Tired of Talking about Rumors?

by Tyler Bleszinski on Dec 14, 2004 10:18 AM PST in News

Are you tired of talking about Hudson trade rumors? Do you get a rumbling in the pit of your stomach thinking about the impending breakup of our Big Three?

I want to ignore the rumors, speculation and guessing for a minute and discuss the team as it stands today. More specifically, the batting order.

The speculation began with Ken Macha saying that Jason Kendall could wind up hitting third in the A's lineup, pushing Eric Chavez back to cleanup. Nick Swisher, a rookie with a penchant for patience at the plate, would take over the second spot in the lineup.

So, according to Macha, the lineup could wind up looking something like this:

Kotsay
Swisher
Kendall
Chavez
Durazo
Crosby
Hatteberg/Johnson
Byrnes/Kielty
Ellis/Scutaro

The top five in the batting order bring some potent patience, but only sporadic power. Kotsay hit 15 homers last year, who knows whether Swisher's minor-league power will translate as quickly as Crosby's did, Kendall hasn't had power in several seasons, Chavez is capable of topping 40 and Durazo also has the ability to crack 30.

Crosby also showed impressive power last season, but you never know how a sophomore will adjust in his second season.

I personally like the idea of putting Kotsay in a spot to drive in more runs. So, my ideal lineup as the roster stands today, would be:

Kendall
Swisher
Kotsay
Chavez
Durazo
Crosby
Hatteberg/Johnson
Byrnes/Kielty
Ellis/Scutaro

Of course, Billy could make a deal and make this all irrelevant any way...wait I'm avoiding that topic.

Which lineup would you like to see if Billy stands pat and resigns Durazo as expected? Click on the entry link below to vote:

Poll

Which is the best A's offensive lineup as the team stands?

Kendall, Kotsay, Byrnes, Chavez, Durazo, Crosby, Hatter/DJ, Swisher, Ellis/Scoot

13 votes

None of the Above

20 votes

Kotsay, Swisher, Kendall, Chavez, Durazo, Crosby, Hatter/DJ, Byrnes, Ellis/Scoot

10 votes

Kendall, Swisher, Kotsay, Chavez, Durazo, Crosby, Hatter/DJ, Byrnes, Ellis/Scoot

26 votes

Kendall, Durazo, Kotsay, Chavez, Crosby, Swisher, Hatter/DJ, Byrnes, Ellis/Scoot

2 votes

Kotsay, Hatter/DJ, Kendall, Chavez, Durazo, Crosby, Swisher, Byrnes, Ellis/Scoot

0 votes

71 votes | Poll has closed

Tweet Comment 63 comments | 0 recs |

Do you like this story?

Comments

Legos

Im just wondering how many times in the '04 season did the A's run out the "starting" lineup? It always seems that the manager (of any team) factors in the starting pitcher, the stadium, health and much more when making a daily lineup. I am sure that Kotsay will leadoff some games. I am equaly sure that Kendall will get his chance. Playing with the lineup is like playing with Legos. Each day you can build something new from the same parts.

"I don't know what the facts are.." - Rummy

by Parklife on Dec 14, 2004 10:29 AM PST reply actions

Good point...

they still do the matchups. Guess I was talking more about opening day lineup. But that could also vary depending on who the A's face on opening day.

I'm just wondering who the A's stick at leadoff more than anything. Kotsay has openly pined for the second or third spot in the lineup.

We shall see.

by Tyler Bleszinski on Dec 14, 2004 10:32 AM PST up reply actions

Your Line up

Has Leftys three in a row.

by paul75 on Dec 14, 2004 10:30 AM PST reply actions

Kotsay and Chavez

both had OBPs of over .400 against left-handed pitching last season.

That could be an aberration for Chavy considering his career against left-handed pitching, but I like that lineup a lot.

by Tyler Bleszinski on Dec 14, 2004 10:42 AM PST up reply actions

thanks blez, but...

...i don't like any of the options.

this post(or vote)does offer some clarity to a major dilemma for this team- the lack of a true clean-up hitter in this lineup.

now, before the "what the fuck you talkin' about" responses come flooding in re: chavez, i don't believe (yet anyway) chavez has a 4 hole mentality. i fear for his mental well-being come mid-june. billy would need to call in tony robbins and restore chavez's self esteem.

furthermore, i don't see ruby as a 4 hole hitter either-better suited for 5.

so, (without starting any trade rumours) we need an ass kickin', rbi hoggin', fearless, spit-in- the-pitcher-eye 4 hole hitter. period.

it's OK to steal-just don't let billy see ya.

by bigelephant on Dec 14, 2004 11:13 AM PST reply actions

Well, what if you had to put someone there?

Billy may get players before then, but maybe not.

by Tyler Bleszinski on Dec 14, 2004 11:16 AM PST up reply actions

i'd rather bat you in the 4 hole

...than anyone that's offered so far.

it's OK to steal-just don't let billy see ya.

by bigelephant on Dec 14, 2004 11:18 AM PST up reply actions

LOL

Is MLB moving to slo-pitch next season?

by Tyler Bleszinski on Dec 14, 2004 11:24 AM PST up reply actions

if you aren't available blez...

here's a profile of a guy i think we need:

.268 avg, 35 hrs, 118 rbi 23 doubles
.505 slg, .321 obp

who is this mystery man: dave kingman, 1985.

i want a grumpy, miserable, SOB, bastard who hates every human being who dares throw a ball in his direction from 60 ft 6 in.

thats who i want batting clean-up.

it's OK to steal-just don't let billy see ya.

by bigelephant on Dec 14, 2004 12:14 PM PST up reply actions

He also hates human beings

with a tape recorder and 2 X chromosomes (look about 2/3 of the way down).

by Nick on Dec 14, 2004 12:21 PM PST up reply actions

it's incredible you had that link!!!

...i was thinking of the very incident as i typed the post.

the two things i noticed: the $3,500.00 fine (i can hear kingman now : "best damn $3500 i ever spent") and all the "pro-calls" he received on the call-in shows in oakland.

it's OK to steal-just don't let billy see ya.

by bigelephant on Dec 14, 2004 12:31 PM PST up reply actions

Weird connection to current A's

As I remember from 1985, Kingman was the one who suggested to Curt Young that he "turn over" the change-up he was working on in spring training so that the pitch would fade away from righties. That adjustment is what made Young a very good ML pitcher for a few years.

by Nick on Dec 14, 2004 12:49 PM PST up reply actions

ahhhh the 80's.....

...from 1979-jimmy marshall- 54-108- 34 gms out TO 1980 billy martin-83-79- 14 gms out, 2nd place behind kc and thinkin' we'll be KINGS in 1981!!!

when BILLYBALL was, long before MONEYBALL is.

it's OK to steal-just don't let billy see ya.

by bigelephant on Dec 14, 2004 12:58 PM PST up reply actions

Kingman rules

I'm sure Beane would be impressed by his 119 Ks and 44 BBs that year as well. Still, that is EXACTLY the kind of player I want to see in that number 4 spot-- just a killer. Does MLB still make personalities like that? Or did they all die when steroids became the new coke?

by juan on Dec 14, 2004 3:07 PM PST up reply actions

Agreed.

We need a power guy.

I dont care if he hits .260, but I want 40 gomers.

by Josh @ Athletics Nation on Dec 14, 2004 11:34 AM PST up reply actions

damn right josh

it's OK to steal-just don't let billy see ya.

by bigelephant on Dec 14, 2004 12:02 PM PST up reply actions

and your attitude

is what has led to the problem with steroids in MLB.

by Just Me on Dec 14, 2004 12:14 PM PST up reply actions

HAHAHAHA . . .

. . . Please tell me that that was not a serious moral rebuke of my comment.

Please?

by Josh @ Athletics Nation on Dec 14, 2004 6:01 PM PST up reply actions

Power hitter

Rock on bigelephant, the A's need a kick ass number 4 hitter if they ever expect to get to the World Series.

by brosa49 on Dec 14, 2004 5:21 PM PST up reply actions

unfortunately.....

....some of other welling meaning brothers and sisters (i'ii let you sort out who's who) are still debating the merits of chavez vs. ruby in the 4 hole and if ellis should bat 2nd or 9th (see below).

but, i tell you my fellow "kingkong" buddies, billy MUST get this team a true legit 4 hole hitter who'ii strike 3 times but spank one out in the ninth for a gamer.

christ people, give us JOHNNY JAHA, MATT (CANADIAN BACON)STAIRS, BIG DAVE PARKER fuck SOMEBODY who walks with a big set of brass balls!!!!!!!

it's OK to steal-just don't let billy see ya.

by bigelephant on Dec 14, 2004 6:56 PM PST up reply actions

Macha is Such a Fucking Idiot

We're going to have a #3 hitter who hits one or two home runs a year?

by jrbh on Dec 14, 2004 11:27 AM PST reply actions

#3 Hitter

I'd rather have a guy who will hit .330 Avg, .400 OBP, 5 HR, 75 RBI in the 3-Hole. Let the big boppers - #4, #5, and #6 - get the RBI's. #1, #2, #3 Hitters should be setting the table, and that's exactly what Kotsay, Swisher, and Kendall do.

As for lineups, the majority of the time I want Byrnsie batting 1st vs. Lefties (He rakes lefties), and Kotsay batting leadoff vs. Righties.

vs. LH:
Byrnes
Kotsay
Kendall
Chavez
Crosby
Durazo
Swisher
Hatteberg/Johnson
Ellis/Scutaro

vs. RH:
Kotsay
Swisher
Kendall
Chavez
Durazo
Hatteberg
Crosby
Byrnes
Ellis/Scutaro

Let's Go Oak-Land!

by Colorado Fan on Dec 14, 2004 4:27 PM PST up reply actions

The Negativity Never Ends w/ JRB-H

I actually agree to an extent with Constance, but the profanity needs to end in the subject line. We all know how you feel about Macha and Wash B-H.

The number three spot is for the teams best hitter. On this web site, everyone is so in love with Kotsay, that most would probably want Kots batting third. My pick is Chavez.

I would bat Kotsay, Kendall, Chavez, Ruby, Swisher, etc.

Hopefully we can add a big swatter too, to hit 4th and have Ruby hitting 5th. Why couldn't Billy have signed JD to a 2 yr $10 mil deal. I'll take burnitz at this point, even though he's more lefty power. I'll take any right handed hitter with 30-40 HR power at this point. Any, even Rob Deer. There's not much power available, we need to get some. And some SB's. The team speed is fine, but we still don't have a guy that can guarantee a steal. Kotsay and Kendall have good speed, but no one has blazing speed.

He HATE Me Joe Morgan is the MAN

by Misfit on Dec 15, 2004 8:16 AM PST up reply actions

Put Kotsay in the 3-hole

Kotsay was the team's best hitter last year. If it were my decison, the 3-hole is his to lose, particularly since he has voiced disdain towards batting lead-off

by CrosbyFan on Dec 14, 2004 11:39 AM PST reply actions

Kotsay?

In what aspect of hitting other than perhaps base-stealing did Kotsay outperform Durazo?

by Nate on Dec 14, 2004 11:44 AM PST up reply actions

Kotsay vs Durazo

Kotsay had far fewer strikeouts than Durazo. Everything else Durazo rated better, but in most cases only slightly.

by iglew on Dec 14, 2004 1:08 PM PST up reply actions

Kotsay v Durazo

OPS+
114 v 136
AB/HR
40.4 v 26.5
OBP
.370 v .396

Ruby is a much better hitter than Kotsay - Kotsay is a better overall player, but with the stick, it's not even close.

Relax alright don't try to strike everyone out. Strikeouts are boring besides that they're fascist. Throw some ground balls it's more democratic.

by devo on Dec 14, 2004 2:17 PM PST up reply actions

I don't like any of those lineups.

I've made this point in other discussions like this, when in discussing lineups, it seemed to be a given that Chavez would bat 3rd, and the discussion was whether Durazo should be 4th or 5th.

Last year, the best hitter on the team was Erubiel Durazo. He got hits a lot more than Chavez did, his slugging percentage was higher than Chavez, and the only reason their OBP was so close was the fact that Chavez was hitting ahead of Dye, who struck out a lot and didn't move runners well.

Durazo should hit third, Chavez should hit cleanup, and the guy pitchers won't want to face with runners on should hit fifth. I have no problems with putting K&K first and second. I'll lead Kotsay off, to keep it from being four lefties in a row, but I'm not truly bothered by that.

Kotsay
Kendall
Durazo
Chavez
Hatteberg
Byrnes
Swisher
Crosby
Ellis/Scutaro

by Nate on Dec 14, 2004 11:43 AM PST reply actions

How about

Kendall
Kotsay
Durazo ... um ...

Wow, we realy do need a power hitting righty!

I think Chavez is the right fit for the fourth slot, but that's bunching all our best lefites in a row. Do we think Johnson has enough moxie (and talent) to hit cleanup?

How about

Byrnes
Kotsay
Kendall
Durazo
Chavez
Crosby
Hatteberg
Swisher
Whomever is playing second?

by Eck on Dec 14, 2004 11:46 AM PST reply actions

We have one

We have a power hitting righty. Bobby Crosby. At least his power to batting average ratio is really high. But he probably shouldn't hit third.

Durazo should hit third unless they trade for someone better.

by RichardP on Dec 14, 2004 12:08 PM PST reply actions

Maybe Crosby is gonna be great ...

but he's not there yet. As much as we all love the A's, I don't think anyone else would put Crosby in the four hole.

by Eck on Dec 14, 2004 1:57 PM PST up reply actions

mark ellis-two hole

Kendall
Ellis (or Larkin)
Kotsay
Chavvy
Ruby
BoCro
Hatte/DJ
Byrnes
Swish

The only thing i don't like about moving Kotsay to 3 is how successful kot/kendall could be with situational ball,ie hit&run/run&hit, it works out on mvp baseball 2004! also when did Kotsay express his desire to not hit leadoff? I don't remember him saying that?

by MarkKot on Dec 14, 2004 1:01 PM PST reply actions

2005 Lineup

CF Kotsay
C Kendall
3B Chavez
DH Durazo
LF Byrnes
1B Hatteberg
SS Crosby
RF Swisher
2B Ellis / Scutaro

Keep Kotsay and Kendall at the top of the order (get ducks on the pond for Chavez). We have invested a ton in Chavez to be the anchor of our lineup for years to come, now is not the time to bump him from the #3-hole. Keep Durazo at #4 because he's a smart hitter who won't chase bad pitches, and because he has more pop than anyone other than Chavez. Byrnes hits #5 -- showed a lot of power last year, has been getting better and betetr with more playing time, and (the big key) won't hit into to DPs with all of these guys on base in front of him. Which will allow Hatteberg to get up in big innings, and we all know how clutch Hatteberg is (if Hatteberg's anything, he's a great 2-out RBI guy). Then you get to the #7-9 holes and hope everything works out.

by Uncle Charlie on Dec 14, 2004 1:18 PM PST reply actions

Nick Swisher will not last in 2 hole

guarantee he will not last in the 2 hole. got to be kidding me.

the person above me posted the correct lineup, execpt that byrnes has no idea how to work an at bat. byrnes perfect at 7, where he can hack all he wants. swisher at 8.

by suggy on Dec 14, 2004 1:33 PM PST reply actions

#2 Hole

The 2 Hole is actually a good place for a patient rook IF you have plent of pop behind him. If Chavy and Durazo have strong years, then Swish would see a lot of fastballs, which is never anything but a good thing. That said, I'd stick him at 7,8,or9 since Kendall is the prototypical #2 hitter (For $11MM/year, he better be a prototypical something!).

by jubjub on Dec 14, 2004 2:13 PM PST up reply actions

I like Swish in the two hole

Nick Johnson flourished in a similar role his first two years in the league, and they are very similar hitters. Here's my take

CF Kotsay
RF Swisher
C Kendall
3B Chavez
DH Durazo
SS Crosby
LF Byrnes
1B Johnson/Hatteberg
2B Ellis/Scutaro

Well, you may run like Mays, but you hit like shit.

by nothinlikethetown on Dec 14, 2004 4:12 PM PST up reply actions

Vs lefties

C Kendall
CF Kotsay
LF Byrnes
3B chavez
DH Durazo
SS Crosby
1B Johnson/Hatteberg
RF Swisher
2B Ellis/Scutaro

Well, you may run like Mays, but you hit like shit.

by nothinlikethetown on Dec 14, 2004 4:13 PM PST up reply actions

Suggy

I completely agree that Swisher is not right in the 2-hole. First of all, that's too much pressure on a rookie (esp when you've got two seasoned vets who thrive at the top of the order -- Kendall and Kotsay). Second of all, Swisher will be better off if we let him develop without having the pressure of needing to get on base in front of Chavez and Durazo. Ideally, Swisher ends up being a guy we can move into the middle of the lineup later in his career -- why start him off thinking "my job is to get on base for other guys to knock me in?" I want Swisher thinking like a middle-of-the-lineup guy, not a 2-hitter. He's got too much pop for that.

As for Byrnes in the 5-hole, the other options (as far as I can see) are Hatteberg and Crosby. I don't like Hatteberg just because (as much as I hate Macha's strict constructionist L-R-L-R tendencies) I don't like the idea of Chavez-Durazo-Hatteberg -- too easy to bring in a lefty specialist and run right through the middle of our lineup. Unless Beane spends some money on our bench (bahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha -- whew, oh man, that was funny), we can't afford to put ourselves in a position where we get to the 8th inning and our 3-4-5 can be shut down by one lefty specialist.

So, the other option is Crosby. And as much as Byrnes may not know how to handle a bat, he did hit over .280 last year while Crosby was busy dancing with the .240-line, so I'd have to put Byrnes in the #5-hole. It's not ideal, but as I said in my earlier message, there are advantages to having someone like Byrnes in that spot (i.e., less likely to ground into DP, he HAS power, he hit .280 last year).

by Uncle Charlie on Dec 14, 2004 1:50 PM PST reply actions

The Truth Comes Out

As we're tinkering with the A's lineup it becomes readily clear that, in 2005, offense is not going to be our stregth. We have some solid players, but after Chavez and maybe Crosby or Kendall, who would you take over the Red Sox starters?

After Kotsay, who would you take over the Yankees starting nine?

Maybe we'll have three or four we'd take over the Angel's starters. And maybe three we'd take three over the Rangers.

My point is that without the A's Big Four starting pitchers we're not making the playoffs.

by Eck on Dec 14, 2004 2:06 PM PST reply actions

Uggh

Millar has a very slim edge over Hatty, Ortiz got all the press, but his edge over Ruby is pretty damn slim too, Ellis - if healthy - is waayyyyy better than Belhorn ... we have no idea who the Sox SS is going to be, Gabe Kapler? no thanks, give me Swish, Kotsay is easily better than the caveman, with the bat, on the bases, and, especially, in the field ... of course Byrnesy can't hold a candle to Manny.

Outside of LF, it's pretty much a wash against the Sox ...

Hatty is better than well, nobody at first ... Ruby is better than anyone the Yanks might send to DH ... if healthy, Ellis well be significantly better than whoever they throw out at second - Jeter is overrated, and Crosby was better than him defensively this year (the real GG was Miggie). When we factor in defense, 3b is pretty much a wash, and we have a big advantage in Center ... of course, Sheff and Matsui are way better in at the corners than anyone we can offer ... but then, their rotation is still going to blow.

Relax alright don't try to strike everyone out. Strikeouts are boring besides that they're fascist. Throw some ground balls it's more democratic.

by devo on Dec 14, 2004 2:26 PM PST up reply actions

Lineups

Love you optimism, just do not see Ellis being a clear edge over Bellhorn especially with the bat. I would have to take Bellhorn in that comparison. Isn't Nixon still in rf if not Millar will play there I would take either over swisher, and they have the money to go out and get a dh who I would have to take over Hatte. No it is hard to compare the lineups and not give a decided edge to Boston.

NY on the other hand has major question marks, but even then you would have to give them a big edge simply because they have Sheff, Arod and Matsui right in the middle of their order.

To actually have anything even remotely close to these lineups we need a better lf to offset the huge advantage Manny and Matsui give them.

ogallalabob

by ogallalabob on Dec 14, 2004 2:45 PM PST up reply actions

oh yeah ...

You're right about Ellis - I forgot that I was supposed to just be talking about offense, Bellhorn is certainly superior with the stick - just not enough so to overcome the fact that Ellis is the best defensive 2b in the game, by a longshot.

Yeah, Trot is the RF ... forgot about him, since he missed most of last year, he wasn't listed as the starting RF on B-R.com.

I think you confused yourself and started talking about NYY in the middle of your response to the BoSox - since the Sox have a DH ... and Hatte is a 1b ... and, in that case, I already addressed that matchup.

So, when factoring in the Ellis and Trot things, I would give a little more of an advantage, with the bat, to the Sox - but we have a significant advantage in the field and, with or without Huddy, on the mound as well ... we'll have to see how the 'pen shapes up.

I believe the current plan in NYY is to bring in Beltran and let Bernie DH fulltime. Beltran would give them an advantage in CF (though not huge, especially if D is considered) but Bernie would be a huge hole at DH.

I'm strongly of the opinion that it's a significant disadvantage to have all of your talent compressed into a few key players and, especially in the playoffs, it's a far greater advantage to have many quality contributers.

Relax alright don't try to strike everyone out. Strikeouts are boring besides that they're fascist. Throw some ground balls it's more democratic.

by devo on Dec 14, 2004 3:08 PM PST up reply actions

offense vs defense

Its much easier to make up for a defensive defeciency with offense than the other way around. And the offensive gap between 2004 Bellhorn and say 2003 ellis is too much for any amount of defense to overcome.

My seatbelt is broken. What do you suggest I do?

by Diesel @ Athletics Nation on Dec 14, 2004 3:23 PM PST up reply actions

Not true at all...

In either respect.

You just don't realize how incredible Ellis is with the leather ... he prevents nearly twice as many runs/season as the next best defensive 2b.

In terms of teams, sure, offense is more important, no defense can prevent every run and you do need to actually score to win.

As long as the 8 other guys in the lineup contribute enough runs to give the team a chance to win, it's really quite irrelevent as to whether your marginal contributions come in the field or at the plate.

Relax alright don't try to strike everyone out. Strikeouts are boring besides that they're fascist. Throw some ground balls it's more democratic.

by devo on Dec 14, 2004 4:15 PM PST up reply actions

He

may be able to prevent twice as many runs (which i'm not saying is true) but thats still not going to be a large enough number to make up 120 or so points in OPS.

My seatbelt is broken. What do you suggest I do?

by Diesel @ Athletics Nation on Dec 14, 2004 4:56 PM PST up reply actions

I seen 'em both

Still got to pick Ellis over Bellhorn. Defensively, there is no comparison. Offensively, Bellhorn had a career year... sooner or later, Tatoo is going to come... Ellis' upside is much larger.

The triple of Jeremy Brown's imagination was, in reality, a home run.

by ArakSOT on Dec 15, 2004 1:28 PM PST up reply actions

lineup

1-2 should be chosen from
kotsay
kendall
byrnes
in some order
3-6
durazo
chavez (the best spot is cleanup)
swisher
hatteberg (the fifth spot or 6th)
byrnes
kotsay
7-9
crosby
ellis/scutaro/utility man

i put crosby below swisher because besides his mid june - early august strench, he still swung at down N away pitches. seeing swisher's plate disclipine for a brief moment in the bigs, i thought swisher was more patient plus i'm hoping he'll mash it like when he was a rivercat.

the open season is a pre-teen right now, so things can happen from now and the future.

by ucla kid on Dec 14, 2004 2:18 PM PST reply actions

Lineup

Juggle the lineup all you want but it still comes out the same we are missing 1 or 2 bats, either lf or 2nd needs to be up graded. We need to find a rh hitter to hit 3rd or 4th, I like Brynes and all but realistically he should be the 4th outfielder getting 250 ab's, backing up all 3 outfield spots.

ogallalabob

by ogallalabob on Dec 14, 2004 2:21 PM PST reply actions

Since we're looking at vs LHP and vs RHP...

Let's take a closer look at the hitters actual performance vs lefty and righty arms.

Mark Kotsay:

vs LHP .336/.401/.461
vs RHP .306/.359/.458

A small dip in BA and OBP against righties, that's still an .800 OPS.

Jason Kendall:

vs LHP .291/.393/.340
vs RHP .325/.400/.401

Small dip in BA vs lefties, and what little power he has diminishes against them. His OBP stays high either way.

Eric Byrnes:

vs LHP .344/.406/.599
vs RHP .260/.324/.417

Absolutely destroys lefties, but is almost replacement level against righties.

Erubiel Durazo:

vs LHP .278/.343/.430
vs RHP .340/.419/.564

Significantly better in all areas against right-handed pitching.

Eric Chavez:

vs LHP .306/.412/.481
vs RHP .257/.388/.514

The difference in OBP is solely a function of the difference in batting average. So for whatever reason, Chavvy was getting more hits off of lefties, but hitting for more power against righties. Has traditionally had a lot of problems with lefties, so this may be an anomaly.

Scott Hatteberg:

vs LHP .285/.351/.395
vs RHP .283/.374/.431

About as close to pitching-arm-neutral as you're likely to see in the majors. Got a few more walks and dingers against righties.

Bobby Crosby:

vs LHP .194/.287/.381
vs RHP .254/.330/.451

Had a respectable season against righties, did rather poorly against lefties. Definitely wouldn't put him out of the bottom half of the order yet.

Nick Swisher:

vs LHP .500/.667/.700
vs RHP .200/.268/.360

This is in some very limited time. He only had 15 plate appearances against lefties. Should probably start low and then be lifted in the order as his hitting merits.

Marco Scutaro:

vs LHP .276/.317/.497
vs RHP .271/.287/.345

Somewhat oddly, he gets a power & OBP jump against lefties, still don't anticipate him hitting anywhere but ninth.

And just for kicks, Mark Ellis from 2003:

vs LHP .217/.279/.342
vs RHP .259/.326/.382

So yes, Scutaro was actually a BETTER hitter last year than Ellis was the year before. It's marginal, though, and not remotely close to making up for the superiority of Ellis defensively. Still, Scutaro makes a nice bench player, one who will be above-average defensively if either Kotsay or Ellis get pinch-hit for.

But back to the original topic, here's what this says to me our lineups should be against RHP and LHP.

vs RHP

Kotsay
Kendall
Durazo
Chavez
Hatteberg
Crosby
Byrnes
Swisher
Ellis

vs LHP

Kotsay
Kendall
Chavez
Byrnes
Durazo
Swisher
Hatteberg
Crosby
Ellis

by Nate on Dec 14, 2004 3:42 PM PST reply actions

Clarification

I didn't make it clear in the post, but all the stats I quoted were only from 2004, except for Mark Ellis

by Nate on Dec 14, 2004 3:44 PM PST up reply actions

Byrnes

Should bat leadoff vs. Lefties.

Let's Go Oak-Land!

by Colorado Fan on Dec 14, 2004 4:43 PM PST up reply actions

That has to be the longest post ever

by Misfit on Dec 15, 2004 8:20 AM PST up reply actions

Pfft

It's not even [b]my[/b] longest post...

by Nate on Dec 16, 2004 12:34 AM PST up reply actions

Kendall Leadoff?

I guess the only thing I can further contribute to this post would be the idea that Kendall should hit leadoff, and Kotsay should hit in the 2 hole. It would make sense from a power standpoint (Kotsay has little power but is Bondsian compared to Kendall), and I believe Kotsay has said he's more comfortable in the 2 spot and Kendall said he is more comfortable leading off.

(BTW I have heard that Kendall has decent speed so that is really not a factor)

by rickeytime on Dec 14, 2004 4:45 PM PST reply actions

My "best A's lineup"

I haven't scrutinized each post, but my "best lineup" looks a bit different from the ones I've seen. I would caution against batting Swisher second, since his rookie year will likely produce a lower OBP than his overall career OBP might be, and he's not a great speed, bunt guy in terms of his "player type." So he could find himself less useful batting second than 7-9, where his strengths will look like luxuries, rather than his weaknesses looking like liabilities.

You want everyone batting, ideally, in a place where their strengths can be put to good use, regardless of whether it fits the stereotype of where speed, power, big/little ball players are "supposed" to bat. Thus, I'd suggest (you can flip Kendall and Kotsay if it pleases you and still keep everything else the same):

Kotsay
Ellis
Kendall
Chavez
Durazo
Crosby
Hatteberg
Swisher
Byrnes

Here, Ellis' ability to bunt and hit-and-run makes him a better "offensive player" than he actually is a hitter--case in point, Eckstein--Kendall's (or Kotsay's) strength with RISP, and overall "excellent hitting" can be put to good use, Byrnes gives you the "double-leadoff" ability to use speed when you want (in front of a guy who can bunt and hit-and-run), the top 6 of the order provide many ways to score runs against many different types of pitchers, and the bottom of the order is pleasantly full of power, and general competence, for a 7-9.

I'd be interested to hear feedback from others, if people are still finding the lineup debate interesting.

Nico

by Nico on Dec 14, 2004 6:21 PM PST reply actions

Skepticism

Given that over the course of a season you want your best hitters to hit the most often, it's not clear why a team shouldn't simply bat players in the order of their ability. Put your best hitter first, etc. I understand you might not want to put your best home run hitter first, although if he's your best hitter it's better than batting him 4th, where he'll come up less often.

I've never understood why teams bat second a player who is a weak hitter relative to the rest of the lineup. For example, I recall the Red Sox often batting Orlando Cabrera second, when every other hitter in the Red Sox lineup had a better on base percentage than he did. I understand the idea that it's nice to have guys on base when a home run hitter comes up but having someone who can "handle a bat" in the second spot doesn't necessarily make that more likely.

Particularly since the A's (correctly) don't bunt or steal much the team should just go with the best hitters in order. That means until Swisher proves himself to be the second best hitter on the team, I'm not sure you want him batting second. Batting him second means you think it's better for the team if he bats more often than Chavez or Durazo. I would have thought a Moneyball team would do away with the old conventions of certain types of hitters should hit in certain places in the lineup.

by SA on Dec 14, 2004 6:57 PM PST reply actions

Irrelevance of batting order

BP and others tried puzzling over the batting-order question for a while -- and they basically gave up on it, saying that it really doesn't matter a whole lot.

I'm with you, SA.

We here at AN have all the time in the world to dream up batting orders, but Macha really should have more important things to do with his time during the season. Batting order just isn't nearly as important in relation to the amount of institutional resources (time, brainpower, etc) that are devoted to it.

by monkeyball on Dec 15, 2004 7:57 AM PST up reply actions

re why not just bat in descending order of ability

To address this question: First of all, the number of ABs a #2 hitter gets compared to a #5 hitter (as an example) is not much, even over the course of an entire season. In a given game, it's only different at all if the last out in the last inning happens to be made by the 2, 3, or 4 hitter. So over the course of a season, it would be about 50 ABs or so.

What matters more (I think) is when you have, say, 3-4 guys in a row who are maybe excellent hitters, but also are high in number of walks and in number of DPs hit into. You end up with a lot of innings that go: BB, DP, BB, BB, out, or BB, BB, DP, BB, out, etc...Which is one reason the A's leave so many on base: they have a lot of guys who get on base and a fair number of guys who drive in runs, but not enough guys who "get 'em over" in the "get 'em on, get 'em over, get 'em in" paradigm.

No matter what order you bat the same guys, you'll get roughly the same # of runs from the walks and power approach (for the A's that might be 3-4 runs/game), but what the A's need is to turn 3-4 runs into 4-6 runs, by adding some additional ways to score in between, i.e. creating and manufacturing runs ALONG WITH (not in place of) the "Moneyball" rallies.

Hence, the lineup I proposed a couple posts back--you not only see THAT runs can score, you can also see HOW they can score, because guys tend to bat in situations where they can use their strengths and where their strengths will be needed.

Nico

by Nico on Dec 14, 2004 7:12 PM PST reply actions

How it works in practice

I appreciate your points, and it makes sense if 1-6 are of similar ability and the primary difference is less of a likelihood to hit into a double play, for example.

But last year we often saw McLemore batting second and Durazo, who was probably the best hitter on the team, batting 6th. I would much rather ensure that Durazo comes up as often as possible. At least a few times last year, such as in Baltimore, Durazo won games single-handedly (including with solo home runs). I just think it makes the most sense to get your best hitters up as often as possible. 50 more at bats in a season seems like quite a lot of at bats.

by SA on Dec 14, 2004 7:31 PM PST reply actions

If Byrnes rakes Lefties...

Why bat him leadoff against them? That makes a lot of sense people....let him smash the ball when no one is on base. Am I the only one that thinks putting Byrnes at #4 against lefties would give us the power right hander we all want. Byrnes has some pretty good pop and if he works on his opposite field hitting (which I'm sure he will this winter) all those weak pop outs to second will be deep fly balls to right. He'll be picking up RBI's like crazy with a lefty. Look at his slugging numbers...those are good indicators of what kind of RBI's a guy is going to produce if given the opportunity. A big reason why the #3 and #4 guys get so many is simply because there are actually people on base. Actually, and I might be alone on this, I think Byrnes can handle the spot at least as good as Dye vs RH AND LH (look at their numbers) but I think he would be better suited just againts LH there. Unless we are at SBC, then you have to bat him #4. He always plays up in SF.

by Maverick @ Athletics Nation on Dec 15, 2004 1:57 AM PST reply actions

Interesting thought...

Byrnes would work out of that slot vs. lefties, but still, as a lot of posters are saying, we are still lacking that power bat. I personally like Byrnes leading off, just due to the fact that he gets more ABs per game.

And PLEASE, can someone explain why people are so crazy about Ellis? I honestly don't get it. It seems like some A's fans are so anxious to get him back, as if he was what the A's are missing, and I disagree. I don't think having him back will make a significant difference in the team.

What would make a difference; however, would be that extra bat.

Dear Santa, I'd like a happy, healthy Big 4. And Byrnsie.

by baseballgirl on Dec 15, 2004 8:34 AM PST up reply actions

Need Right-Handed Power Badly

-There are too many 1 hitters: Kotsay, Kendall, Byrnes.
-Too many 2 hitters: Kotsay, Kendall, Byrnes, Swisher, Hatteberg, Durazo.
-Too few 3 and four hitters: Kotsay (not much of a 3 hitter), Kendall (hits only singles), and Durazo and Chavez.

This is a lineup I can imagine, but it really is so variable with so many people who can hit 1 and 2:

-kotsay
-kendal
-durazo
-chavez
-byrnes
-hatteberg
-swisher
-crosby
-2B

keep taking those pitches.

by Erubiel ForPresident on Dec 15, 2004 3:22 PM PST reply actions