My trade thoughts.....
by gatling on Oct 20, 2005 12:17 PM PDT
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PrintAs A's fans, I think most of us can agree a few changes need to be made to the team prior to the start of next season. There have been many names bandied about over the last three weeks, not to mention during the season.
There are those who feel we should pursue a high profile free agent like Brian Giles. Others think a superstar like Manny Ramirez or Gary Sheffield are solid options. Some of us, are interested in established hitters like Carlos Lee, others want talented prospects like Lastings Milledge, Connor Jackson, or Carlos Quentin, and still others want cheap, young hitters like Chad Tracy or Lyle Overbay.
I've read many posts and diaries about these differing opinions, and I still don't know what I'd rather see happen. I do know that I want some sort of change to be made, and I think that maybe the more dramatic, the better. This team is essentially the same one as last year, with a couple of minor changes. I think a major shakeup might really make a difference, and get us back in the postseason.
I've spent countless hours trying to develop different scenarios that would improve the team, yet are truly plausible. Any trade we make this year needs to bring in one big bat, and one very good prospect. We have to deal from our strength, pitching to acquire those type of players.
Following the above guidlines, I've come up with the following trade:
Oakland trades Barry Zito, Justin Duchscherer, Kirk Saarloos, Jay Payton, and Richie Robnett
Arizona trades Brandon Webb, Luis Gonzalez, Chad Tracy, and Connor Jackson
I'll breakdown the trade and show why this is a good deal for both teams. First from Arizona's standpoint:
- Acquiring Barry Zito gives the D-Backs a legitimate ace, something they just don't have. He is as consistent and reliable as you can get, and gives them a good R/L 1-2 combo with Javier Vazquez.
- Duke gives Arizona flexibility with their pitching staff, with the possibility of putting Duke in the rotation, in a setup role, or as closer. With the multitude of young arms available in the pen, Duke would make a very good 3-4 starter in the rotation.
- Captain Kirk was probably the best 5th starter in all of baseball this year. His presence would round out the D-Backs rotation, along with Brad Halsey. If a young arm steps up in Spring Training, Saarloos would make a perfect swingman/groundball specialist out of the pen.
- Jay Payton is included in the deal for a few reasons, including balancing salaries, his ability to play CF, and his ability to make up for Luis Gonzalez production. Payton would allow Shawn Green to slide to LF, with Carlos Quentin starting his possible decade long run in RF for Arizona.
- Richie Robnett is a solid prospect, who would give Arizona a future LF/CF, or at worst a very competent 4th outfielder. With the loss of young talent like Tracy and Jackson, AZ needs a young player in return.
- Brandon Webb can replace Zito in the rotation, without much dropoff. He is a sinkerball/groundball pitcher, who also strikes out around 8 hitters per 9 innings. With the A's defense behind him and a slightly more pitcher friendly park in Oakland, even with the league change, I think he could get his ERA into lower 3.00's. He would have ranked in or near the top ten in the AL in K's, ERA, and IP's. He's nearly as reliable as Z, but cheaper, with three years left before free agency.
- Luis Gonzalez comes over for salary reasons, he makes $11.5 million next year but then comes off the books. He could DH or play LF for this year, and if Ethier, Barton, or Jackson are ready by the deadline, Gonzo could be moved for prospects.
- Chad Tracy gives us another young, powerful hitter in the lineup, capable of playing 3B/1B/LF/RF/DH giving Macha flexibility(and the opportunity to give Chavy a day off without Ginter playing). Tracy is a hitter we should lock up to a 4 year deal, through his arbitration years. He could well be a valuable commodity after the 2007 season, with two years left on a very affordable deal.
- Connor Jackson is a well-known Beane favorite, and could be the DH for 5-6 years, starting in 2007. I see Arizona being more likely to deal Jackson than Quentin, because Jackson is a 1B at best, a DH at worst.
I'm interested in what everyone has to say about the above trade, good or bad.
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I actually kind of like it
Reasons they might not like it:
They are replacing and up and coming young pitcher who is already really good with sinker ball tendencies with an established but young Cy Young winner with fly ball tendencies in a home run ballpark:
True
There would definitely be a negotiating window to sign Z to an extension before the deal, I can't believe I didn't mention it. I think adding these guys gives Arizona a 2 to 1 shot at winning the NL West, and trying to make another World Series run.
It's a little different from the proposal I made in the Saarloos diary, but I think it's more balanced this way. What about you Ohad?
I agree about Webb
I believe that Webb can flourish in Oakland because of his sinkerball tendencies (amazing 4.34 gb/fb ratio. But there are some things that are wierd. His peripherals have really fluctuated. His last the year walk totals starting in 03 are 68,119, 59. The last three years his H/9 have increased and his K/9 decreased. OPBA has increased. Take a look
Anyways, I'll break it down in a different way in terms of value:
Lets say the D'Backs and Zito agree to a four year 48 million dollar extension. I'd say Sarloos (with his no HR, Ground ball tendencies) + Duke pretty much equals Brandon Webb, Webb probably a little more though.
Zito (extended) + Robnett + Payton = Luis Gonzalez, Chad Tracy and Connor Jackson.
As far as money, this is about even. As far as talent: Well, Gonzo is getting slightly worse every year, although he keeps his plate discipline, and is actually a better hitter away from the BOB. Tracy makes his numbers off righties, and Jackson still hasn't proven to hit Major League Pitching (no matter how good a prospect he is). Zito alone is worth Tracy and Gonzalez, while Jackson is worht more than Robnett and Payton. That evens out it.
Overall, it's possible the D'Backs might be giving up slightly more talent, but the trade would be made on needs, and the talent gap is minimal
Interesting look.
I think maybe the fact that he's thrown to 5 or 6 different catchers over the last three years might be part of the problem. Look at what pitching to Kendall every start did for Blanton and Haren. Don't get me wrong, Kendall's not the only reason these pitched well, but he helped. The rhythm and trust a pitcher and catcher can develop is an unquantifiable part of the game of baseball.
That said, it's not guaranteed that pitching to Kendall would make Webb become even better, but I think it's likely that working with a veteran who knows how to call a game consistently can only help. I think we'd get more seasons like 2003 or this year than we would Webb's 2004 numbers.
good poitns
Another interesting thing
Pros: He knows the AL, and knows the AL west. And he might want to stick it to Anaheim. He can be our DH. He walks a lot, he's righty, he has really good power, and he's still only 29.
Cons: Glaus' OPS was 951 at the BOB, 824 away from it. He is owed 33 million in the next three years.
Overall, i actually like the idea of a Glaus addition.
Another trade, providing that Arizona forks over 6 million a year for Glaus:
Zito, Duke, Sarloos, Robnett
For
Webb, Glaus, and Dustin Nippert
I want GLAUS!!! I want GLAUS!!! I want GLAUS!!!
Braden, Windsor, Jairo, Rouse, Bynum, Saarloos for Glaus and 6 mil!!!!
by saint @ Athletics Nation on Oct 20, 2005 3:09 PM PDT up reply actions
No
by Furious George on Oct 20, 2005 3:30 PM PDT up reply actions
well, we're not actually giving up
That would be a steal.
Especially if we can mask it as:
by saint @ Athletics Nation on Oct 20, 2005 4:31 PM PDT up reply actions
connor jackson
Whats the big deal about him anyway? Just not a big fan of trading for a young player just to DH him. How do you hes a Beane favorite.
Well to me
As far as him being a Beane fav, I've read it countless times here, something about BB wanting Jackson, Carlos Quentin, and Barton in the draft a couple of years ago, but we ended up with Sullivan and Snyder. Getting Jackson in a trade would add two of those three.
Connor Jackson
.354/.467/.553/1020 in AAA at the age of 23. He had an amazing 69 walks to just 32 K's in 333 at bats. He had 38 doubles and 66 runs.
nine-player deals are unheard of
I like there were two.
Houston trades Ken Caminiti, Andujar Cedeno, Steve Finley, Roberto Petagine, Brian Williams, and Sean Fesh
San Diego trades Derek Bell, Doug Brocail, Ricky Guiterrez, Pedro Martinez, Phil Plantier, and Craig Shipley
9 player trade between Houston and Detroit 12-10-96:
Houston trades Doug Brocail, Brian Hunter, Todd Jones, and Orlando Miller
Detroit trades Brad Ausmus, Jose Lima, Trever Miller, Daryle Ward, CJ Nitkowski
Good suggestion, but flawed
If I'm AZ I don't trade Webb for Zito straight up, regardless of signing Barry to an extension beforehand. That's a loss in my book.
Take away the supposed advantage Zito was bringing to the table, and a Duke/Saarloos/Robnett/Payton for Gonzo/Jackson/Tracy looks too light for D'Back tastes.
I think Az would laugh in Beane's face.
I think Tracy OR Jackson could be targets, farfetched as even that may be.
Webb ain't going anywhere, though. he IS their staff. (And a year of Zito-with a POSSIBILITY of resigning, Duke and Sarloos ain't enough to pry him from 'em)
Let's look at it in a different light
IP ERA K/9 K/BB BAA OPSA GB/FB
A: 201 3.87 5.8 2.12 .262 .718 1.97
B: 223 3.50 7.0 2.05 .228 .658 0.87
C: 216 3.33 6.4 2.27 .247 .669 2.25
D: 206 3.35 7.4 2.07 .244 .677 3.78
I'd rank them as follows: B, D, C, A. In my order that Zito, Webb, Hudson, and Mulder. Compare Zito and Webb closely. The K/BB are a push, the ERA would be even with league difference, Webb has a slight advantage at K/9, with Zito taking a good lead in BAA and OPSA, and Webb with the better GB/FB ratio.
Looking at these numbers, I'd say they're pretty close to even, with Zito a having a bit of a lead. That's without factoring in the fact that LHP are valued higher than RHP. There is only a one year difference in their ages, and while Zito is more expensive, he'd also make a splash with the media and fans.
Ohad pointed out early on that I forgot to include anything about an extension for Z. I admitted then and I will now, I don't think Arizona does this deal without locking Barry up for 3-4 years.
The problem I see with Webb is he's not number 1 starter material. I think he's great as a 2 or 3 type guy, but I don't see him as that top dog pitcher. Barry is that kind of guy, and Arizona desperately needs that. He and Vazquez would create a nice 1-2 L/R combo, and Barry's presence would allow Javier to be a 2, where there is a little less pressure.
For our side of things, Webb would slot nicely in the 2 spot behind Harden or the 3 behind Harden and Haren. I think he'd flourish much more in a slightly more pitcher friendly park, with a solid defense behind him. Pitching in the 2 or 3 spot also relieves some internal pressure Webb might put on himself to carry a staff.
When I broke down the trade I looked at it like this:
Zito and Payton are equal to Webb and Tracy. Any offensive difference between Tracy and Payton is made up for by Payton's D in CF for the D-Backs.
Duke, Saarloos, and Robnett are fairly equal to Gonzo and Jackson. Duke and Saarloos potential shore up your rotation, with two groundball pitchers who would work in the BOB. Robnett gives a young, talented CF prospect to eventually take over for Payton, or play LF if Upton is moved to CF.
Gonzo's skills are diminishing each year, but he's still somewhat productive. While he's not the hitter I really want in LF or DH, taking him on helps balance salaries. Jackson is a potential star with the bat, but best suited to DH, not play the field. The key with him is "potential". He could be Manny Ramirez lite, he could be Ben Grieve. You don't know what will happen, and with all the prospects AZ has, one that can't play in field becomes less valuable.
Maybe this sheds new light on the deal for you, grover, maybe it doesn't. Either way, I respect your opinion and I am interested in your thoughts on this.
Sorry it took so long to respond
You have some fundamental flaws in your statistical analysis. You first fail to acknowledge that Webb has only 3 years of MLB experience, and his K/BB ratio was severally affected by his control-poor 2004 season. In his three years Webb has posted K/BB rates of: 2.53 (2003) 1.38 (2004) 2.92 (2005). His 2004 season drastically drags down his K/BB rate, while Zito has shown over the last 6 seasons that his 2.05 ratio is fairly indicative of his performance level. While your math was correct, it did not accurately portray Webb's true performance level, thus turning an advantage vs Zito into a virtual tie.
Secondly, your BAA and OPSA scores are tied together. Webb has allowed the higher BAA, and it is that difference that makes up a large part of the gap between his OPSA and Zito's. You're basically punishing him twice for the one offence. BAA can be severally influenced by the quality of the defensive team behind a pitcher, and there can be little arguement that Zito has had the stronger defense behind him for the past three years. The BAA numbers could easily flip-flop if the two pitchers switched teams.
Statistically speaking, it is very hard to find an advantage towrds one pitcher or the other. If anything, Webb's superior K/9 numbers would lean the decision in his favor. But I think it more accurate to say that, given good health by both, the pitching performances of each pitcher will be a wash.
Then you have to look at the economics of the two pitchers. Webb is signed for 2 more years and his salary over those seasons COMBINED is still $2 million less than what Zito will make in 2006 alone. You have to figure that Zito would command a $10-11 million salary on the FA market and any extension Arizona would offer him would need to be in that ballpark. So for the next two seasons it would cost Arizona a minimum of $19 million with Zito to get the same production they could have had for $6 million if they held on to Webb. The Diamondbacks must have a couple guys on the patroll who do nothing but crunch numbers and THAT little discrepancy will show up on someone's report.
I think you've also misread the PR angle. You're proposing to trade the 2002 Cy Young winner for the best homegrown pitcher Arizona has ever produced and the D'Backs World Series hero. The big splash you're talking about would be from Arizona fans making D'Back management walk the plank.
You have the basis of an intriguing trade with Zito for Gonzo+Jackson. I think you're right to try and find some pitching to come back to Oakland but Webb is not the arm to go for. Try to repackage the deal to get Nippert or another arm instead, or find a 3-way to acquire the SP the A's would need to replace should Zito depart.
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