least, he's not the guy I want to see at the plate if it's my team at bat.
by grover on Oct 21, 2005 11:37 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Why
by nothinlikethetown on Oct 22, 2005 12:58 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Put Dunn in the AL
Here is the scouting report
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/scouting?statsId=6763
Obviously, a hitter who strikes out nearly 200 times needs to cut down on his whiffs. At the same time, Dunn showed much better pitch selection in getting his walks into triple figures while also hitting for a career-high average and his second-best on-base percentage. Dunn will not cut down his swing when behind in the count and he can be too selective in waiting for a pitch to hammer out of the park. He is vulnerable to breaking pitches low and away, and teams have had some success pounding him inside. However, he has become quicker on inside pitches and when he can get his arms extended, Dunn can hit balls where few other men can.
by ohad on Oct 22, 2005 5:54 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Now that's just plain silly ..
Just like most of those age old adages, the AL as a breaking ball league is greatly exagerated and NL pitchers have just as much access to ESPN.com scouting reports as AL pitchers do.
by devo on Oct 22, 2005 9:48 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Dunn is not a good hitter!
"You don't build your roster to win one game." How many Games 5's do you need to see the A's lose? Beane better build a roster good enough to win Game #84 as well as Game 7 of the World Series. If he doesn't do that what's the point?
"What about all the instances when you a single wont do it but you need a two run bomb? The contact guy wont do that, but Adam Dunn sure as hell can." True enough. But the contact hitter with a low K rate has a good chance of getting
a hit to extend the inning while Dunn has a 1 in 3 chance in striking out.
by grover on Oct 22, 2005 7:48 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
How about simplifying it
by Nico on Oct 22, 2005 8:38 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Not so ...
by devo on Oct 22, 2005 9:43 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yes, walks are nice
If Dunn walks or Mr. Mystery Contact Hitter hits a single up the middle, it doesn't answer the guy's question... what happens when you need the HR?
It's a bullshit question because it implies that there are only two possible outcomes to the at bat: A HR wins (or ties) the game and any other outcome results in a loss.
Let's cut to the chase. Dunn will likely earn a raise via arbitration that will push his salary to around $8 million dollars next year. It will likely cost Oakland a considerable amount of talent to trade for him. He is a great slugger who doesn't make adjustments. Do the A's truely need a powerful but inconsistent batter to push into the playoffs and win a World Series? Is Adam Dunn (for lack of a better metaphor) the recipe to success?
I think the answer is no.
by grover on Oct 22, 2005 10:13 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
ok
by nothinlikethetown on Oct 22, 2005 10:47 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
While we're on the subject of numbers
.221/.359/.446 14 HR in 280 ABs
Dunn's 2005 line away from home.
Or we could go...
.266/.386/.539 21 HR in 293 ABs
Dunn's 2004 line away from home.
How about...
.184/.327/.413 11 HR in 179 ABs
Dunn's 2003 numbers away from home.
"When all you need is a single" is not a referrence to a particular game situation so much as it is a state of mind that Dunn does not seem to posses. Adam Dunn swings the same regardless of game situation... he is going to go all out and try to blast the ball 500 feet.
Now, exactly how valuable is Adam Dunn? You tell me with any kind of certainty what kind of hitter he'll be away from Cinergy Field, because I've got no clue. For the dollar cost he'll demand and the talent that will leave Oakland I'd like to know what I'm getting. Dunn is a high risk/high reward player with an unacceptably low chance of coming through. That is not the kind of bet I want Oakland to make.
by grover on Oct 22, 2005 3:18 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Dunn
2002-2005 Close and Late stats:
228 at bats: 44 runs, 19 homers, 44 rbi's, 11 doubles, 50 walks, 87 K's:
.241/.385/.539/.924
Basically, it's like it's told. He swings for the fences no matter what the situation. Low contact guy. Takes the walk though. He also had a 987 OPS with runner on 3rd and less than two outs.
by ohad on Oct 22, 2005 4:31 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Even more telling numbers...
.169/.344/.441 12 HR in 179 ABs
by grover on Oct 22, 2005 5:07 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
.344 OBP with that batting average
by OaktownTribesman on Oct 22, 2005 5:54 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Never said the guy couldn't take a walk
by grover on Oct 22, 2005 6:28 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
The guy's a stud
Is he worth $8mil and prospects? Heck yeah ...
Are there better ways we could spend that cash? Maybe ... but for $8mil I'd rather have him than Giles.
by devo on Oct 22, 2005 12:34 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Over-rated
Then all Oakland would have to do is replace Harden, 'cause less anyone forgets the last time Beane inquired about Dunn Cincy said the cost of doing business would be Rich.
I'm sure I'll hate myself for that pun one day.
by grover on Oct 22, 2005 3:02 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I completely agree with you, grover,
But...
Sigh.
by Nico on Oct 22, 2005 4:37 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I said he's worth $8mil
by devo on Oct 22, 2005 9:37 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Then why are we talking about him?
by grover on Oct 23, 2005 7:29 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Eh ... nothing better to do ...
by devo on Oct 23, 2005 8:38 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
My take
by grover on Oct 20, 2005 8:14 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
I'm not so sure
But, what did you have in mind as a bigger/better move?
by StewFan on Oct 20, 2005 8:36 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
i agree
by xbhaskarx on Oct 20, 2005 8:51 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
And
I'd like Beane to take much the same approach he did at the deadline, in fact. Don't break the prospect bank for anything less that a Great player, work the angles to uprade where it's cost-effective. Don't get greedy. Stick to the game plan. Take it one offseason move at a time. Trade within himself... Blah, blah, blah.
by StewFan on Oct 20, 2005 9:23 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Athleticsfan4ever
Something along those lines.
by grover on Oct 21, 2005 5:57 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Jonny Gomes
How bout this proposal
A's get:
Jonny Gomes
Devil Rays:
Kirk Saarloos
Keith Ginter
Kurt Suzuki
A's get a power right handed stick,whos young and affordable. The Rays get a quality starter a back-up middle infielder and a catching prospect that could be ready by midseason 06'.
by jonwithana on Oct 20, 2005 9:25 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
I think
TB may think:
fringe starter, decent catching prospect and a steaming pile for our breakout player of last year AND we'd be taking on payroll? Pass.
Gomes is a good target (and a bay area kid, right?), but our spare parts, no matter how many parts they are, are still spare parts. TB doesn't need backups as much as they need ML ready talent for eventual backups to backup.
by StewFan on Oct 20, 2005 9:33 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
no way
let's keep keith ginter out of this one so we can trade later him for derek lee...
by xbhaskarx on Oct 20, 2005 9:34 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Another interesting target
by grover on Oct 21, 2005 5:56 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Ginter
by onestepahead on Oct 20, 2005 10:14 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
So much for Wilson, huh?
by Charlie Brown on Oct 21, 2005 8:25 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Jimminy Christmas
If hitters just went up to the plate hacking with no concern for where they hit the ball, then I might agree that there's very little difference between a K and any other out, but my point was that big strikeout guys tend not to make productive outs. Take the example of Adam Dunn: He didn't hit a sac fly during the entire 2004 season. The guy hits bombs like nobody's business, but he's not a controlled hitter. He swings from his heels.
For a guy who hits as many HRs as he does, wouldn't you expect him to have hit at least one sac fly if everything were just left to chance once the ball left the bat? I would. But some hitters are better at placing the ball (i.e., Wade Boggs using the Green Monster to spray doubles, Derek Jeter hitting the ball the other way to advance runners), whereas some hitters swing for the fences and don't help their team with productive outs (i.e., Adam Dunn, Wily Mo Pena).
by Uncle Charlie on Oct 21, 2005 11:13 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
And I would much rather have my middle of
by devo on Oct 21, 2005 11:21 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Where is this going?
I don't remember ever saying anything about filling my lineup with slap hitters, or finding a DH who would hit grounders up the middle. All I was saying is that, a strikeout generally hurts a team more than, or least as much as, another type of out (unless it's a double-play).
by Uncle Charlie on Oct 21, 2005 11:58 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Here
Which is essentially a truism since you're excluding the only way an out could directly hurt the team more.
The point is, if you're saying that by striking out, he's taking away the opportunity to try to hit balls behind the runner, it's also taking away his ability to hit homeruns. Why? Because if, as the professional hitter he is, once he gets behind in the count, he becomes a slap it behind the runner sort of hitter, there is no possibility for a homerun and very little for other extra base hits.
By choosing to hit behind the runner, you're choosing to not hit homeruns. That's fine if you're Juan Pierre or Jason Kendall and you're not going to hit a homerun anyway. If you're Craig Wilson, Adam Dunn or someone of their ilk, the team is much better off with them swinging away, even if it results in more strikeouts.
by devo on Oct 21, 2005 12:10 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I have an idea:
Hang on--I just found out those ideas are already taken. :-(
by Nico on Oct 21, 2005 6:10 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
And this is where we disagree...
Even the best HR hitters of all time only hit HR in one of 15-20 plate appearences. No matter how hard they might try, they can't make it happen every time. In other words, there might be times when it would be better for a guy like Dunn to give himself up for the good of the team.
In my mind, the idea that a HR-hitter should swing for the fences every time indicates a failure to think of baseball as a team game. There are other ways to score runs other than hitting HRs, despite what Billy Beane or Earl Weaber might tell you.
We can agree to disagree.
by Uncle Charlie on Oct 21, 2005 12:24 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
I don't agree to that ...
Take the runner at second, no out situation. Grounding out to second, moving the runner over, the team now will score on average .9795 runs that inning.
Now, lets take Craig Wilson. Swinging as he "normally" does (at least normal in his healthy 2004), he will single 13% of the time, double 6%, triple 1%, homer 5%, walk 9%, make out 65% (putting errors aside).
We'll assume no outs advance the runner, for simplicity and conservativism. We'll assume no singles plate the runner.
Singles:
.13*(0 runs scored immediately(Rs) + 1.8 potential runs(PR)) = .23 runs
Doubles:
.06*(1 Rs + 1.1 PR) = .13 runs
Triples:
.01*(1 Rs + 1.5 PR) = .03 runs
Homers:
.05*(2 Rs + .5 PR) = .13 runs
Walks:
.09*(0 Rs + 1.5 PR) = .14 runs
Makes out:
.65*(0 Rs + .69 PR) = .45 runs
.24+.13+.03+.13+.14+.45=1.11 runs
Even under this conservative scenerio (it's so conservative that an above average hitter netter a below average return), swinging away outpaces grounding out to the second baseman by .13 runs.
Of course, if he came up in this situation and the opposing pitcher was absolutely dealing, then, sure, you might just want him to hit behind the runner. But then, the half dozen or so times that might happen wouldn't affect his k rate all that much.
by devo on Oct 21, 2005 12:55 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
You Say Potato, I Say Potahto
by Uncle Charlie on Oct 21, 2005 12:25 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Put it this way...
But he doesn't. He's got nine or ten other guys out there with him who all think of themselves as decent soccer players, and who can probably score too.
Same thing applies to baseball. Every single player in a starting lineup is capable of hitting a single up the middle and scoring a guy from second base. So why not occasionally make the likelihood of scoring a run a little higher rather than thinking you have to get it done yourself? That's why there are eight other guys in a lineup...
by Uncle Charlie on Oct 21, 2005 12:33 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
logic alert
In baseball, outs are your limiting factor in scoring. Making an out to advance the runner doesn't do you a lot of good. Yes, the runners are closer to scoring, but you're also closer to ending the inning.
One of the things that makes baseball unique is the defence controls the ball, but the offence controls the "clock." The focus of an offence should be to avoid outs at all costs. Power hitters shouldn't be bunting or rolling over on a pitch, because compared to a home run or double, there is no value in giving yourself up.
by MrIncognito on Oct 23, 2005 5:12 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Not debating K's and such
by ohad on Oct 21, 2005 1:52 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
low strikeouts <> high GDPs
by Zitos Child Bearing Hips on Oct 21, 2005 5:22 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

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