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Right handed DH for 2006

While blockbuster trades are fun to work on, for some of us extremely fun, they are less likely to occur.  

The 2005 version of the A's were very close to the playoffs.  Outside of a few injuries and the lack of a DH we would have been there.  I think I found a solution that would keep the team intact, and correct the main deficiency without giving away the future.  

The right-handed player for DH, Craig Wilson.  
2005 .264/.387/.412

I know what you are thinking.  That's the right-handed power bat that is the final piece to the A's puzzle?  But hear me out.

Argument for Wilson:
First-he had an off year.  He hurt his hand twice last year, which lost him aprox 400 AB.  The injuries are not serious.  Like Chavez he broke his hand by getting hit by a pitch.  No long-term problems. This would be a clasic Beane buying low trade.  The Pirates were hoping for a great year out of him in 2005 prior to trading him.  This is because in 2004, at the age of 27 he hit .264/.354/.499 with 35 doubles, 5 triples, and 29 Home Runs.

Second-he has a high OBP.  Last year .387 Career .363  Sure he has a high SO rate as well, but at least he wont be hitting into double plays.

Third-he is from CA (we all know how Beane likes his Californians)  

Fourth-he is available.  The Pirates just released a press release trying to sell the fans on season tickets for 2006 they focused on the "direction they are going, the pitching, and the great core of young players."  The same young players who played well while replacing people like Wilson.  Conspicuously missing was any mention of Wilson.  Wilson is entering his last year of arbitration.  The Pirates must trade him or watch him walk at the end of the year with nothing in return.  A team like the Pirates with a payroll of $38 million can't afford to lose talent w/o getting something back.  

Fifth-he is affordable.  The Pirates would not ask for the moon, unlike trades for Carlos Lee, Sheffield, Manny ect.  In his last year of arb he might go for as little as 3.8 million.  

Sixth-he can play catcher.  Many of us wanted more flexibility to pinch hit using Melhuse or to be able to use him as a left handed DH.  The danger of doing that was that we were exposed if Kendall got hurt during the game.  With Wilson we would have that third catcher for emergencies.  And if you wanted to get creative, it would even allow you to trade Melhuse since Wilson could be enough to cover the 10-15 times that Kendall doesn't catch.  

Seventh-he is only 28. He should have a good power year.  If he does we get draft picks for him, if not he just walks.  

I believe that all Wilson would cost us is a player like Ginter.  I know, I can hear some of you already, "You can't get some one for no one." But here is why the Pirates would benefit.  Their second baseman is Jose Castillo.  Last year Castillo missed half of the season with four different aliments.  First he pulled his oblique. (Like that is not an issue) second he lost time due to Asthma.  Then he pulled a hamstring. Finally he tore his MCL, which put him on the 60 day DL.  That happened on August 22.  They wont know if he will be fully healthy until spring training.  The only replacement for Castillo is Sanchez who is favored at 3B.  Ginter is healthy, he is familiar the NL, he should be able to replace the pop lost be Wilson.  But best of all from the Pirates point of view is that Ginter can be controlled for three years.  

Beane has said the one thing missing from the 2005 team was power. Wilson should produce that power.   He will be 29, the peak age for power.  He will be in the last year of arbitration, the walk year.  His presence in the lineup will allow Macha to produce the R/L lineup he prefers.  Next year:
Kendall  (R)
Kotsay   (L)
Crosby  (R)
Chavez  (L)
Wilson   (R)
Johnson (L)
Payton   (R)
Swisher (L)
Ellis      (R)

Now some believe that Beane only picked up Payton for his trade value.  I agree.  The Diamondbacks and Nationals are two likely trade partners. But, should he not find a trade partner for Payton, the default is an outfield made up of web gems.  The A's pitchers had the best BAA in the majors in part because of the defense.  At the end of 2006 Payton walks and Ethier is ready to take over LF.  The future is not mortgaged by trading budding prospects.  2007 Payton and Wilson walk.  Either and Barton enter.  The low salary allows Beane to sign Zito to a three-year extension now.    Long-term plan. Starting pitchers and lineup set for three very strong years.  

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love the idea
if we could get him relatively cheap.  Not sure if Ginter is enough, but I'd be down with Ginter and a prospect.  

As you said, he was hurt most of last year and never really got back to 100%.  This guy hit 29 HR in 2004.  Id like to see him grow that lion mane back too.

by pickinmachine on Oct 20, 2005 3:36 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

We shall see
Hopefully BCG likes this one. It's a good idea.
RIP Bill King "By the Beard of Zeus!" "I don't know if you heard me counting. I did over a thousand"

by ohad on Oct 20, 2005 3:38 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Wilson's perfect
I suggested Wilson a little while back but nobody seemed interested to comment ;)

http://www.athleticsnation.com/comments/2005/9/30/145013/612/132#132

by onestepahead on Oct 20, 2005 3:41 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Your right, I must have missed that post.
I found him by reading other team blogs.  The Pirate fans know he is gone.  I was really intrigued to find out that he can catch.  

by Hang Man on Oct 20, 2005 3:47 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I'd love Craig Wilson
for all the reasons you mentioned.  

However, just Ginter isn't going to get it done. How many GM's could and would offer more than that for a reasonably priced, potential 30 homer bat? At a minimum we'd have to throw in a B-level prospect like Garcia or Suzuki, which I'd be fine with. Like you said, you can't get something for nothing. After last year, nothing is exactly what Ginter is worth.

"May our feet be swift. May our bats be mighty. And may our balls be...plentiful."

by nothinlikethetown on Oct 20, 2005 3:44 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

I want to keep Suzuki
But I wouldn't blink at a Ginter Garcia trade.  The thing with the Pirates is that their pitching is surprisingly deep, young, and good.  Outside of Bay  and Wilson all of their position players are AAAA quality.  

by Hang Man on Oct 20, 2005 3:52 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Do we really need another one of these?
"his problem isn't so much being unable to hit breaking balls as being unable to lay off "breaking balls he can't hit." Specifically, he has trouble laying off breaking balls away."

http://mywebpages.comcast.net/wtmiller/positions/outfield/cwilson.htm

This also isn't something to necessarily count on as a consistent offensive contriubutor: "Wilson's walk rate is a little low, but his OBP is bolstered by a tendency to get hit with pitches, in 2004 a major league-leading 30 times."

You make a good argument HM, but the more I look into Wilson, the more 2004 looks like an anomaly.

But who knows -- he could indeed be a classic undervalued-by-other-teams Beane find.

Bill loved butter.

by monkeyball on Oct 20, 2005 3:47 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

I don't think 2004 was an anomaly
If anything Wilson has been the epitome of consistancy.  The only factor different about 2004 was that he got a full year of ABs.

2002 .264/.355/.443  16 2B 16 HR 368 AB
2003 .262/.360/.511  15 2B 18 HR 309 AB
2004 .264/.354/.499  35 2B 29 HR 561 AB
2005 .264/.387/.421  14 2B  5 HR 197 AB

by Hang Man on Oct 20, 2005 4:01 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

numbers
the only thing worth noting is that he whiffs a ton.

169Ks in 04.  Thats 40 more than chavvy from this year.  Yikes.

by pickinmachine on Oct 20, 2005 4:04 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

40 more Strike outs, but
Chavy SLG .466  $10 mil
Wilson SLG .499 $3 mill
More slugging less money.

I would put up with a few more strike outs for a few more runs.

I never said this guy was the second coming.  The point I am trying to make is that he fits the moneyball philosophy.  He has career high OBP and SLG.  Big Bang / little buck.

by Hang Man on Oct 20, 2005 5:22 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

defintely
and im a fan of this idea, just pointing out the Ks.

by pickinmachine on Oct 20, 2005 7:56 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Anyone else reminded strongly
of Eric Byrnes?

Lets take a look at his Splits. That might tell us more.

vs LHP:
.283/.449/.415/.864

vs RHP:
.257/.361/.424/.785

Obviously, he is Jason Giambi vs LHP, but not as great vs RHP. Though, a .361 OBP vs RHP isn't bad.

He might be a great Platoon DH though, if anything.

... and it was at that point that I realized that by thinking outside the box, I had simply walked inside a cube...

by Zonis on Oct 20, 2005 4:07 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

415 slugging against lefties?
This is not power folks.
RIP Bill King "By the Beard of Zeus!" "I don't know if you heard me counting. I did over a thousand"

by ohad on Oct 20, 2005 4:09 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Those are his splits from his injury season, 2005
2004:

vs. LHP .259/.375/.537
vs. RHP .265/.349/.490

SGL of .499 puts him tops on the team.

by Hang Man on Oct 20, 2005 4:26 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Career .488 SLG
The A's had the least amount of SO in the AL.  They had players that could play defense first and hit second.  This lead to a SLG 21st in the ML.  While SO are frustating so are guys rolling their wrists over and grounding into double plays.  If we have to take a few strike outs to get a player with .488 career SLG what better spot than DH?

by Hang Man on Oct 20, 2005 4:32 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

If he can't recognize/lay off breaking pitches
we can expect that AL pitchers will throw him nothing but junk -- so that even when he does hit the junk, he'll be likely to roll over on it.

I can easily see Wilson, in 600 PAs with the A's, generating 175 Ks and 30 GIDPs. That's a lot of outs for not really all that much production.

Bill loved butter.

by monkeyball on Oct 20, 2005 4:38 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Strikeouts dont matter
These hitters are all in the top 20 in MLB in K's:

Adam Dunn
Richie Sexon
Brad Wilkerson
Troy GLaus
Jason Bay
Jim Edmonds
Alex Rodriguez
Bobby Abreu
Hank Blaylock
Grady Sizemore
Eric Chavez
Johnny Peralta
Miguel Cabrera
Alfonso Soriano
David Ortiz
Mark Texeira

Wow, these guys all suck.

"May our feet be swift. May our bats be mighty. And may our balls be...plentiful."

by nothinlikethetown on Oct 20, 2005 4:41 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

one problem
Craig Wilson does not produce like those guys. That lis is loaded with some of the best playres in the game...
RIP Bill King "By the Beard of Zeus!" "I don't know if you heard me counting. I did over a thousand"

by ohad on Oct 20, 2005 4:42 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

thank you
NLTT, you're right in that Ks don't matter -- but only if the batter is a "three-true-outcomes"-type hitter.

Now, that being said, Hang Man may be correct, and Wilson could be an elite player just waiting for someone to give him adequate PT (which, to judge from the comments at the SB Pirates blog, Jim Tracy ain't likely to give him).

But everything about his batting profile that I see whispers "Byrnes."

Bill loved butter.

by monkeyball on Oct 20, 2005 4:48 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Why?
Byrnes never put up numbers as good as Wilson. Byrnes' big problem is his lefty/righty splits.  He can't hit right handed pitching. Wilson doesn't have the same problem. He is one of the better hitters in baseball given AB's. What you say reminds you of Byrnes is the K's and my point was that they dont matter.
"May our feet be swift. May our bats be mighty. And may our balls be...plentiful."

by nothinlikethetown on Oct 20, 2005 5:08 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I never said this guy is superman
I'll I am pointing out is that some of those other guys (Dunn, Sexon, Glaus ect) cost $10-15 million a year and it would take many prospects to trade for them.  

Wilson should only cost 3.8 million and could be had for one fair player that would be affordable and controlled by the Pirates.  

by Hang Man on Oct 20, 2005 5:10 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Given AB's
he does.

His career line is .268/.363/.488.

Then one year he got a season's worth of AB's he hit .264/.354./.499.

That's a helluva hitter.

My point wasn't that he's better than any of them, it was it wouldn't matter if he struck out 175 times. Strikeouts are a bi-product of hitting for power. Adam Dunn struck out 195 times in '04 but he hit 46 HR's and slugged .569. Despite the strikeouts he was an extremely valuable hitter, just like everyone on that list.  I'd rather have someone the strikes out a lot and drives the ball than someone who always makes contact and hits dribblers to short.

"May our feet be swift. May our bats be mighty. And may our balls be...plentiful."

by nothinlikethetown on Oct 20, 2005 4:49 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

my and ohad's point ...
... isn't that he's better than anyone on your list -- it's that he's not as good as anyone on that list.
Bill loved butter.

by monkeyball on Oct 20, 2005 4:56 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

sure he is
a line of .268/.363/.488 is as good as many people on that list.  He's not David Ortiz or A-Rod, granted, but as hitter he matches Wilkerson, Sizemore, Soriano, and Chavez.  It could also be argued that he's better than Blaylock and Glaus.

His problem has been his lack of a defensive position on an NL team.

"May our feet be swift. May our bats be mighty. And may our balls be...plentiful."

by nothinlikethetown on Oct 20, 2005 5:14 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Career high OPS' (full season)
Here is that list in terms of career high OPS:

Adam Dunn-957
Richie Sexon-927
Brad Wilkerson-872
Troy GLaus-1008
Jason Bay-961
Jim Edmonds-1061
Alex Rodriguez-1045
Bobby Abreu-995
Hank Blaylock-872
Grady Sizemore-832 (as frikkin rookie, AND he CF)
Eric Chavez-898
Johnny Peralta-886 (pretty much rookie)
Miguel Cabrera-946
Alfonso Soriano-879
David Ortiz-1001
Mark Texeira-954
Craig Wilson-853

There is one player with a lower OPS on this whole list, and he's a rookie CF, so he's not supposed to ahve power.

RIP Bill King "By the Beard of Zeus!" "I don't know if you heard me counting. I did over a thousand"

by ohad on Oct 20, 2005 5:44 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

conclusion
he is not as good as any of them.
RIP Bill King "By the Beard of Zeus!" "I don't know if you heard me counting. I did over a thousand"

by ohad on Oct 20, 2005 5:49 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Your metric is wrong
career high OPS doesn't tell us anything.  Some of them have had 1-2 year careers, whereas others have had 10 year careers.  Choosing each players best one and comparing them proves nothing. For example, Troy Glaus hasn't had a 1000+ OPS over a full season in quite some time, neither has Soriano since his near 40-40 season for that matter. Career OPS would be a much better measure of their success than one season.  In that regard,
Wilson is on par with several players on that list, hence his K's don't matter.
"May our feet be swift. May our bats be mighty. And may our balls be...plentiful."

by nothinlikethetown on Oct 20, 2005 6:03 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

i'm too lazy to make that list
RIP Bill King "By the Beard of Zeus!" "I don't know if you heard me counting. I did over a thousand"

by ohad on Oct 20, 2005 6:25 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I can appreciate what you are saying
However, what about the proposition that Wilson can be acquired 10 times easier than any of those players?

by Hang Man on Oct 20, 2005 6:59 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

true, but
maybe we should be at least weighing the positives and negatives for a possible glaus trade as well...  
A's v Giants "is kind of like the difference between going to see the Ramones and going to see the Bee Gees. A's fans will go see the Ramones." -BB 07/27/05

by xbhaskarx on Oct 20, 2005 7:10 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

The big negative on Glaus
is his contract.  As good as he is, he is not an $11 mil per year player. I'd much rather have Wilson for the money especially if all either is going to do is DH.
"May our feet be swift. May our bats be mighty. And may our balls be...plentiful."

by nothinlikethetown on Oct 20, 2005 7:14 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Exactly
The point I was trying to make isn't that Wilson is in the same class as those players, (altough he is with regard to some) it's that these great players also strike out a lot. The number of strikeouts someone puts up doesn't matter if they are an effective power hitter, which Wilson is. The great thing about Wilson, as HM so deftly put, is that he is one of the few quality bats that could be had without selling the farm or throwing $10 million at him.
"May our feet be swift. May our bats be mighty. And may our balls be...plentiful."

by nothinlikethetown on Oct 20, 2005 7:12 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Here you go
Adam Dunn-901
Richie Sexon-882
Brad Wilkerson-817
Troy GLaus-859
Jason Bay-940
Jim Edmonds-927
Alex Rodriguez-962
Bobby Abreu-923
Hank Blaylock-809
Grady Sizemore-815
Eric Chavez-846
Johnny Peralta-793
Miguel Cabrera-889
Alfonso Soriano-820
David Ortiz-900
Mark Texeira-903
Craig Wilson-851

So his career OPS is only better than Wilkerson, Blalock, Sizemore, Chavez, Peralta, and Soriano.  Not a bad list if we can pick him up for as little as I think we can.

by Hang Man on Oct 20, 2005 9:05 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I noticed people got quiet after this
It's better than Chavvy and probably $8 mil a year less.

by RunRickeyRun on Oct 21, 2005 9:02 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

you are kidding me right
people got quiet because there is no point in arguing who is better between the two because we all know the answer.
RIP Bill King "By the Beard of Zeus!" "I don't know if you heard me counting. I did over a thousand"

by ohad on Oct 21, 2005 9:27 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

i don't think ginter would be enough
but it might not be a bad idea to go after wilson.
A's v Giants "is kind of like the difference between going to see the Ramones and going to see the Bee Gees. A's fans will go see the Ramones." -BB 07/27/05

by xbhaskarx on Oct 20, 2005 3:50 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

There are good reasons for and against
the most compelling reason for, however, is the two picks for him though.
... and it was at that point that I realized that by thinking outside the box, I had simply walked inside a cube...

by Zonis on Oct 20, 2005 4:00 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Kendall
I'm sure BB would ask Jason Kendall what he thought, and how he would fit w/ the team...  

Personally, I like the idea.  Ginter & Suzuki is fine w/ me.  If not Suzuki, then Garcia.  

Littlefield (Pirate GM) and Beane talk a lot, it seems.  Everytime there was a rumor w/ Mark Mulder, Littlefield was in the middle of things.

We shall see.

Let's Go Oak-Land!

by Colorado Fan on Oct 20, 2005 4:41 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

I like it ...
I've been focused on Jeff Kent, mainly because I think he'd be available for what are spare parts to us, because he'd be a one year rental, and because we'd get draft picks when he walks at the end of the year.  Wilson fits all these criteria.  I still think Kent is a better choice, but he's also about $6 million more expensive.  Also, I think Kent is closer to average defensively, while Wilson is closer to bad.  All that said, Wilson can hit for power and I think he'd be a good consolation prize.  

by iceplant on Oct 20, 2005 4:45 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Scouting report from Stats Inc.
Courtesy of ESPN.com....

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/scouting?statsId=6642

Wilson has major power and can hit the ball out to all fields, though the majority of his home runs go to left. His swing tends to get long, causing him to strike out frequently. Though Wilson had more consistent at-bats with regular plate appearances, he can still be made to chase pitches, particularly breaking balls down and away. He will crush fastballs left over the plate and also has learned to stay back on changeups and hit them hard. Wilson crowds the plate and isn't scared to get hit by a pitch. He led the major leagues in that category in 2004 with 30 last year.

RIP Bill King "By the Beard of Zeus!" "I don't know if you heard me counting. I did over a thousand"

by ohad on Oct 20, 2005 4:47 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

again ...
... what about that description doesn't fit Byrnesie?
Bill loved butter.

by monkeyball on Oct 20, 2005 4:49 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

nothing
i was just adding more information.
RIP Bill King "By the Beard of Zeus!" "I don't know if you heard me counting. I did over a thousand"

by ohad on Oct 20, 2005 4:51 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Oh, I know ...
You and I are on the same page here. I was just reiterating.

Wilson, to me, suggests Byrnes minus speed.

Bill loved butter.

by monkeyball on Oct 20, 2005 4:58 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

yes
and we don't want to go back into that "arena"
RIP Bill King "By the Beard of Zeus!" "I don't know if you heard me counting. I did over a thousand"

by ohad on Oct 20, 2005 5:00 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I don't think anyone would argue that he is fast
But he has come up with 10 triples in the last three years. (realy only two years worth of ABs)

by Hang Man on Oct 20, 2005 5:03 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

...a rich man's Byrnes, maybe
Career numbers:
Byrnes
  vs. LHP .293/.352/.510    
  vs. RHP .241/.311/.397    
Wilson
  vs. LHP .301/.409/.558    
  vs. RHP .256/.346/.462

Like Byrnes, Wilson has a big dropoff against right-handers, but he is better by about 100 points of OPS from each side. That's a big difference: Byrnes struggles enough against righties to relegate him to a platoon role, while Wilson is still by no means an easy out.
They're also around the same age, and have the same number of major league at-bats, so I don't think it's a question of pitchers figuring out Wilson.

I know many hope we're going to get that big bat like Konerko or Kent and return Chavez to the role of 2nd best hitter with which he is supposedly more comfortable, but I still don't think that's going to happen. Getting someone like Craig Wilson or Chad Tracy is much more realistic. Of course, getting him for trash like Ginter and Garcia is a pipe dream, but that's a separate issue.

"They're like sheep...Baaaaaah" - Bill King

by andeux on Oct 20, 2005 5:14 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

In fact
Wilson's numbers against righties equals about what Chavy hit this year overall.
"May our feet be swift. May our bats be mighty. And may our balls be...plentiful."

by nothinlikethetown on Oct 20, 2005 5:28 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

great
Wilson's career numbers match Chavez worst year. Terrific. If you are trying to make a point by this, thats stupid. If you are jsut saying that because you noticed that they look alike, that makes sense.
RIP Bill King "By the Beard of Zeus!" "I don't know if you heard me counting. I did over a thousand"

by ohad on Oct 20, 2005 5:51 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

no
I said his stats against righties were equal to Chavez overall.  His overall career numbers are significantly better than that. My point was that even though he has a L/R split that favors facing lefties, he's till equal to our best hitter against righties.
"May our feet be swift. May our bats be mighty. And may our balls be...plentiful."

by nothinlikethetown on Oct 20, 2005 6:06 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

i meant
career numbers against righties.

you mean, he's equal to our best hitters worst career year verse righties.

RIP Bill King "By the Beard of Zeus!" "I don't know if you heard me counting. I did over a thousand"

by ohad on Oct 20, 2005 6:14 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

No
You're missing my point.  The original argument was that Wilson's got a bad lefty/righty split.  Which he does.  My point was that even against righties, he's as good as what Chavez did this year OVERALL (against both lefties AND righties). In essence what is supposedly the "weak" point of his offensive game is as good as arguably our best offensive player.
"May our feet be swift. May our bats be mighty. And may our balls be...plentiful."

by nothinlikethetown on Oct 20, 2005 7:08 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Ok
The supposed "weak" point of his offensive game is not as good as our best offensive player. It's as good as our offensive player's worst career year.
RIP Bill King "By the Beard of Zeus!" "I don't know if you heard me counting. I did over a thousand"

by ohad on Oct 21, 2005 5:35 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Good use of stats to support a position.
Another point to consider is that Wilson achieved his numbers in a lineup devoid of talent.  In 2004 when he had his best year, Bay was injuried for a large portion of the year.  Wilson was supported by a cast of AAAA players.  (and a few AA)

He, like most players, might play even better with good players around him.  His OBP proves that he has a good eye.  With runners on (or the likes of Crosby or Johnson behind him) pitchers would have to pitch to him.  Thats a luxury that he never had in Pittsburgh.

by Hang Man on Oct 20, 2005 5:32 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

No
His OBP proves he has a fat left elbow. 50 walks in 630+ plate appearances is nice. 30 HBP's in that span is nicer. And it's not just a one time thing. The scouts inc says the same thing, and the stats back it up:

02-368 ab's, 21 HBP's
03-309 ab's, 13 HBP's
04-561 ab's, 30 HBP's
05-200 ab's, 10 HBP's

RIP Bill King "By the Beard of Zeus!" "I don't know if you heard me counting. I did over a thousand"

by ohad on Oct 20, 2005 5:48 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

But
Don't those stats show that he will continue to get on base via the HBP? Those are pretty consistent numbers which shows it as a skill rather than a fluke.

I see your point in that a better lineup wont necessarily make him more patient, but his OBP should stay about the same regardless.

"May our feet be swift. May our bats be mighty. And may our balls be...plentiful."

by nothinlikethetown on Oct 20, 2005 7:18 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

also...
Hitting Mechanics: Fastball hitter, strikes out too much.

This doesn't look good for a league change, though he'd be worth a flier. If the A's got him and he sucked, we are never trading for hitters from the Pirates again.

RIP Bill King "By the Beard of Zeus!" "I don't know if you heard me counting. I did over a thousand"

by ohad on Oct 20, 2005 4:49 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

that would definitley be two strikes
A's v Giants "is kind of like the difference between going to see the Ramones and going to see the Bee Gees. A's fans will go see the Ramones." -BB 07/27/05

by xbhaskarx on Oct 20, 2005 6:54 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

If the Pirate's GM is smart
He'll be able to get more than Ginter and a prospect out of Beane.  How do I figure?  Worth to your team.  To a team like the Pirates, a guy who can potentially hit 30 hrs is worth a lot.  He should know that Ginter isnt worth much to us (since we sent him to Sac today).  So, I imagine if a deal brings Wilson to Oakland, it will cost us more than a minor leaguer and a major league disappointment.
I rebuilt your mom last night.

by SLOtown on Oct 20, 2005 5:05 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

You might be right
However, whatever the cost, it would be less than what it would take to get:
Carlos Lee
Conor Jackson
Nick Johnson
Chad Tracy
Pat Burrell
Gary Sheffield

Which is really my point.  Moneyball.  Buy low, he had a poor 2004 for a team that can't afford his arb salary, (Pirates $38 million last year) but can't let him walk either, can't trade him to another NL team due to his weak fielding.  

I realize he had a large amount of strikeouts, but power ofter comes with strikeouts.  Unless your talking $10-15 million again, which again (my point) we are only talking about $3.8 million.

by Hang Man on Oct 20, 2005 7:26 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Sheff would never play in oakland
"Baseball is 90% mental -- the other half is physical." Yogi Berra

by smartkidfromcarmel on Oct 22, 2005 10:43 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Comparison to Byrnes?
Ok, I'm not necessarily saying that I want Craig Wilson, but...Wilson has a career Isolated Power mark of .220 whereas Byrnes is .178.  42 points of Isolated Power has virtually the same value as a 42-point difference in batting average.  (Isolated Power correlates almost exactly as well as batting average with team run production.)

Wilson is a real power hitter, Byrnes is a guy for whom much of his power is against LHP.  Wilson's ISO against RHP in 2002-04 was .202, Byrnes was .152.

by rsquared on Oct 20, 2005 5:08 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Good point, but ...
... I'd expect that (a) Wilson would see zero fastballs if he came to the AL, and his numbers against RHs could suffer substantially, and (b) given more regular ABs vs RHs, Byrnes would have had significantly less dramatic splits.
Bill loved butter.

by monkeyball on Oct 20, 2005 5:15 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

also ...
... a big chunk of Wilson's OBP is dependent on HBPs. Yes, HBP is a skill (and a skill that I appreciate), but it's also an outcome that is highly pitcher-dependent -- again, I think Wilson's numbers in this area would drop off significantly switching leagues.
Bill loved butter.

by monkeyball on Oct 20, 2005 5:18 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Wilson and FBs
If a hitter gets 500 PA in a year and averages, say, 3.8 pitches per PA, then he is going to see 1900 pitches.  I realize you didn't literally mean zero fastballs, but Craig Wilson would still see hundreds of fastballs if he came to an AL team.

One cannot say what Byrnes would do with more playing time vs. RHP.  That's speculation.

by rsquared on Oct 20, 2005 5:20 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Oh no! Not speculation!
This entire diary is speculation!
Bill loved butter.

by monkeyball on Oct 20, 2005 5:21 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

It's Not Speculation
to evaluate players.  It is speculation to talk about potential acquisitions how they might be acquired.

A player is what he is.  Craig Wilson has more power than Eric Byrnes, that is a fact and not speculation.  Whether the A's are interested in Wilson and, if so, how they might acquire him is speculation.

by rsquared on Oct 20, 2005 5:24 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

when you're talking about ...
... a player with only one season of full-time ML play, and only two additional half-seasons, I'd call that speculation.

Granted, in that short time, Wilson has put up consistent numbers -- and I haven't seen his minor-league numbers, which might well bolster the case for the predictability of his past performance.

But that right there -- "predictability of his past performance" -- is by definition speculation, albeit speculation founded on a certain kind of logic and data set. But it's still speculation nonetheless.

Bill loved butter.

by monkeyball on Oct 21, 2005 11:03 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

He did
He was an everyday player for both Baltimore and Colorado after he was traded and he was terrible.

Colorado: .189/.283/.226

Baltimore: .192/.246/.299

There's no comparison between him and Wilson. I understand where you're coming from in regard to the scouting reports on him not hitting breaking pitches, but the numbers dont support the scouts. Regardless of league, if he couldn't hit breaking balls, pitchers would have figured him out a long time ago.

"May our feet be swift. May our bats be mighty. And may our balls be...plentiful."

by nothinlikethetown on Oct 20, 2005 5:23 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

have to disagree
I don't really buy either argument. In fact, they almost contradict one another. As I mentioned above, the two players are about the same age, and have about the same number of major league at-bats (in each case, 500 against lefties, and over 1000 against righties), but you seem to be arguing:
  1. with more AB's against righties, Byrnes will figure them out and his numbers will improve
  2. with more AB's against righties, they will figure Wilson out, and his numbers will decline
I don't see why these would both be true. No one here is arguing that Wilson is the perfect player - he's going to strike out a ton, and he doesn't have the upside of someone like Dunn. But it seems pretty clear to me that he's a significantly better hitter than Byrnes.
"They're like sheep...Baaaaaah" - Bill King

by andeux on Oct 20, 2005 5:45 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Wow
This is the most intelligent conversation I've seen on AN in quite a while. Excellent analysis.

I think Wilson would be a great target for a Beane pickup this offseason. It is evident no Konerko signing is in the future so we must make do with flawed players. Previously I was advocating going after Hee-Seop Choi but Wilson seems to be a better fit (Milton Bradley, though, would be a nice pickup). We have to realize that this team doesn't need much to push it over the top when you consider that all the players are so young. I think if we get Wilson and some bench players who are better than pathetic then we'll have a good shot.

Oh yeah, bat Kendall 9th too. ;P

by rickeytime on Oct 20, 2005 5:39 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Hmm...
... the only problem here is that we will not be able to get Wilson for nothing (i.e., Ginter).  

First, Wilson's cheap -- a bonus for the Pirates because it means they can keep the payroll low.  Sure they might lose him at the end of the year, but they'd get a draft pick or two, which would be a hell of a lot better than getting Ginter.  

Second, Wilson produces when he's healthy.  Ginter, on the other hand, killed any notion that he's anything more than a utility sub with his shitball play this year.  Maybe a trip back to the NL would revive his career, but I doubt even Beane could sell the Pirates on that idea (and get Wilson out of it).  

The talk that Wilson is a Byrnes-type player is just foolish.  Compare the two players' 162-game averages, and you'll see how ridiculous that comparison is...  

Wilson: 72 R, 126 H, 24 2B, 24 HR, 71 RBI, .268/.363/.488
Byrnes: 77 R, 127 H, 30 2B, 15 HR, 57 RBI, .259/.325/.437

Sure, Byrnes and Wilson put up similar numbers in terms of runs, hits and doubles, but beyond that it becomes clear that Wilson hits way more bombs, drives in more runs (with a shittier supporting cast), gets on base more (by about 40 OBP points) and hits for more power (by about 50 SLG points).  In other words, Wilson can actually hit, while Byrnes is basically Ricky Ledee with blond hair.  

So, we're not going to get him for Ginter, but he's probably worth having when healthy.  I think Wilson would certainly help our lineup... the only question is whether we'd have to give too much to get him.  

Lineup with Wilson

2B Ellis
CF Kotsay
DH Wilson
3B Chavez
SS Crosby
1B Johnson
LF Payton
RF Swisher
C  Kendall

by Uncle Charlie on Oct 20, 2005 5:51 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

You make some great points
but (and I think this is a minor but) isn't PNC supposed to be a great hitter's park?  whereas Byrnes played mostly in the more even Oak yard.  I think there is still a big enough diff. to overcome that, but that may make them a bit closer.

I'd like to get C. Wilson.  I'd jump at it for Ginter and Jairo, but am unsure the Bucs would do that.  That is more realistic than a lot of the other trade ideas (I'm waiting for the offseason for people to really get all video-game-trady).

by StewFan on Oct 20, 2005 6:05 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

the numbers support your point
2002-2004
Home .270/.372/.520
Away .257/.353/.458

However, that .458 road SLG would still be third on the team.

by Hang Man on Oct 20, 2005 6:36 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

yep,
he'd be a good 'un, just wanted to point out that he would have a drop off due to the park (in addition to the league).  

Thanks for looking that up, I was being lazy, not doing it myself.

by StewFan on Oct 20, 2005 7:21 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Division, too.
ChiC, Hou, Cin also have hitters parks (Cubs is heavily wind dependant, but still) that's most of the division.  But the Cubs, Astros and Card's have good pitching staffs is the other end of that bit of minutia.  :-)

by StewFan on Oct 20, 2005 7:25 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

By the way
I'm not necessarily against it. He's a fairly cheap alternative to other ideas.
RIP Bill King "By the Beard of Zeus!" "I don't know if you heard me counting. I did over a thousand"

by ohad on Oct 20, 2005 5:55 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Interesting Stat I Just Read on Wilson
His outrageous numbers in April-May of 2004 (which contributed greatly to his overall numbers in 2004) were fueled in part by a 45% BABIP (batting average on balls in play).  The typical BABIP for a hitter lies somewhere in the range of 29-32%, meaning that Wilson's early 2004 numbers were partly the product of skill and partly the product of really good luck.  I still tend to think that he'd be a good pickup for the A's, but this is certainly something to consider when citing his 2004 numbers as a reason to pick him up.  

by Uncle Charlie on Oct 20, 2005 6:00 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Not to mention
After those first two months he hit 205 the rest of the way.
RIP Bill King "By the Beard of Zeus!" "I don't know if you heard me counting. I did over a thousand"

by ohad on Oct 20, 2005 6:14 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

OHAD: Exactly
In other words, Wilson's only rival in terms of streakiness might be Chavez.  Could work out really well -- when one gets hot, the other gets cold, sort of like investing in stocks and bonds.  On the other hand, if they both go cold at the same time... yowsah!!  The A's offense would stink worse than a donkey's ass.  

by Uncle Charlie on Oct 20, 2005 6:16 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Sorry about the double post
What I was going to say is that it really depends on the cost. Ginter isn't going to do it by himself, and Suzuki seems to be in the team's longterm plan. That said, Wilson is an economical option to fill the right-handed power void. But as to his catching: it is imperative that whoever backs up Kendall next year be a superlative catch and throw guy. Wilson is certainly not that.

by complete game on Oct 20, 2005 6:21 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

170k's
DONT MATTER! I STRIKEOUT IS JUST ANOTHER OUT!
"May our feet be swift. May our bats be mighty. And may our balls be...plentiful."

by nothinlikethetown on Oct 20, 2005 7:05 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Not when
you have a runner on 3rd with less than two out. Than a K really does suck.

by grover on Oct 20, 2005 8:12 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

unless
someone grounds into a double play.  Then it really sucks.
"May our feet be swift. May our bats be mighty. And may our balls be...plentiful."

by nothinlikethetown on Oct 20, 2005 9:35 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

i think you're both right
outs suck.  runs are good.  losing sucks.  winning is good.
A's v Giants "is kind of like the difference between going to see the Ramones and going to see the Bee Gees. A's fans will go see the Ramones." -BB 07/27/05

by xbhaskarx on Oct 20, 2005 9:52 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: DONT MATTER! I STRIKEOUT IS JUST ANOTHER OUT!
Wrong -- there are productive outs and there are strikeouts.  Granted, some outs are neither strikeouts nor productive outs (i.e., groundball double plays, shallow fly outs, foul outs, comebackers), but some outs can be productive (i.e., grounding the ball to the right side with a runner on 2nd and no outs, sac flys, sac bunts, etc.).  

A strikeout is never a productive out.  Guys who strike out a lot don't just get out, they also don't advance runners...  This leads to fewer runs scored.  

Take the example of a team who has a runner on 2nd and no outs.  The team should expect to score about 1.15 runs in that inning.  If the next batter strikes out, the team should expect to score about 0.70 runs in that inning.  However, if the next batter grounds the ball to 2nd base, moving the runner to 3rd with one out, the team should expect to score 0.98 runs in that inning.  

See:  http://www.tangotiger.net/RE9902.html.
See:  http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/expected_runs_matrix2005.premium.php.  

In other words, the difference between moving that runner over to 3rd base with one out and leaving him at 2nd base with one out is about 1/4 of a run.  If it happens once or twice, eh, no big deal.  If it happens a number of times during a season... that could cost you a few games.  Tell the Phillies there's no difference between a strikeout and a groundout -- they only missed the playoffs by a game.  

by Uncle Charlie on Oct 21, 2005 10:54 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

That same groundball to the right side
with a runner at first turns into a double play - going from 1 out and a runner on first after a k
to 2 outs and the bases empty, losing .44 probable runs. He'd also be much more likely to come up with a runner at first than a runner at second.
Monkeyball Note: if the A's postgame radio host was an evil supervillain, his official Evil Supervillain Laugh would be "Buan-ha-ha-ha-ha!!!")

by devo on Oct 21, 2005 11:07 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Good idea
Craig Wilson was under the radar this season, which means he is just the type of player Beane likes to pick up in the offseason- buy low, sell high.

However, I highly doubt Ginter will get us Craig Wilson. Yeah, I know you knew we were going to say that, but still. Maybe if we bundled him up with Jairo Garcia or Kirk Saaloos they'd bite. But that's still a maybe.

by OaktownTribesman on Oct 20, 2005 6:31 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

maybe
just depends on if the pirates want to shop him now or before the deadline next season.  Its pretty clear that the pirates will most likely not be in a pennant race.  

by pickinmachine on Oct 20, 2005 7:59 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Onto the subject
of what it would take to get him, which hasn't really been discussed in full.

Ginter is a no-no.

Jairo and Brian StaviskY?

RIP Bill King "By the Beard of Zeus!" "I don't know if you heard me counting. I did over a thousand"

by ohad on Oct 20, 2005 6:33 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

I think your on to something there
The Pirates have a decent SS prospect in AAA (DeCaster) and a good C as well (Paulino), what they are short on is OF help.  Stavisky might just be the ticket.  

by Hang Man on Oct 20, 2005 8:39 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

criticism of wilson
while i'm not discouraging it, let's realize that NO ONE the a's could possibly get is going to be without their problems....
A's v Giants "is kind of like the difference between going to see the Ramones and going to see the Bee Gees. A's fans will go see the Ramones." -BB 07/27/05

by xbhaskarx on Oct 20, 2005 6:55 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

well, duh
Don't we always pick up players with obvious flaws?

By the way bhaskar: you like my Bio Data, b-i-o-d-a-t-a?

Copernicus felt the same way about the geocentric crew.

by salb918 on Oct 20, 2005 7:35 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

yeah, that is a duh
but it's in response to the "he strikes out a lot" concerns.
true, but obviously it's going to be difficult to get a hitter with decent power who doesn't.  plus the a's don't strike out very much as a team so it wouldn't be the end of the world.

did you put your bio data on shadi.com?

A's v Giants "is kind of like the difference between going to see the Ramones and going to see the Bee Gees. A's fans will go see the Ramones." -BB 07/27/05

by xbhaskarx on Oct 20, 2005 8:49 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

NO!
No, my bio data is not on the site.  I was just referencing the song.  Good for a laugh.

Strikeouts actually correlate positively with power.  I wouldn't mind seeing, for example, Adam Dunn's 200 K/50 HRs.  Since we can't get that, we'll just have to settle for 130 K/30 HR.

Copernicus felt the same way about the geocentric crew.

by salb918 on Oct 20, 2005 8:53 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I KNOW!
i was referencing it as well...
what is your digits, what is your screen name?  
larki are you on friendster too?
A's v Giants "is kind of like the difference between going to see the Ramones and going to see the Bee Gees. A's fans will go see the Ramones." -BB 07/27/05

by xbhaskarx on Oct 20, 2005 9:26 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Personal taste
And I'd be sick to my stonach if the A's brought Dunn's 40 HR/170 K $9 million contract into the fold.

I think it would prove to be a bigger disaster than Kendall.

by grover on Oct 21, 2005 5:54 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Yes. True. But 40x more fun to watch.
I still think we need the veteran bat. A guy that does every year and has the track record to go with it. A bat that takes the pressure off our young guys. Adding another guy with 2 seasons work is fine if we had a bopper already.

Nothing wrong with this guy but I don't see him leading the A's to rings. Isn't anyone here interested in the rings at all?

"...It might have been a great year with a real DH."

by A s Eh on Oct 21, 2005 8:43 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Not at all
The K's vs moving runners over balances out. Kendall didn't strike out much, but he led the league in GIDP's. The exact opposite happened with regard to Dunn. Putting the ball in play doesn't mean anything if it's not productive. Dunn is productive becaus enot only does he hit 40 HR's but he gets on base at nearly a .400 clip.  You've seen the list of who strikes out the most.  Let's look at who strikes out the least (min 300 AB):

Placido Polanco
Tike Redman
Jose Vidro
Paul Lo Duca
Miguel Cairo
B.J. Surhoff
Luis Castillo
Alex Cintron
Edgardo Alfonzo
Magglio Ordonez
Freddy Sanchez
Aaron Miles
Johnny Estrada
Doug Mientkiewicz
Jason Kendall

There are some decent players on there.  However, there are none who hit for power with the exception of Magglio (who barely qualified w/305 AB's). The main question is which list would you rather have playing for you company softball team? The ones that strike out or the ones that dont?

"May our feet be swift. May our bats be mighty. And may our balls be...plentiful."

by nothinlikethetown on Oct 21, 2005 11:03 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Kendall
I never liked the Kendall trade so using him to support your case does nothing with me. I don't think Kendall should be on the A's and I feel the same way about Dunn.

Kendall led the league with 26 GIDP. His previous career high was 18 back in 2001. In his 5,283 ABs prior to 2005 he averaged 1 GIDP every 56 ABs. This year he averaged 1 GIDP every 26 ABs. 2005 looks like a statistical anomaly but we'll only know that for sure after next season.

Meanwhile, Adam Dunn averaged 1 K every 3.3 ABs in 2001; 1:3.15 in 2002; 1:3.02 in 2003; 1:2.91 in 2004; and 1:3.4 in 2005. Any way you cut it these numbers are bad!

But let's not just dwell in numbers. Adam Dunn swings the same way regardless of the situation, he goes for the HR every time. That means when your facing the other team's best and all you need is a single to win the game, Adam Dunn is not the guy you want at the plate... at least, he's not the guy I want to see at the plate if it's my team at bat.

by grover on Oct 21, 2005 11:37 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Why
does the argument always come down to "when all you need is a single?" What about the other 90% of a player's at-bats when a walk is as good as a single or when a HR in the fifth makes that single in the ninth unescessary? What about all the instances when you a single wont do it but you need a two run bomb? The contact guy wont do that, but Adam Dunn sure as hell can. Over the course of a season the runs add up if you get on base and slug .540. That's what you look for when evaluating a player.  You don't build your roster to win one game.  You build it to win 95 games, which is why walks and home runs matter and strikeouts dont when they correllate with power. That is why Adam Dunn is one of the best hitters in baseball, and at only 25 years old is the kind of young talent you build a team around.
"May our feet be swift. May our bats be mighty. And may our balls be...plentiful."

by nothinlikethetown on Oct 22, 2005 12:58 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Put Dunn in the AL
And you get 250 K's and 30 homers.

Here is the scouting report

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/scouting?statsId=6763

Obviously, a hitter who strikes out nearly 200 times needs to cut down on his whiffs. At the same time, Dunn showed much better pitch selection in getting his walks into triple figures while also hitting for a career-high average and his second-best on-base percentage. Dunn will not cut down his swing when behind in the count and he can be too selective in waiting for a pitch to hammer out of the park. He is vulnerable to breaking pitches low and away, and teams have had some success pounding him inside. However, he has become quicker on inside pitches and when he can get his arms extended, Dunn can hit balls where few other men can.

RIP Bill King "By the Beard of Zeus!" "I don't know if you heard me counting. I did over a thousand"

by ohad on Oct 22, 2005 5:54 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Now that's just plain silly ..
If this guy switches leagues, he'll all of a sudden become the worst contact hitter ever - breaking the record in mid-August.

Just like most of those age old adages, the AL as a breaking ball league is greatly exagerated and NL pitchers have just as much access to ESPN.com scouting reports as AL pitchers do.

Monkeyball Note: if the A's postgame radio host was an evil supervillain, his official Evil Supervillain Laugh would be "Buan-ha-ha-ha-ha!!!")

by devo on Oct 22, 2005 9:48 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

well
i was exaggerating. but be sure to see more k's in the al.
RIP Bill King "By the Beard of Zeus!" "I don't know if you heard me counting. I did over a thousand"

by ohad on Oct 22, 2005 10:30 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Dunn is not a good hitter!
He is not "one of the best hitters in baseball" like you say. Dunn is a great slugger and there is a very clear distinction between the two terms. Dunn is actually a rather poor hitter as his career .248 batting average can attest. He simply doesn't make adjustments well.

"You don't build your roster to win one game." How many Games 5's do you need to see the A's lose? Beane better build a roster good enough to win Game #84 as well as Game 7 of the World Series. If he doesn't do that what's the point?

"What about all the instances when you a single wont do it but you need a two run bomb? The contact guy wont do that, but Adam Dunn sure as hell can." True enough. But the contact hitter with a low K rate has a good chance of getting
a hit to extend the inning while Dunn has a 1 in 3 chance in striking out.

by grover on Oct 22, 2005 7:48 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

How about simplifying it
to this: Baseball is a game of adjustments. Thus, players who can and will make adjustments are more appealing than players who won't. The same goes for managers, and the same goes for GMs.
Nico

by Nico on Oct 22, 2005 8:38 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Not so ...
well, you're right that the contact hitter has a better chance at getting a single - but Adam Dunn, he of the .400 obp has a better chance of prolonging the inning.
Monkeyball Note: if the A's postgame radio host was an evil supervillain, his official Evil Supervillain Laugh would be "Buan-ha-ha-ha-ha!!!")

by devo on Oct 22, 2005 9:43 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Yes, walks are nice
Walks don't drive in runs that often, sometimes you need a hit to win. Or sometimes you just need a hit to drive in the tying run.

If Dunn walks or Mr. Mystery Contact Hitter hits a single up the middle, it doesn't answer the guy's question... what happens when you need the HR?

It's a bullshit question because it implies that there are only two possible outcomes to the at bat: A HR wins (or ties) the game and any other outcome results in a loss.

Let's cut to the chase. Dunn will likely earn a raise via arbitration that will push his salary to around $8 million dollars next year. It will likely cost Oakland a considerable amount of talent to trade for him. He is a great slugger who doesn't make adjustments. Do the A's truely need a powerful but inconsistent batter to push into the playoffs and win a World Series? Is Adam Dunn (for lack of a better metaphor) the recipe to success?

I think the answer is no.

by grover on Oct 22, 2005 10:13 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

ok
What if you need a double? Dunn hit 37 of those to got with his HR's. I know HR's are not only outcome, but neither are singles. And once again you've reduced it down to "when all you need is a single." There are not as many of those situations as you would think. Also, Dunn hit .248/.468/.574 with 11 homers, 9 doubles, 40 K's and 51 walks in 129 AB's with RISP. So, in those situations, he has nearly a 50% chance of prolonging the inning and a decent chance at clearing the bases with an extra base hit. He also struck out LESS than he walked, and as a result scored 71 runs after getting on base in those situations. What more needs to be said to prove how valuable he is?  
"May our feet be swift. May our bats be mighty. And may our balls be...plentiful."

by nothinlikethetown on Oct 22, 2005 10:47 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

While we're on the subject of numbers
How about this:

.221/.359/.446 14 HR in 280 ABs

Dunn's 2005 line away from home.

Or we could go...

.266/.386/.539 21 HR in 293 ABs

Dunn's 2004 line away from home.

How about...

.184/.327/.413 11 HR in 179 ABs

Dunn's 2003 numbers away from home.

"When all you need is a single" is not a referrence to a particular game situation so much as it is a state of mind that Dunn does not seem to posses. Adam Dunn swings the same regardless of game situation... he is going to go all out and try to blast the ball 500 feet.

Now, exactly how valuable is Adam Dunn? You tell me with any kind of certainty what kind of hitter he'll be away from Cinergy Field, because I've got no clue. For the dollar cost he'll demand and the talent that will leave Oakland I'd like to know what I'm getting. Dunn is a high risk/high reward player with an unacceptably low chance of coming through. That is not the kind of bet I want Oakland to make.

by grover on Oct 22, 2005 3:18 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Dunn
Here's a stat that will help you with "what if we need a single but he's going for a homer" type stuff:

2002-2005 Close and Late stats:

228 at bats: 44 runs, 19 homers, 44 rbi's, 11 doubles, 50 walks, 87 K's:

.241/.385/.539/.924

Basically, it's like it's told. He swings for the fences no matter what the situation. Low contact guy. Takes the walk though. He also had a 987 OPS with runner on 3rd and less than two outs.

RIP Bill King "By the Beard of Zeus!" "I don't know if you heard me counting. I did over a thousand"

by ohad on Oct 22, 2005 4:31 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Even more telling numbers...
Dunn in the 7th inning and beyond:

.169/.344/.441 12 HR in 179 ABs

by grover on Oct 22, 2005 5:07 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

.344 OBP with that batting average
Tells you that pitchers are pitching around him in the 7th inning and beyond, which makes sense.

by OaktownTribesman on Oct 22, 2005 5:54 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Never said the guy couldn't take a walk
I'm just saying his hitting skills leave much to be desired.

by grover on Oct 22, 2005 6:28 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

The guy's a stud
He's an on-base machine, he's a great athlete for someone his size, and he's arguably the best power hitter in the game today.

Is he worth $8mil and prospects? Heck yeah ...
Are there better ways we could spend that cash? Maybe ... but for $8mil I'd rather have him than Giles.

Monkeyball Note: if the A's postgame radio host was an evil supervillain, his official Evil Supervillain Laugh would be "Buan-ha-ha-ha-ha!!!")

by devo on Oct 22, 2005 12:34 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Over-rated
$8 million this year, $10-12 next and then free agency beckons. I'll give you a "maybe" in the arguement he's worth the cash for the next two years.

Then all Oakland would have to do is replace Harden, 'cause less anyone forgets the last time Beane inquired about Dunn Cincy said the cost of doing business would be Rich.

I'm sure I'll hate myself for that pun one day.

by grover on Oct 22, 2005 3:02 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I completely agree with you, grover,
but would add that I for the 2006 and 2007 team's needs, I would pay that $8-12 million for Dunn before I'd pay it for Kendall.

But...

Sigh.

Nico

by Nico on Oct 22, 2005 4:37 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I said he's worth $8mil
for '06, that's all I said ... obviously if Richie Rich were part of the deal, it would have to be a three way where we also acquired King Felix.
Monkeyball Note: if the A's postgame radio host was an evil supervillain, his official Evil Supervillain Laugh would be "Buan-ha-ha-ha-ha!!!")

by devo on Oct 22, 2005 9:37 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Then why are we talking about him?
How can we have any sort of conversation about acquiring Dunn if we don't discuss the players the A's would lose? The cost of the player has to be a factor in determining his value to the team.

by grover on Oct 23, 2005 7:29 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Eh ... nothing better to do ...
but, seriously, obviously, with Harden, it doesn't happen. If they want a couple of good, but not spectaculr prospects, we can work something out ...
Monkeyball Note: if the A's postgame radio host was an evil supervillain, his official Evil Supervillain Laugh would be "Buan-ha-ha-ha-ha!!!")

by devo on Oct 23, 2005 8:38 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

My take
Wilson is an interesting option, but I'd rather see Billy go for broke first. Beane has only so many cards to play in the Trade Game and I don't want to see him squander a one.

by grover on Oct 20, 2005 8:14 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

I'm not so sure
going for broke is a wise decision since the FA market is sparse.  That'll probably jack up the trade market.

But, what did you have in mind as a bigger/better move?

by StewFan on Oct 20, 2005 8:36 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

i agree
trade, not FA.
A's v Giants "is kind of like the difference between going to see the Ramones and going to see the Bee Gees. A's fans will go see the Ramones." -BB 07/27/05

by xbhaskarx on Oct 20, 2005 8:51 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

And
even the trade market'll be influenced by the FA scarcity.  (AND if the deadline was any indication, it would've taken a great offer to land an impact player even w/o the shortage).

I'd like Beane to take much the same approach he did at the deadline, in fact.  Don't break the prospect bank for anything less that a Great player, work the angles to uprade where it's cost-effective.  Don't get greedy.  Stick to the game plan.  Take it one offseason move at a time.  Trade within himself...  Blah, blah, blah.

by StewFan on Oct 20, 2005 9:23 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Athleticsfan4ever
Has a diary with some merit, especially if he drops Webb from the deal.

Something along those lines.

by grover on Oct 21, 2005 5:57 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Jonny Gomes
How about Jonny Gomes? The D-Rays have amazing depth in outfield with Baldelli,Young,Crawford,Gathright and Huff and the Rays desperately need a catching prospect as Toby Hall just doesn't cut it and could be non-tendered.

How bout this proposal
A's get:
Jonny Gomes

Devil Rays:
Kirk Saarloos
Keith Ginter
Kurt Suzuki

A's get a power right handed stick,whos young and affordable. The Rays get a quality starter a back-up middle infielder and a catching prospect that could be ready by midseason 06'.

by jonwithana on Oct 20, 2005 9:25 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

I think
that's not enough to get it done.

TB may think:
fringe starter, decent catching prospect and a steaming pile for our breakout player of last year AND we'd be taking on payroll?  Pass.

Gomes is a good target (and a bay area kid, right?), but our spare parts, no matter how many parts they are, are still spare parts.  TB doesn't need backups as much as they need ML ready talent for eventual backups to backup.

by StewFan on Oct 20, 2005 9:33 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

no way
that is way too many K names to be losing for Jonny.  
let's keep keith ginter out of this one so we can trade later him for derek lee...
A's v Giants "is kind of like the difference between going to see the Ramones and going to see the Bee Gees. A's fans will go see the Ramones." -BB 07/27/05

by xbhaskarx on Oct 20, 2005 9:34 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Another interesting target
But I don't think your offer would be good enough. Besides, TB has too many CF types. They'll be looking to move one of their non-power bats first.

by grover on Oct 21, 2005 5:56 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Ginter
Ginter has zero trade value right now. Any team could've taken him for FREE, they only had to pickup the tab on his contract. He was removed from the 40 man and outrighted to AAA. No one snagged him.

by onestepahead on Oct 20, 2005 10:14 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

So much for Wilson, huh?
Might have been a decent addition.  Anyone can have Ginter for picking up his salary for next year.
Charlie Brown GO A'S WIN

by Charlie Brown on Oct 21, 2005 8:25 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Jimminy Christmas
Hmm... yeah, except people who are good hitters have some control over where they hit the ball.  Generally, when you see a guy hit a grounder to the right side, you can tell he's making a concerted effort to hit a groundball to the second baseman.  When there's a runner on first, people don't make a concerted effort to hit a grounder in the middle of the diamond.

If hitters just went up to the plate hacking with no concern for where they hit the ball, then I might agree that there's very little difference between a K and any other out, but my point was that big strikeout guys tend not to make productive outs.  Take the example of Adam Dunn: He didn't hit a sac fly during the entire 2004 season.  The guy hits bombs like nobody's business, but he's not a controlled hitter.  He swings from his heels.  

For a guy who hits as many HRs as he does, wouldn't you expect him to have hit at least one sac fly if everything were just left to chance once the ball left the bat?  I would.  But some hitters are better at placing the ball (i.e., Wade Boggs using the Green Monster to spray doubles, Derek Jeter hitting the ball the other way to advance runners), whereas some hitters swing for the fences and don't help their team with productive outs (i.e., Adam Dunn, Wily Mo Pena).  

by Uncle Charlie on Oct 21, 2005 11:13 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

And I would much rather have my middle of
the order DH aiming for the outfield seats or one of the gaps, not the second baseman.
Monkeyball Note: if the A's postgame radio host was an evil supervillain, his official Evil Supervillain Laugh would be "Buan-ha-ha-ha-ha!!!")

by devo on Oct 21, 2005 11:21 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Where is this going?
As far as I remember, the point of my original post was that a strikeout is not the same as any other out.  My point was that a hitter who doesn't strike out as much is more likely to make productive outs and help his team by moving runners over even when he does get out.  

I don't remember ever saying anything about filling my lineup with slap hitters, or finding a DH who would hit grounders up the middle.  All I was saying is that, a strikeout generally hurts a team more than, or least as much as, another type of out (unless it's a double-play).  

by Uncle Charlie on Oct 21, 2005 11:58 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Here
All I was saying is that, a strikeout generally hurts a team more than, or least as much as, another type of out (unless it's a double-play).

Which is essentially a truism since you're excluding the only way an out could directly hurt the team more.

The point is, if you're saying that by striking out, he's taking away the opportunity to try to hit balls behind the runner, it's also taking away his ability to hit homeruns. Why? Because if, as the professional hitter he is, once he gets behind in the count, he becomes a slap it behind the runner sort of hitter, there is no possibility for a homerun and very little for other extra base hits.

By choosing to hit behind the runner, you're choosing to not hit homeruns. That's fine if you're Juan Pierre or Jason Kendall and you're not going to hit a homerun anyway. If you're Craig Wilson, Adam Dunn or someone of their ilk, the team is much better off with them swinging away, even if it results in more strikeouts.

Monkeyball Note: if the A's postgame radio host was an evil supervillain, his official Evil Supervillain Laugh would be "Buan-ha-ha-ha-ha!!!")

by devo on Oct 21, 2005 12:10 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I have an idea:
Let's just tell all our hitters to "swing hard and often and hope something good happens." Also, let's change our name to the Detroit Tigers.

Hang on--I just found out those ideas are already taken.  :-(

Nico

by Nico on Oct 21, 2005 6:10 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

And this is where we disagree...
... because I think there are times when even Craig Wilson, Adam Dunn, etc. should ease back and help his team out with a good out, rather than just swinging like a wild man in the hopes that he hits a HR.  

Even the best HR hitters of all time only hit HR in one of 15-20 plate appearences.  No matter how hard they might try, they can't make it happen every time.  In other words, there might be times when it would be better for a guy like Dunn to give himself up for the good of the team.  

In my mind, the idea that a HR-hitter should swing for the fences every time indicates a failure to think of baseball as a team game.  There are other ways to score runs other than hitting HRs, despite what Billy Beane or Earl Weaber might tell you.  

We can agree to disagree.  

by Uncle Charlie on Oct 21, 2005 12:24 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

I don't agree to that ...
well, I'm not sure, maybe I do, let's look at some numbers.

Take the runner at second, no out situation. Grounding out to second, moving the runner over, the team now will score on average .9795 runs that inning.

Now, lets take Craig Wilson. Swinging as he "normally" does (at least normal in his healthy 2004), he will single 13% of the time, double 6%, triple 1%, homer 5%, walk 9%, make out 65% (putting errors aside).

We'll assume no outs advance the runner, for simplicity and conservativism. We'll assume no singles plate the runner.

Singles:
.13*(0 runs scored immediately(Rs) + 1.8 potential runs(PR)) = .23 runs
Doubles:
.06*(1 Rs + 1.1 PR) = .13 runs
Triples:
.01*(1 Rs + 1.5 PR) = .03 runs
Homers:
.05*(2 Rs + .5 PR) = .13 runs
Walks:
.09*(0 Rs + 1.5 PR) = .14 runs
Makes out:
.65*(0 Rs + .69 PR) = .45 runs

.24+.13+.03+.13+.14+.45=1.11 runs
Even under this conservative scenerio (it's so conservative that an above average hitter netter a below average return), swinging away outpaces grounding out to the second baseman by .13 runs.

Of course, if he came up in this situation and the opposing pitcher was absolutely dealing, then, sure, you might just want him to hit behind the runner. But then, the half dozen or so times that might happen wouldn't affect his k rate all that much.

Monkeyball Note: if the A's postgame radio host was an evil supervillain, his official Evil Supervillain Laugh would be "Buan-ha-ha-ha-ha!!!")

by devo on Oct 21, 2005 12:55 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Put it this way...
... as a kid playing soccer, there was always some fuckhead on your team that would shoot from 30 yards out, rather than passing to a guy closer to the goal for an easier shot.  Sometimes that guy would score, but more often he would miss or the goalie would make a save.  Of course, had he passed the ball, there would have been a chance that the ball would have been stolen, or the pass would have been off-line, or whatever.  But, had he completed the pass, it would have made the likelihood of a goal much greater...  Well, that kid is Adam Dunn.  He thinks he has to get it done all by himself.  

But he doesn't.  He's got nine or ten other guys out there with him who all think of themselves as decent soccer players, and who can probably score too.  

Same thing applies to baseball.  Every single player in a starting lineup is capable of hitting a single up the middle and scoring a guy from second base.  So why not occasionally make the likelihood of scoring a run a little higher rather than thinking you have to get it done yourself?  That's why there are eight other guys in a lineup...  

by Uncle Charlie on Oct 21, 2005 12:33 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

logic alert
That analogy is deeply flawed. Passing the ball in soccer has no cost associated with it. A team wants the best shot, period. A better analogy would be 2 players coming down the field on a fast break with 5 seconds left. You have to decide, is it better to take your shot, or risk passing the ball and getting no shot at all?

In baseball, outs are your limiting factor in scoring. Making an out to advance the runner doesn't do you a lot of good. Yes, the runners are closer to scoring, but you're also closer to ending the inning.

One of the things that makes baseball unique is the defence controls the ball, but the offence controls the "clock." The focus of an offence should be to avoid outs at all costs. Power hitters shouldn't be bunting or rolling over on a pitch, because compared to a home run or double, there is no value in giving yourself up.

by MrIncognito on Oct 23, 2005 5:12 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Not debating K's and such
My problem is, he already struck out 170 times in the NL. Move him to the AL where the offspeed stuff is more common, and you have 200 K's. According to scouting reports, he still struggles with breaking balls and is a sucker for the low and away one. Pitchers will pounce on this.
RIP Bill King "By the Beard of Zeus!" "I don't know if you heard me counting. I did over a thousand"

by ohad on Oct 21, 2005 1:52 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

But ohad,
remember: if Dunn were in the American League he wouldn't have to face the opposing pitcher.

OK, I really need to stop drinking so heavily.

Nico

by Nico on Oct 21, 2005 6:06 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

low strikeouts <> high GDPs
Angels consistently have low strikeout AND low GDP totals. They haven't ranked higher than 9th of 14 in GDPs in the last several years. In fact, in 2002 the Angels had the FEWEST Ks and GDPs.

by Zitos Child Bearing Hips on Oct 21, 2005 5:22 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

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