Gary Huckaby on Harden and the A's in '05

by Faust on Jan 29, 2005 10:30 AM PST

Gary Huckaby did a recent chat on BP that had a couple A's-related questions. Huckaby is a smart guy and I think you'll find his answers most interesting. He is identified as "a Consultant to the Oakland Athletics and Founder of Baseball Prospectus." I don't think his consultant role was public knowledge until recently; at least, I didn't learn of it until the recent Baseball America scouts vs. stats debate. I'm delighted he has a role with the A's and the bigger that role is the better, in my opinion. (Think of him as a very good free agent signing.)

Anyway, here are the two A's-related questions along with his answers:

Estoppel (Fresno): I was a bit shocked at the conservative PECOTA forecast for Harden. 148 innings and a 4.46 ERA seems outrageously pessimistic for a pitcher of his talent. Notwithstanding PECOTA's prediction, is this the year Harden takes over the mantle as staff ace for the A's?

Gary Huckabay: I certainly think so. Rich Harden's a tremendous pitcher playing in a good pitcher's park, with an absolutely tremendous defense playing behind him. I believe he'd take over the mantle of staff ace even if Hudson and Mulder were still here. I hope he'll be healthy all year, and if he is, I expect his ERA will be closer to 2.46 than 4.46.

Darius (Bellevue, WA): Can the A's really contend this year? Seattle's gotten Beltre and Sexson, and are better than they showed last year. Anaheim's turning into a West Coast version of the Yankees, and you all lost two great starting pitchers for minor leaguers. Are you just admitting that you can't compete, and are living just to make money and keep costs down?

Gary Huckabay: Hell yes, we can contend. Yes, Hudson and Mulder are gone, but there's a great deal of talent on this team, and it's not as if we didn't receive outstanding players in return. The A's organization is not filled with wallflowers. Losing sucks, and everyone in the organization shares that view. Baseball operations is focused on winning, this year and every year. Are there decisions to make and tradeoffs to evaluate? Sure.

I don't know how you can get by in this industry, or really any industry, if you don't physically feel that "crazed mule kick to the stomach" when you lose. I really don't. We absolutely can compete, we absolutely can win, and all we really want out of the season is two things -- (1) To make the postseason, and (2) To win the last game we play.

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harden

for cy young

by guy on Jan 29, 2005 10:33 AM PST 0 recs

harden for cy young

sounds like a trade the Giants would make if they had Harden, Cy's about the right age for them.

by vk on Jan 29, 2005 5:22 PM PST up 0 recs

LOL

"I DON'T KNOW WHAT WE'RE YELLING ABOUT!!!" -Brick Tamland, Anchorman

by secret ASian man on Jan 29, 2005 5:28 PM PST up 0 recs

hey secret ASian man.....

guess what?

There are exactly two weeks left until I meet Barry Zito. Actually, let's get int specific numbers. There are:

13 days 16 hours and 13 minutes until Zito

34 days 17 hours and 13 minutes until ST

64 days 18 hours and 18 minutes until 2005 Season

What can I say? I got bored. :)

My best friend- "I can't wait to go to A's games again! then i can be like...look at Crosby's buns... i mean... look at crosby run!"

by GreenNGoldGirl on Jan 29, 2005 5:48 PM PST up 0 recs

In 13 days 16 hours 13 minutes...

I will be at a rehearsal. I actually really wanted to go to Fan Fest, but sacrifices must be made for the sake of art.

"I DON'T KNOW WHAT WE'RE YELLING ABOUT!!!" -Brick Tamland, Anchorman

by secret ASian man on Jan 29, 2005 7:03 PM PST up 0 recs

Mmm, I will be in a rehearsal too...

Maybe we are in the same rehearsal! (Nah...what would be the chance of that? :-))

What a pitch!

by monteverdi on Jan 29, 2005 9:10 PM PST up 0 recs

Really

What city? If it's the same city, then it's probably the same rehearsal, or maybe not.

"I DON'T KNOW WHAT WE'RE YELLING ABOUT!!!" -Brick Tamland, Anchorman

by secret ASian man on Jan 29, 2005 9:21 PM PST up 0 recs

oh ya baby.....

....harden, that good canadian boy, is gona kick some ass in the AL next yr!

the new bulldog cometh.

My wife says i'm "obsessed" with AN and colleagues worry i'm "fixated". I say "ya, OK.....so?" Wish me luck, therapy starts Monday.

by bigelephant on Jan 29, 2005 10:42 AM PST 0 recs

Write it down..

ERA of 2.46!!!!

Yes difinitely Cy Young type stat. But Rich will have to avoid (or at least limit) those times where he is lights out for about 4 or 5 innings, and then completely loses his concentration in the 5th or 6th inning and can't get a guy out. To me, it appears as if it is a loss of concentration and not losing his "stuff", or getting tired. But when he can focus on the catcher's mitt, and get rid of distractions, he is Cy Young material.

by robertmelvin on Jan 29, 2005 10:43 AM PST 0 recs

u nailed it robertmelvin

My wife says i'm "obsessed" with AN and colleagues worry i'm "fixated". I say "ya, OK.....so?" Wish me luck, therapy starts Monday.

by bigelephant on Jan 29, 2005 10:45 AM PST up 0 recs

this year

by the end of last year, it seemed like he was able to go pretty deep into games. hopefully the trend will continue for this year...

by sec119 on Jan 29, 2005 11:48 AM PST up 0 recs

Consistency

It certainly seemed to me that Harden had gotten over the "one-bad inning" syndrome by August and September. Mow if only Zito can do it, too...

In my opinion, 2.46 is low, but I could definitely see Harden posting an ERA in the low 3's, and winning 17-18 games. Just think, in 2006 he'll be even better.

by jmoney on Jan 29, 2005 1:02 PM PST up 0 recs

Right on,...

Even those times where Harden has that one big inning, rhgt before they pull him, he ca still throw a fastball at 97 MPH.

It's all in his head.

"I DON'T KNOW WHAT WE'RE YELLING ABOUT!!!" -Brick Tamland, Anchorman

by secret ASian man on Jan 29, 2005 2:19 PM PST up 0 recs

The difference between 2.46 and 3.46,

given that the "other 30 starts" are Cy Young caliber, can be whether you have 1-2 starts or 4-5 starts that flame out (2.2IP, 6ER). More than the issue of tiring or losing focus in the 6th/7th inning, I think the issue is one of consistency. I think we all agree Harden will have excellent numbers over most of his starts; the question is whether he'll have several flameouts (like most talented young pitchers do) or will, like Hudson, only have a couple the whole year. In other words, a 2.50 ERA doesn't offer room for very many "outliers."

Nico

by Nico on Jan 29, 2005 12:07 PM PST 0 recs

An ERA between 3.46 and 2.46 would be incredible

I would expect 20 wins from him, for sure, with the upgraded offense and an ERA below 3.46.

by saint on Jan 29, 2005 1:38 PM PST 0 recs

Big Season Potential

Harden and Zito both have the potential for big seasons. When you look at the uncertainty around this team, it's almost completely about the 3-5 starters. When Harden and Zito are on the mound, they're going to be backed by an even better defense, a better offense, and a tremendously better bullpen. That's a recipe for a couple 20+ win seasons.

I realize pitching is more than just wins (actually, I think there's a strong arguement to be made that pitching ability has almost nothing to do with wins, but that's another story) but we already know that these guys can pitch well, all the remains are the aspects of the game that are not directly under their control - run support, defense, and a bullpen that can protect a lead. The A's are going to have all 3 of those components this year.

On the days when these 2 guys pitch, the A's are going to be as good as anyone and much, much better than most.

Jonathon

"...every year there are hundreds of great books published that I won't have time to read. And once I'm dead, the situation gets even worse" - Rob Neyer

by JLeverenz on Jan 29, 2005 3:01 PM PST 0 recs

I Agree

Harden will continue to mature and improve, and Zito will more likely than not put up #s similar to his career average than '04. The big unknown is 3-5; if those guys can go 5-6 innings with 3-4 runs, the revamped pen will clean-up nicely and we'll have a hellava year.

by silas on Jan 29, 2005 4:57 PM PST up 0 recs

haren

i'm beginning to think that haren will also show very well next year. shandler in his new '05 "baseball forcaster" uses a measurement tool that indicates pure stuff. gammons makes mention of this. i'm not familiar with the tool shandler uses but haren apparently scores in some pretty elite company. so, as a #3 starter plus switching leagues, he'ii probably hold up nicely.

My wife says i'm "obsessed" with AN and colleagues worry i'm "fixated". I say "ya, OK.....so?" Wish me luck, therapy starts Monday.

by bigelephant on Jan 29, 2005 4:10 PM PST 0 recs

M's fans

Man these M's fans are seriously deluding themselves. It takes more than two players to go from a 99-loss team to a contender. The same way it takes more than the loss of 2 players to turn a contender into a loser. Here's to our boys finishing ahead of the M's one more year.

by OaktownTribesman on Jan 29, 2005 5:28 PM PST 0 recs

Their pitching still sucks

They might win 70 games this season instead of going 63-99 like last year, but I don't see how they still won't be a last place team. Their pitching will still suck and be a year older.

"The sun don't shine on the same dog's ass all the time." -Catfish Hunter

by kaweahkaweah on Jan 29, 2005 10:27 PM PST up 0 recs

I'm a little surprised

that every comment so far has been about the Harden question (though it is good to see him validate the view many of us have, and all of us would like to have, about Harden). I also really enjoyed his very emphatic answer response to the question from the Seattle fan.

"The A's organization is not filled with wallflowers." That's for sure.

by Faust on Jan 29, 2005 5:32 PM PST 0 recs