A Holiday Miracle

by Tyler Bleszinski on Dec 23, 2004 10:53 AM PST in News

Masaryk posted this article in his diary, but in my opinion, it's a miracle I had to move to the front page and share with everyone. Someone in the mainstream gets what Billy Beane is trying to do...Hark the Herald Angels Sing.

And who could've guessed it's Skip Bayless, of all people?

It truly is a Christmas, Hanukkah, Kwanzaa, Christmukah and Festivus miracle!

The only thing that was missing from Bayless's article was he actually saying, "In Billy I Trust."

God Bless Us, Everyone.

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Comments

Hmm.

Skip Bayless supporting the trades gives me even more reason to doubt them. I mean, he's never been right before, has he? Why should we expect him to start now?

Although Lowell Cohn severely opposed the trades, and I don't think he's ever been right before, either. I don't know what to think now.

by RichardP on Dec 23, 2004 10:59 AM PST reply actions

Well,

you could think about this being the miracle season. :>)

by Pepper on Dec 23, 2004 11:38 AM PST up reply actions

Uh, let's play some games...

Now, no one can say Mr. Moneyball is just an overrated product of his Three Aces. Let's play some ball before making that assertion. While I don't doubt Beane's ability to get things done, losing a pair of quality starting pitchers isn't generally considered a good move (unless you think they're going south).

The early bird gets the worm, but the second mouse gets the cheese.

by scareduck on Dec 23, 2004 11:08 AM PST reply actions

This is...

...My favorite article written in recent memory. So much praise just makes my heart fill with joy, lol.

Beanetown Baby

by ohad on Dec 23, 2004 11:16 AM PST reply actions

Joy, yes.

Pass the eggnog.

by Pepper on Dec 23, 2004 11:39 AM PST up reply actions

Last August?

He was talking about trading 2 of the 3 last August?

by jrbh on Dec 23, 2004 11:39 AM PST reply actions

He knew it was coming

Hes a smart man.

Beanetown Baby

by ohad on Dec 23, 2004 11:45 AM PST up reply actions

if that's when he started talking about it

i'm sure he'd been thinking about it for at least a year.

by xbhaskarx on Dec 23, 2004 1:56 PM PST up reply actions

We are the A's

this is how we do it!Get used to it.If more than 2.2 million fans came we would not be discussing these trades.I have total faith in BB and Skip summed it up nicely.I bought my tickets for 05',HAVE YOU?

by floorpimp on Dec 23, 2004 11:44 AM PST reply actions

Yup

Looking forward to opening day, too!

by kaweahkaweah on Dec 23, 2004 11:47 AM PST up reply actions

pitchers

I have to question the writer's knowledge when he calls Blanton the #3 starter ahead of Haren and Meyer. I think Mychael Urban was much nearer the mark: Haren and Meyer have proved that they're ready for full time big league starting jobs; Blanton really hasn't.

by matthias on Dec 23, 2004 11:51 AM PST reply actions

Blanton

i see what you're saying, but this whole putting down blanton thing seems like a game of telephone. it started with people saying there are questions about blanton, why wouldn't there be at this stage. at this rate he may be declared a complete failure in a few weeks...

last year before harden turned into the ace of the staff, i seem to remember people saying blanton was better than harden. as good but without the wildness...

by xbhaskarx on Dec 23, 2004 2:31 PM PST up reply actions

In my opinion the add'l innings started to have

a noticeable effect on Blanton's game.
A fresh Blanton in ST will tell us what we have in our #5.
I think Meyer will be efective for 2/3 of the season and others will get the 1/3 left.
Thats a good thing, ... and expected

Billy Ball 2005; Lightning in a bottle!

by A s Eh on Dec 23, 2004 4:11 PM PST up reply actions

Blanton

Blanton's major league record is 8 innings pitched, 5.63 ERA. His ERA in AAA was 4.19. How could you not have questions about him?

Compare that to Haren who has 118 innings pitched with a 4.85 ERA. Haren has proved he can pitch in the bigs, and Blanton hasn't yet.

This is not a case of a Bobby Crosby, who was so awesome in AAA that you could feel fine about him getting a starting job before he got his first major league hit. (Crosby put up a .932 OPS over a full season in Sacramento.)

Dan Meyer is more like that type. He's had an ERA under 3 at every level, including 2.79 in 61 innings of AAA. But I'll concede it would be nice to have seen a full season at AAA from him.

So I'll grant you could make a case for calling Blanton the #4 starter. But no way can you justify calling him #3 ahead of Haren.

by matthias on Dec 24, 2004 3:54 AM PST up reply actions

Oh ye

Just for info, Hannukah started on the eighth and ended the fifteenth. Its ok though!

Beanetown Baby

by ohad on Dec 23, 2004 11:52 AM PST reply actions

Bayless Not Clueless Afterall

Wow! Talk about holiday cheer. I appreciated his words especially given his usually strong opinions. His discussion with BB about K Foulke was insightful and his modesty came through in his article. I agree that he may be mistaken about Blanton as the #3 man. The kid from St. Louis appears to be a better fit, perhaps for that role at this time (pure conjecture on my part).
If we really think about it, the order of the pitchers may not be that important over the longhaul of a season as we thought of in the past.
We always thought of the big3 as not having any particular disadvantage over an ace on another team. With that said, Macha and Howe would structure rotations to get them lined up for certain teams at times.
The tier of this years staff will be HArden/Zito and then the others in no particular order. The area of vulnerabilty as I can foresee is that of the 5th man in the rotation, who will not get consistent starts. That person may be better off in Sacto for developmental purposes. What do you think AN?

by Gerard on Dec 23, 2004 4:33 PM PST reply actions

agreed

at this point, based on 2004 performance I would rate Haren ahead of Blanton.

by OaklandSi on Dec 24, 2004 5:49 AM PST up reply actions

Left-handed starters

Would it not be preferable to follow left-handed Zito and right-handed Harden with our only other left-handed pitcher? If we used Meyer as our fifth starter we would start over again with the left handed Zito and have back-to-back starters. Would that not strain a bullpen, which has only two left-handers? (Rincon and Johnson) And Johnson is not even a certainty.

by Hang Man on Dec 26, 2004 2:48 PM PST up reply actions

Meyer

Will be the number 4.

Speculation is the art of imagination

by ohad on Dec 27, 2004 4:23 AM PST up reply actions

our vulnerabilities

Look at what Billy said. He mentions all our positions as set except 1B and DH. Maybe more dealing is coming?

The other thing I liked about the Bayless is recalling that we considered starting Blanton over Mulder at the season's end. The power of brand name is that there is so much hype about The Big Three that it overcame people's doubts about Mulder and Huddy's awful season endings. I think Mulder basically had to be traded this off-season, because if he came out of the gate next season pitching like a AA pitcher, his trade value would have fallen off the charts.

by Apricot on Dec 23, 2004 4:52 PM PST reply actions

also LF

also, BB didn't mention LF. Another possible place for dealing. In retrospect, Beane is very honest when talking to the press. But sometimes you have to read between the lines...

by Apricot on Dec 23, 2004 4:55 PM PST up reply actions

Heeee's Shreewwwd Man!

I have always enjoyed what he hasn't almost as much as what he has said. This year like none other!

by Gerard on Dec 23, 2004 5:00 PM PST up reply actions

re: more deals to come...?

I agree that a rotation of Zito, Harden, and 3 rookies would have a hard time contending for a division title, but Zito, Harden, a solid veteran, and 2 talented rookies could easily get the job done, with a solid bullpen and improved offense.

Meanwhile, you have duplication at more than one position (Byrnes/Thomas, Cruz/Calero, Ellis/Ginter, Hatteberg/Durazo/Johnson).

Right now the A's are poised to be exciting in '05, serious contenders in '06. But BB can pull the trigger now, or mid-season, to land a quality #3 starter, with plenty of ammunition to offer in order to land the guy he wants.

For example, maybe if Ellis looks healthy, Ginter is included in a May/June trade, for a starter who replaces the struggling rookie (whoever it may be)?

You get the idea: 3 rooks = retooling, but 2 rooks = contending. BB's theory is always stay close enough, evaluate needs, then make the necessary moves mid-season.

I think he's poised to do it and contend in '05, no?

Nico

by Nico on Dec 23, 2004 9:28 PM PST reply actions

I remember reading somewhere

that BB's practice every year is to evaluate the team's performance in April and May, and make the needed personnel adjustments in June and July. My guess is that he'll do the same in 2005.

by OaklandSi on Dec 24, 2004 5:51 AM PST up reply actions

Eh

Bayless seems to have some obsessive compulsive disorder when it comes to playing the devil's advocate. Recently he's written articles for Page 2 supporting Ty Willingham's firing (when it was being roundly (and justifiably) lambasted by everyone and he defended Barry Bonds in light of the Chronicle's bombshell announcements (despite having insinuated that Bonds is on the juice in the past in his own work). I don't know if he really feels that these are good trades or if he's just doing his OCD thing.

by dchu on Dec 24, 2004 2:19 AM PST reply actions

"Great article

I never read or listen to Bayliss but did read this article, absolutely correct on all points.
We will absolutely contend this year and might win it contrary to what I read in some of the AN comments. Everyone worries about rookie pitchers, yes, clever rookie pitchers are something to worry about, but flame throwers, no, no worry. Look at the strike out/walk ratios of the pitchers, that is the key. Yes, yes, I worry about Blanton a little, but Etherington is here, Cruz might start, this is not all put together yet, there is some more to come, but Zito is here, and for a long time I predict, watch Zito as #1. You will see a different pitcher. He is not in Hudson/Mulders shadow anymore, he is the ace, although I think we all agree that Harden is going to be special.
Bayliss through Beane said it best, neither Hudson or Mulder was in Johnsons, Martinez, Schilling, Brown class. We never had anyone who went in and flat shut the other team down, other than Zito at which time the A's forgot to score a run. Everybody, we are not trading Hatteberg, now repeat, Beane will not trade Hatteberg. YOu don't trade a guy who strikes out less than 50 times a year, hits .285, 15 HRS. and an OBP of .280 plus. You might if you had a superstar, but forget Johnson. He is not an athlete, and still a rookie. He may hit someday, but he makes Giambi look agile around first base. He will replace Durazo if he can hit, we don't know that yet. We think he can, he has great stats, we hope he can, he is not fast, not athletic, an ideal DH. He will never play left field.

by china bob on Dec 24, 2004 4:09 AM PST reply actions

Problem with your scouting report

I'm a big fan of the pitchers we got in the two trades, but flamethrowers they are not. Both Meyer and Haren sport fastballs in the low-90s.

by grover on Dec 24, 2004 8:02 AM PST up reply actions

absolutely correct on Zito

and Johnson. I've always felt Zito was the best of the "big 3",and I believe he will return to
solid form. Rated #1 or #2 doesn't really matter
to me. Johnson will not play OF unless it's an
emergency type thing. He'll be 1b or DH . I have
a lot of confidence that he will hit,for average
and power. .280/25/80 if he gets about 400 AB.

by sommers on Dec 24, 2004 7:04 AM PST reply actions

Um: PRoblem

Those numbers at the end are Durazo numbers. Even better! And in 400 at bats. Don't forget this guy has not seen major league pitching. I know he's a great hitter, and i would expect in 500 at bats from him maybe those numbers. Don't know about the avergae though. It takes longer for rookies to develop average then power, seeing as they can still get mistakes from pitchers and stuff, but they also strike out more and stuff. Crosby: 22 homers but an average of .230 something. He is a .280-.290 hitter, jsut not in his first year.

Beanetown Baby

by ohad on Dec 24, 2004 7:24 AM PST up reply actions

I don't get it

Zito was the best of the Big 3, yet for long stretches over the course of two seasons he pitched like Mark Redman.

by grover on Dec 24, 2004 8:01 AM PST up reply actions

What?

Which two seasons are you talking about?!!!!!! Are you including 2003? Whats wrong with a 3.30 ERA?! Cuz his 14-12 record doesnt reflect it? We're all smarter than that. If people can tell me that zito was going down after his 03 season, thats just not true. It may seem like going down to you because he got less run support, and because he didn't win the cy young. There are not many pitchers who can put up those same numbers year in and year out. Schilling, Pedro, Johnson. There are a few others who maybe could be included. Last year was the one and only year after his establishment as a great pitcher. Don't discard him pitching better after the break, after the first half adjustment period was over.

Beanetown Baby

by ohad on Dec 24, 2004 8:47 AM PST up reply actions

Hopefully 2004 was just a blip

In a very recent interview, Mulder alluded to Zito's struggles last year, and said something to the effect that Zito had some personal things going on in his life that he didn't want to elaborate publicly. Hopefully these problems are behind him (and not just for the sake of Oakland's pitching) and 2005 will be a better year for him.

by kaweahkaweah on Dec 24, 2004 9:32 AM PST up reply actions

I for one

Have 100 percent confidence that he will put up low to mid 3 ERA numbers and come back to his old form. I'm pumped to see that curveball. When you watch it on TV, it seems so slow. One game i was sitting first row behind bullpen, and i was watching him warm up. And he was throwing it, and it was like beautiful! Just fell to the floor out of nowhere. A pitcher with a pitch like that is not going to become an average pitcher.

Beanetown Baby

by ohad on Dec 24, 2004 10:15 AM PST up reply actions

There's a Reason...

why Zito won the Cy Young so early in his career. Great pitchers have the tools (mental and physical)that separate them from the rest. There was a lot of talk last about the 9 different pitches Hudson has in his repetoire (pardonez mon fancais), and Mulder with his. Zito was described as a 3 pitch guy and had to rely on his control. Fine. But look what happened in the 2nd half. He returned nearer to form than what we've seen for awhile. I have a sneaking hunch that he may be the one pitcher they do hold onto as BB sees him in the same light as he views Chavez.

by Gerard on Dec 24, 2004 1:04 PM PST up reply actions

You know what

I am feeling better, and better,and better,and better,and better,and better,and better,and better,and better,and better,and better,and better,and better,and better,and better,and better,and better,and better,and better,and better,and better,and better,and better,and better,and better,and better,and better,and better,and better,and better,and better,and better

About keeping Zito. I can't wait too see him wooping baltimores ass on opening day and making them feel sorry they didn't offer Erik Bedard, Miguel Tejada and all of his contract plus John Maine for him.

Beanetown Baby

by ohad on Dec 24, 2004 1:14 PM PST up reply actions