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Meeting Michael Lewis

[EDITOR'S NOTE] This is an excellent update from AN reader bigthree17. I want to thank bigthree17 for this report, and that this reminds me that it's probably time for me to check back in with Mr. Lewis on Underdogs. - Blez

Today I got to meet and spend some time with Michael Lewis.  He was the keynote speaker at a seminar my old law firm organized and invited me to.  I sat with him at lunch, and then hung out with him after the seminar for about an hour.  He is a great guy.

Keep in mind that there were 5-6 of us at the table with him, so I wasn't able to ask every question I wanted, and those I did were often cut off by other people. Anyway, here are a few highlights from our conversation:

  • Michael has become great friends with Billy since the book was published; not as much during the writing of it. They speak on an almost daily basis now.
  • The sale is pretty much a done deal. Billy is currently negotiating with the new ownership group to stay. Among his chief concerns is that he wants complete autonomy of baseball decisions; this is more important to him than the money. Michael believes the new ownership group will do what it has to to keep Billy.
  • Now that most teams have caught onto OPS, a lot of people think defense is the next stage of "Moneyball". That's only part of it: the A's and Red Sox, for example, have already developed their theories about defense. They've already moved on and are now analyzing inefficiencies elsewhere.
  • Chavez was signed long-term because he showed constant and continued improvement, and the A's were able to buy out his prime years at a discount, because his defense was still undervalued.  They weren't as sure about Miggy, for several reasons.  
  • He loves the trades Billy made this summer. When I asked him if he thought it would have been a better route to trade some of our prospects over the last couple of years for established players (with other teams paying the freight) to make a real run with the Big Three, and then either take the picks when those guys become free agents or trade them in their walk years, he said no. The reason being is that wins are the most important thing for the health of the franchise, and this franchise could not afford to deal with the 3-4 years of rebuilding that would have necessitated.
  • Daric Barton is viewed as the prime piece in the deals.
  • The A's actually used to purposely use their 2nd or 3rd best reliever as the closer, let him rack up a ton of saves, raise his market value, then deal him because "saves" were so overvalued.  I'm sure this is what they hoped to do with Rhodes, but he couldn't hold up his end of the bargain.
  • The average casual fan that visits certain blog fan sites with even a modicum of intelligence has a better grasp of statistical analysis than most sportswriters.  This goes along with what Billy said in the interview Blez just posted.
  • There was a lot of other stuff we talked about, I just can't remember it all. Frankly, I wish I could be more specific and tell you more, but there was a lot we discussed that I probably shouldn't repeat.

Anyway, it's nothing compared to Blez' interview, but just thought I'd share with you guys.

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thanks for the info
LW: you better give beane what he wants!

by xbhaskarx on Jan 26, 2005 9:03 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

awesome
that's really cool. Did you ask any questions about Swisher?? :)
My best friend- "I can't wait to go to A's games again! then i can be like...look at Crosby's buns... i mean... look at crosby run!"

by GreenNGoldGirl on Jan 26, 2005 9:05 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

Swish
He came up when we talked about his follow-up book that discusses the players in the 2002 draft.  I figure Swisher and Blanton will be key figures in that book, partially because they'll be easily accessible.

by bigthree17 on Jan 26, 2005 9:17 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

jeremy brown
anything on jeremy brown and his injuries/struggles?

by xbhaskarx on Jan 26, 2005 9:06 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

Jeremy Brown
Yeah, as a matter of fact that came up.  When I brought up that Jeremy Brown seems to be underperforming, he said the A's put him on the 40-man roster because they were convinced several organizations would have been interested enough to pluck him during the Rule 5 draft.  They still think he will be a solid major-leaguer one day.  As for last year, he was both injured and had some issues in his personal life (not at liberty to divulge) that adversely affected his performance.

by bigthree17 on Jan 26, 2005 9:08 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

cool
Thanks for this, there are some nice little nuggets in there.

Please tell ML to hurry up with his next book!

by nickolai on Jan 26, 2005 9:16 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

okay.
The sale is pretty much a done deal. Billy is currently negotiating with the new ownership group to stay. Among his chief concerns is that he wants complete autonomy of baseball decisions; this is more important to him than the money. Michael believes the new ownership group will do what it has to to keep Billy.

Dear Mr. Wolff,

     Give BB everthing he wants.

     Or I will cry like a baby.

:)

by Sharon on Jan 26, 2005 9:17 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

what the hell?!
everYthing

Blegh.

by Sharon on Jan 26, 2005 9:18 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Dude,
nice work!

by BootyBall05 on Jan 26, 2005 9:19 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

Inflating Market Value
That's very interesting. Now if BB can get Byrnes to walk 100 times this year, we can get more than just Cameron in return.

by silas on Jan 26, 2005 9:52 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

Thanks Bigthree17
Just curious -- what was the gist of his speech?

by Bobblehead on Jan 26, 2005 10:06 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

the speech
The speech was just about Moneyball (that's what everyone wanted to hear about, especially since I live in L.A. and everyone wants to know more about DePo) and the effect of Moneyball on corporate America, e.g., how certain companies are putting greater emphasis on statstical analysis to take advantage of market inefficiencies.  Not really a legal discussion - the rest of the seminar covered that.

by bigthree17 on Jan 26, 2005 10:17 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

movie
any talk about the moneyball movie? Also, what's tabitha soren up to these days?
I'm the guy with the Carney Lansford jersey

by gojohn10 on Jan 26, 2005 10:08 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

Tabitha Soren
What has she been up to?   Maybe she's trying to find Bin Laden?
Let's Go Oak-Land!

by Colorado Fan on Jan 27, 2005 8:29 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Tabitha Soren
goin' back to 1996 for this classic interview opener:

TABITHA SOREN: Tell me what happened today. I heard that you signed a record contract.

WESLEY WILLIS: I signed a record contract at least 20 minutes ago.

Lewis gave us Moneyball, Soren gave me that interview, can't ask for much more from one couple

"When I went to church that same Sunday, I picked up a 2x4. I went up to the pulpit and clubbed the preacher in the head..."--Wesley Willis

by Cutthemullet on Jan 27, 2005 11:29 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

really nice report
thanks! I liked the bit about pumping up the 'Saves' stat. However, who exactly was the A's REAL no. 1 reliever in the days of Izzy/Koch/Foulke ??

by Apricot on Jan 26, 2005 10:26 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

best relievers
The pumping up saves and value thing has been pretty evident for a while now.  I really starting going nuts for Beane when he flipped Taylor.

However, who exactly was the A's REAL no. 1 reliever in the days of Izzy/Koch/Foulke ??

Anyway starting from 1999

1999 Taylor was primary closer but Doug Jones was better and pitched more innings, Taylor is flipped for Izzy and Long.

2000 Izzy was primary closer but Jeff Tam and Jim Mecir (acquired mid season) were better and used more often (Mecir once acquired), Doug Jones was also as good as Izzy.

2001 Izzy was primary closer, and had his best year.  They had Tam, Magnante, Mecir and saw Bradford eased into his first use and was incredibly effective.  (Their whole bullpen was great in 2001... man that was a good team). Izzy leaves and becomes draft picks.

2002 Koch was the closer but Bradford was the best reliever.  The rest of the pen starting falling off a cliff, ergo Beane picks up Rincon mid-season (and Rincon was fantastic over those last two monhs).

2003 Koch flipped for Foulke, Foulke is great of course though Bradford shows about as well in the advanced metrics.  Rincon also very good, rest of pen is fungible.  Foulke proves to be the exception to the rule of don't pay retail for "saves"/"proven closers" and Beane tries to resign him.  Foulke goes to Boston leaving draft picks to the A's.

2004 Rhodes signed at mid-range price to become closer, it doesn't work.  Duchscherer though is great and kept in a role where he can stay cheap for years to come.  You all know the story of the pen last year.

by jakarta on Jan 26, 2005 11:06 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

good overview
I agree with your assessments. I was confused by the idea that there was a real #1, because Bradford and Rincon are probably equivalent to Koch unless used in platoons. Foulke was a genuine #1.

So I get the general idea (pump up the saves to inflate a reliever's value... it has been clear for a while), but wasn't sure if they actually valued particular relievers more or simply wanted a strong bullpen with one guy artificially denoted the closer.

It's funny to remember how good Mecir was when he was on. He definitely took a nosedive this year, but still...

by Apricot on Jan 27, 2005 8:04 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

I disagree
You're saying that the A's used Izzy and Koch, in the heat of the '01 and '02 playoff races, just to pump up their save #s? And if BB felt these two were not his top closers, increasing their trade value was more important than winning the division or securing the wildcard?

A dominant closer is critical to success. Saves are only overvalued when the pitcher is not dominant (Koch, Taylor). The key is finding a guy who can become a dominant closer but hasn't put up the big #s yet (Izzy, Foulke). When Rhodes flamed out, Dotel became necessary. Hopefully Octo can hold us over until Street and/or Garcia.

by silas on Jan 27, 2005 11:07 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Think outside the box
You're not thinking outside the box when you say a dominant closer is critical.  Almost any pitcher in baseball can finish a game with a 3 run lead, but since most people in baseball think a closer is radically different from any other reliever they are willing to overpay for an average relief pitcher.  Taylor, Izzy, Koch were all adequate pitchers and that's why it was safe to put them in at closer and at the same time boost their values.

by Furious George on Jan 27, 2005 12:32 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

A 3-Run Lead
is one thing, but a 1-run lead in the midst of a playoff run demands a guy who can slam the door. With Foulke last year, we win the division - that's why Beane did everything he could to sign him, and that's why he went out and got Dotel.

by silas on Jan 27, 2005 2:40 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

when BB had a clearcut closer
he tried what he could to retain him (foulke).  the disparity between koch or izzy to what BB used in other relief roles was not that apparant, thus giving him the opportunity to boost # of saves to up the value on mediocre "closers".  
"You can see the weakness of a man right through his iris." - RZA

by redclay22 on Jan 27, 2005 8:17 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

jakarta is smack on right
even in moneyball beane TELLS howe bradford is the best pitcher in the pen and to use him in the 7-8 inning.

anyway, nice work bigthree17. thanks.

My wife says i'm "obsessed" with AN and colleagues worry i'm "fixated". I say "ya, OK.....so?" Wish me luck, therapy starts Monday.

by bigelephant on Jan 28, 2005 7:53 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

thanks for this
I still like Lewis's first book the best, though all his books are interesting... the one about the '96 campaign sure got dated quick though.

Of course i agree that it is amazing how there are hundreds of thousands of fans out there who understand better how to construct a team and measure value than the punditocracy of fish hacks (print), stuffed suits (TV), and blowhards (radio).  

And of course Lewis is in the most unique position to look at things from this point of view, having already been immersed in the world of professional securites analysts.

Did you get a sense of how frequently he checks in with AN?

 

by jakarta on Jan 26, 2005 10:39 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

Lewis and AN
My feeling is that he doesn't read AN all the time, but does check in here and there, especially since Blez' interview.  He truly appreciates the fact that more "casual" fans understand the tenets of Moneyball thanks to blogs like this than most idiot sportswriters.  He also holds beat writers in greater esteem than columnists.

He is just a huge A's fan now.  I mean, he knows every player in the minors, who almost got dealt for who, etc.  It's astounding.  

by bigthree17 on Jan 27, 2005 9:46 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

fish hacks?
 I'm going to stick up for Slusser here. She seems to get it pretty well, but a sportswriter who understands statistics is like an NHL player who can skate -- it's nice, but it's not the game (hockey= body checks and slapshots; newspaper writing= scoops and writing style.)

by vk on Jan 27, 2005 4:38 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Nice
Thanks for the highlights.  One question though, any thoughts on what BB means by "complete autonomy" in making baseball decisions?  I was under the impression (from Moneyball anyway) that he was free to make any deal he liked as long as he could make the money work, and somehow I doubt "complete autonomy" means being able to spend what he wants.

Jonathon

"...every year there are hundreds of great books published that I won't have time to read. And once I'm dead, the situation gets even worse" - Rob Neyer

by JLeverenz on Jan 27, 2005 6:18 AM PST reply actions   0 recs

Complete Autonomy
It means Billy wants to be able to do what he's doing now. He doesn't want a Peter Angelos peering over his shoulder come draft time telling him who he should pick. He doesn't want a George Steinbrenner personally recruiting FA's without consulting him. Beane will take Wolff's money, but he better not try to tell Billy which players are good and which aren't.

by OaktownTribesman on Jan 27, 2005 6:51 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

So Status Quo basically
That makes sense.  It didn't occur to me really that LW would be a different type of owner from S&H in regards to being "hands-off", but I it makes sense for BB to keep the status quo.

Jonathon

"...every year there are hundreds of great books published that I won't have time to read. And once I'm dead, the situation gets even worse" - Rob Neyer

by JLeverenz on Jan 27, 2005 7:56 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

That's pretty much right
My impression was that both Schott and Frank McCourt give Billy and DePo, respectively, a budget, and that's about it.  They are free to operate however they want, as long as it is within those financial constraints.  I think Billy just wants to make sure he can continue to operate freely.

Another little tidbit: John Henry, owner of the Sox, is a finance guy, and bought into statistical analysis really early on.  However, when he owned the Marlins, no one every listened to him.  So the only way he could implement his theories was to go on the net and get a fantasy baseball team.  So he dominated his fantasy league, but his team sucked because they were too stubborn.  Then he bought the Red Sox, hired Theo, and they win the World Series.

by bigthree17 on Jan 27, 2005 9:37 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

What would it take
to get you to divulge some of that stuff you think you probably shouldn't repeat? Inquiring minds want to know...
The triple of Jeremy Brown's imagination was, in reality, a home run.

by ArakSOT on Jan 27, 2005 7:11 AM PST reply actions   0 recs

Yeah?
I was pretty curious about that too.
Peace up, A-Town Down (A town being Albany California, not Atlanta)

by ohad on Jan 27, 2005 7:27 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

I wish I could
But seeing how Billy acknowledges frequenting this site, and Michael is no stranger to it, I feel like there was some stuff discussed that was only meant for conversation among friends (one of the partners at my old firm and Michael were great college buddies), not for mass consumption.  I'm just erring on the side of caution, and I don't want to step on any toes, so I just posted more of the innocuous stuff.  Sorry.

by bigthree17 on Jan 27, 2005 9:40 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Thanks for starting this thread
It sounds like you had a very interesting conversation.  I learned a lot just reading what you posted.
"The sun don't shine on the same dog's ass all the time." -Catfish Hunter

by kaweahkaweah on Jan 27, 2005 7:51 AM PST reply actions   0 recs

Bigthree17, You Earned a ...
Cy Young for sharing this with us thankyou. One of the few things I've learned in life is that successful people don't mind sharing how they got to be successful. With what we have learned from BB over the last couple of years on this site alone will give Ohad enough impetus to take the title of "geek" away from Theo Epstein in another 10 years or so (that's a backhanded compliment).
   Just curious, did Michael Lewis make any comments about the future of the team in the Bay Area?

by Gerard on Jan 27, 2005 8:29 AM PST reply actions   0 recs

Future
Aaargh!!  I know!  I actually started to ask that question as a follow up to my "is Billy going to stay with the new ownership" question, but I got cut off by someone else, and I forgot to ask again later.  

by bigthree17 on Jan 27, 2005 9:42 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Excellent job, B317
Thanks for sharing.
"If you have to scream, you're not doing it right." - Billy Martin

by McFood on Jan 27, 2005 8:41 AM PST reply actions   0 recs

good stuff bigthree17
... this is what a blog is all about!

by Bleed Green on Jan 27, 2005 9:21 AM PST reply actions   0 recs

THANKS, BIGTHREE!! =)
"The sale is pretty much a done deal. Billy is currently negotiating with the new ownership group to stay. Among his chief concerns is that he wants complete autonomy of baseball decisions; this is more important to him than the money. Michael believes the new ownership group will do what it has to to keep Billy."

this was one of the best news i've heard all year!!

by gotgreen on Jan 27, 2005 9:47 AM PST reply actions   0 recs

More thanks!
Appreciate your taking the time and effort to post this. Hope Wolff understands how vital BB is to our continuing success and gives him complete autonomy and anything else he wants! And,no matter how curious we are, there is always a time and place for discretion. You did great! Thanks again.

by LongTimeFan on Jan 27, 2005 10:22 AM PST reply actions   0 recs

saves
Thanks so much; this is really interesting stuff.  

To me the best tidbit was the idea of letting a pitcher rack up saves to inflate his value.  Foulke seems like the opposite -- trading for a player who was undervalued by his team and putting him in the closer role.  I remember drafting Foulke in a late round of my fantasy league.  Someone in the room, a knowledgable baseball fan, asks "who is Keith Foulke?"  I just smiled and said "the guy who's going to lead the AL in saves this year".

by prospero on Jan 27, 2005 11:21 AM PST reply actions   0 recs

No problem, guys
I'm just glad you guys liked it, and thanks for understanding about the stuff I couldn't post.  

This was definitely a highlight of my A's fandom, right up there with meeting Billy at an A's game in Anaheim in September 2003 (he was totally cool to me - signed a couple of balls and spoke to me for a few minutes).  The only downer on that evening was Foulke was unavailable, and Mecir gave up a walk-off 3-run bomb to Spiezio.  Billy looked pissed as he walked up the aisle past me.

by bigthree17 on Jan 27, 2005 11:29 AM PST reply actions   0 recs

AN strikes again!!!
Many thanks to Bigthree 17.  We can't be a fly on the wall listening to Billy's every word, but at least we can be an uninvited sitter at lunch at a law seminar, and get some current insights as to what's up with the A's.

by robertmelvin on Jan 27, 2005 11:33 AM PST reply actions   0 recs

Nice work Bigs
It's too long till Spring Training and every morsel of A's info helps.

by grover on Jan 27, 2005 2:54 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

T-Minus
22 days, 20 hours, 5 minutes, 15 seconds until Pitchers and Catchers Day!
Relax alright don't try to strike everyone out. Strikeouts are boring besides that they're fascist. Throw some ground balls it's more democratic.

by devo on Jan 27, 2005 2:58 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

And.... as of 7:21 PM
15 days 14 hours and 39 minutes until I meet Barry Zito

36 days 15 hours and 39 minutes until Spring Training

66 Days 16 hours and 44 minutes until A's @ Orioles

:) I particularly like the first one. Just a bit.

My best friend- "I can't wait to go to A's games again! then i can be like...look at Crosby's buns... i mean... look at crosby run!"

by GreenNGoldGirl on Jan 27, 2005 7:21 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Yeah!
Thanks for taking the time to write all of that up.  Very good read.  Sounds like you really took advantage of the wonderful opportunity to be in that situation.  Nice job on getting in some great questions and answers on the fly.  Plus I like your class in only divulging certain things (though I'm DYING to know what else was said!)  

by batgirl on Jan 27, 2005 3:37 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

sorry
I think Michael Lewis is the man, but don't hang on to his every word. A while ago, I saw him speak, and he said that Zito would be the one traded. We all know how that worked out. Maybe Billy's plan back then was to trade Zito, or maybe Lewis didnt want to admit that he didnt know. I've seen him speak a lot, and he always gives very good answers to questions, but I've also never heard him say that he didnt know the answer.

by SwishMix on Jan 27, 2005 7:46 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

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