Meeting Michael Lewis
[EDITOR'S NOTE] This is an excellent update from AN reader bigthree17. I want to thank bigthree17 for this report, and that this reminds me that it's probably time for me to check back in with Mr. Lewis on Underdogs. - Blez
Today I got to meet and spend some time with Michael Lewis. He was the keynote speaker at a seminar my old law firm organized and invited me to. I sat with him at lunch, and then hung out with him after the seminar for about an hour. He is a great guy.
Keep in mind that there were 5-6 of us at the table with him, so I wasn't able to ask every question I wanted, and those I did were often cut off by other people. Anyway, here are a few highlights from our conversation:
- Michael has become great friends with Billy since the book was published; not as much during the writing of it. They speak on an almost daily basis now.
- The sale is pretty much a done deal. Billy is currently negotiating with the new ownership group to stay. Among his chief concerns is that he wants complete autonomy of baseball decisions; this is more important to him than the money. Michael believes the new ownership group will do what it has to to keep Billy.
- Now that most teams have caught onto OPS, a lot of people think defense is the next stage of "Moneyball". That's only part of it: the A's and Red Sox, for example, have already developed their theories about defense. They've already moved on and are now analyzing inefficiencies elsewhere.
- Chavez was signed long-term because he showed constant and continued improvement, and the A's were able to buy out his prime years at a discount, because his defense was still undervalued. They weren't as sure about Miggy, for several reasons.
- He loves the trades Billy made this summer. When I asked him if he thought it would have been a better route to trade some of our prospects over the last couple of years for established players (with other teams paying the freight) to make a real run with the Big Three, and then either take the picks when those guys become free agents or trade them in their walk years, he said no. The reason being is that wins are the most important thing for the health of the franchise, and this franchise could not afford to deal with the 3-4 years of rebuilding that would have necessitated.
- Daric Barton is viewed as the prime piece in the deals.
- The A's actually used to purposely use their 2nd or 3rd best reliever as the closer, let him rack up a ton of saves, raise his market value, then deal him because "saves" were so overvalued. I'm sure this is what they hoped to do with Rhodes, but he couldn't hold up his end of the bargain.
- The average casual fan that visits certain blog fan sites with even a modicum of intelligence has a better grasp of statistical analysis than most sportswriters. This goes along with what Billy said in the interview Blez just posted.
- There was a lot of other stuff we talked about, I just can't remember it all. Frankly, I wish I could be more specific and tell you more, but there was a lot we discussed that I probably shouldn't repeat.
Anyway, it's nothing compared to Blez' interview, but just thought I'd share with you guys.
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49 comments
Comments
thanks for the info
by xbhaskarx on Jan 26, 2005 9:03 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
awesome
by GreenNGoldGirl on Jan 26, 2005 9:05 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Swish
by bigthree17 on Jan 26, 2005 9:17 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
jeremy brown
by xbhaskarx on Jan 26, 2005 9:06 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Jeremy Brown
by bigthree17 on Jan 26, 2005 9:08 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
cool
Please tell ML to hurry up with his next book!
by nickolai on Jan 26, 2005 9:16 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
okay.
Dear Mr. Wolff,
Give BB everthing he wants.
Or I will cry like a baby.
:)
by Sharon on Jan 26, 2005 9:17 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Inflating Market Value
by silas on Jan 26, 2005 9:52 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Thanks Bigthree17
by Bobblehead on Jan 26, 2005 10:06 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
the speech
by bigthree17 on Jan 26, 2005 10:17 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
movie
by gojohn10 on Jan 26, 2005 10:08 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Tabitha Soren
by Colorado Fan on Jan 27, 2005 8:29 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Tabitha Soren
TABITHA SOREN: Tell me what happened today. I heard that you signed a record contract.
WESLEY WILLIS: I signed a record contract at least 20 minutes ago.
Lewis gave us Moneyball, Soren gave me that interview, can't ask for much more from one couple
by Cutthemullet on Jan 27, 2005 11:29 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
really nice report
by Apricot on Jan 26, 2005 10:26 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
best relievers
However, who exactly was the A's REAL no. 1 reliever in the days of Izzy/Koch/Foulke ??
Anyway starting from 1999
1999 Taylor was primary closer but Doug Jones was better and pitched more innings, Taylor is flipped for Izzy and Long.
2000 Izzy was primary closer but Jeff Tam and Jim Mecir (acquired mid season) were better and used more often (Mecir once acquired), Doug Jones was also as good as Izzy.
2001 Izzy was primary closer, and had his best year. They had Tam, Magnante, Mecir and saw Bradford eased into his first use and was incredibly effective. (Their whole bullpen was great in 2001... man that was a good team). Izzy leaves and becomes draft picks.
2002 Koch was the closer but Bradford was the best reliever. The rest of the pen starting falling off a cliff, ergo Beane picks up Rincon mid-season (and Rincon was fantastic over those last two monhs).
2003 Koch flipped for Foulke, Foulke is great of course though Bradford shows about as well in the advanced metrics. Rincon also very good, rest of pen is fungible. Foulke proves to be the exception to the rule of don't pay retail for "saves"/"proven closers" and Beane tries to resign him. Foulke goes to Boston leaving draft picks to the A's.
2004 Rhodes signed at mid-range price to become closer, it doesn't work. Duchscherer though is great and kept in a role where he can stay cheap for years to come. You all know the story of the pen last year.
by jakarta on Jan 26, 2005 11:06 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
good overview
So I get the general idea (pump up the saves to inflate a reliever's value... it has been clear for a while), but wasn't sure if they actually valued particular relievers more or simply wanted a strong bullpen with one guy artificially denoted the closer.
It's funny to remember how good Mecir was when he was on. He definitely took a nosedive this year, but still...
by Apricot on Jan 27, 2005 8:04 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I disagree
A dominant closer is critical to success. Saves are only overvalued when the pitcher is not dominant (Koch, Taylor). The key is finding a guy who can become a dominant closer but hasn't put up the big #s yet (Izzy, Foulke). When Rhodes flamed out, Dotel became necessary. Hopefully Octo can hold us over until Street and/or Garcia.
by silas on Jan 27, 2005 11:07 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Think outside the box
by Furious George on Jan 27, 2005 12:32 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
A 3-Run Lead
by silas on Jan 27, 2005 2:40 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
when BB had a clearcut closer
by redclay22 on Jan 27, 2005 8:17 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
jakarta is smack on right
anyway, nice work bigthree17. thanks.
by bigelephant on Jan 28, 2005 7:53 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
thanks for this
Of course i agree that it is amazing how there are hundreds of thousands of fans out there who understand better how to construct a team and measure value than the punditocracy of fish hacks (print), stuffed suits (TV), and blowhards (radio).
And of course Lewis is in the most unique position to look at things from this point of view, having already been immersed in the world of professional securites analysts.
Did you get a sense of how frequently he checks in with AN?
by jakarta on Jan 26, 2005 10:39 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Lewis and AN
He is just a huge A's fan now. I mean, he knows every player in the minors, who almost got dealt for who, etc. It's astounding.
by bigthree17 on Jan 27, 2005 9:46 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
fish hacks?
by vk on Jan 27, 2005 4:38 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Nice
Jonathon
by JLeverenz on Jan 27, 2005 6:18 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
Complete Autonomy
by OaktownTribesman on Jan 27, 2005 6:51 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
So Status Quo basically
Jonathon
by JLeverenz on Jan 27, 2005 7:56 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
That's pretty much right
Another little tidbit: John Henry, owner of the Sox, is a finance guy, and bought into statistical analysis really early on. However, when he owned the Marlins, no one every listened to him. So the only way he could implement his theories was to go on the net and get a fantasy baseball team. So he dominated his fantasy league, but his team sucked because they were too stubborn. Then he bought the Red Sox, hired Theo, and they win the World Series.
by bigthree17 on Jan 27, 2005 9:37 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
What would it take
by ArakSOT on Jan 27, 2005 7:11 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
Yeah?
by ohad on Jan 27, 2005 7:27 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I wish I could
by bigthree17 on Jan 27, 2005 9:40 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Thanks for starting this thread
by kaweahkaweah on Jan 27, 2005 7:51 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
Bigthree17, You Earned a ...
Just curious, did Michael Lewis make any comments about the future of the team in the Bay Area?
by Gerard on Jan 27, 2005 8:29 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
Future
by bigthree17 on Jan 27, 2005 9:42 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Excellent job, B317
by McFood on Jan 27, 2005 8:41 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
good stuff bigthree17
by Bleed Green on Jan 27, 2005 9:21 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
THANKS, BIGTHREE!! =)
this was one of the best news i've heard all year!!
by gotgreen on Jan 27, 2005 9:47 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
More thanks!
by LongTimeFan on Jan 27, 2005 10:22 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
saves
To me the best tidbit was the idea of letting a pitcher rack up saves to inflate his value. Foulke seems like the opposite -- trading for a player who was undervalued by his team and putting him in the closer role. I remember drafting Foulke in a late round of my fantasy league. Someone in the room, a knowledgable baseball fan, asks "who is Keith Foulke?" I just smiled and said "the guy who's going to lead the AL in saves this year".
by prospero on Jan 27, 2005 11:21 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
No problem, guys
This was definitely a highlight of my A's fandom, right up there with meeting Billy at an A's game in Anaheim in September 2003 (he was totally cool to me - signed a couple of balls and spoke to me for a few minutes). The only downer on that evening was Foulke was unavailable, and Mecir gave up a walk-off 3-run bomb to Spiezio. Billy looked pissed as he walked up the aisle past me.
by bigthree17 on Jan 27, 2005 11:29 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
AN strikes again!!!
by robertmelvin on Jan 27, 2005 11:33 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
Nice work Bigs
by grover on Jan 27, 2005 2:54 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
T-Minus
by devo on Jan 27, 2005 2:58 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
And.... as of 7:21 PM
36 days 15 hours and 39 minutes until Spring Training
66 Days 16 hours and 44 minutes until A's @ Orioles
:) I particularly like the first one. Just a bit.
by GreenNGoldGirl on Jan 27, 2005 7:21 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah!
by batgirl on Jan 27, 2005 3:37 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
sorry
by SwishMix on Jan 27, 2005 7:46 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

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