Where are the current market inefficiencies?

by AlamedaAphid on Nov 30, 2004 9:36 PM PST

So we all know by now that OBP is no longer undervalued in the baseball world and Beane can no longer get bargains there. I'm sure the A's stat wizards have assigned dollar values to stuff other organizations are valuing incorrectly. I'm just wondering what these qualities might be, and I'm not enough of a baseball number-cruncher to make any good guesses. Any speculation? Are they rating psychological factors? Performance based on typical East Bay weather at night games? Moon phases? Some Grand Unified Theory of rating defensive ability that's guarded more closely than fission-weapon initiator design?

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Defense

Most likely. I don't think there's going to be anymore books written about how Billy runs his team. So it's safe to say, we'll probably never know exactly what the A's are targeting next. So they may create new stats that are not known to the general public. Defensive stats seem to be the big unknown. I haven't seen any so far that have really fully convinced me of their accuracy in portraying the events that have taken place on the field. That being said, it's not like defense is going to be the next big thing. It seems to me like it already has (Kotsay).

by davebenfremont on Nov 30, 2004 9:44 PM PST reply actions

2.

#P/PA is a valuble statistic for both pitchers and batters

i also like looking at groundball to flyball ratios. some pitchers (webb, bradford) have crazy ratios, over 3-1 and they generally have an ERA in the mid 3's.

speaking of which, G/F ratio + ERA for bradford the past four seasons.

3.13 = 2.70 ERA
3.28 = 3.11 ERA
3.54 = 3.04 ERA
2.67 = 4.42 ERA

more sink chad! i think he will rebound back to 3.00+ and have a better year in 2005.

Baseball is a market game. This site helps create a market. Blez makes the site. Blez is helping the A's win the world series.

by BaseballTao on Nov 30, 2004 10:26 PM PST reply actions

moneyball part deux

Michael Lewis is working on a book tracking the Moneyball draft through the farm system. I'm sure more Beane-ism is going to come through in that book...

by Apricot on Nov 30, 2004 10:31 PM PST reply actions

Chemistry and Heart

...and manufacturing runs too.

But seriously, what if all the things dismissed by Moneyball v1 were to become the things undervalued in the future? In the book, didn't Lewis / James / Beane say that defense is only 5% of the game, and now (given BB's devotion to Kotsay, Ellis, Chavvy) it may be one of the things that the market undervalues?

It's as if the book, by heralding OBP, shifted the market to focus on that stat. Maybe other teams will focus on it so much that things like foot speed and bunting will become undervalued commodities. Hopefully Rickey's still playing when that happens.

by nickolai on Dec 1, 2004 12:13 AM PST reply actions

"Secrets" in Moneyball phony?

Betcha plenty of the stuff Beane gives Lewis is disinformation, just to screw up the competition. At least I hope it is.

Maybe players who bring extra fans to the game are undervalued (more asses in seats & buying $7.50 beers= useful revenue). So (in 2000) an affable Canadian outfielder who looks like half the guys chugging Milwaukee's Best in the BART lot might bring in an extra $50K/year from folks who were pushed past the go-to-the-game/don't-go-to-the-game tipping point by his presence, while today a beefcake-blonde Peninsula outfielder who makes teenage girls' hearts go pit-a-pat might ring up an extra $100K/year. All these things must be placed on the scales when figuring out a player's real value.

Hmmm... maybe that's the secret behind the tightrope-walking Isringhausen/Koch/Dotel closer thing- their numbers averaged out OK, but the extra beer revenue (caused by anxious fans who need to knock back another cold foamer out of anxiety when they see Mr. Walk-Walk-Strikeout-Walk-Strikeout-Strikeout warming up) made crucial additional dollars for the team...which was the problem with no-drama Foulke. Oh, wait... no beer sales after the 7th inning, blowing my theory to hell.

by AlamedaAphid on Dec 1, 2004 1:12 AM PST reply actions

Beer Problem

I just buy two beers at the bottom of the 7th. I slammed those two beers when Mecir took the mound on the 1st game of the last A's/Angels series.

"Evil will always triumph because good is dumb." - Spaceballs

by secret ASian man on Dec 1, 2004 10:16 AM PST up reply actions

Beer wasn't strong enough with Mecir

I think a couple of Oxycontin horse pills washed down with a pint of Safeway generic tequila would have been a more effective response to seeing Mecir appear in an important game. With Rhodes, the best response was to run screaming from the stadium.

by AlamedaAphid on Dec 1, 2004 10:33 AM PST up reply actions

Which reminds me of my favorite Matt Stairs quote

After a game in which he was hit in the ribs by a pitch and didn't even blink, Ray Fosse asked him, "It looked like you didn't even feel that! How do you do it?"

Stairs: "I used to be a hockey player, so a baseball doesn't hurt much once you've been hit in the face with a puck a few times. Anyway, when you're playing hockey that kind of pain is no problem- just take about 50 Tylenols and a pint of vodka when you leave the ice and you're fine."

Fosse (taken aback): "Well..."

Stairs (remembering this ain't Canada or hockey): "Uh... just kidding!"

by AlamedaAphid on Dec 1, 2004 11:06 AM PST up reply actions

Here's what a nurse would do...

I know an RN who suffered multiple fractures in one of her feet from a fall -- surgery, pins, pain. According to her, she would ask her husband to bring her 2 Percocets and a glass of merlot every evening and she'd be able to sleep. She called it her "mercocet".

by Nick on Dec 1, 2004 11:15 AM PST up reply actions

Mecir losing th AL West for us

As Mecir took the mound, between Beer #1 and Beer # 2 I truned to one of my hardcore Angel fan friend (who is a talk lanky white boy from La Habra or somewhere esle in the OC, very stereotypical Halos fan) and said, "Enjoy the AL west, becaue the A's have just lost it. When I'm done with this beer I am going to pee. Fucking Mecir."

In mid-piss Mecir helped the A's lose the AL west.

"Evil will always triumph because good is dumb." - Spaceballs

by secret ASian man on Dec 1, 2004 4:04 PM PST up reply actions

Can't pin the whole season on Mecir's bad day

I recall a certain other bullpen guy had a role in that bad inning...

...plus I have this hazy memory of Hudson and Chavez hurt for long periods, the entire bullpen sucking for months, Zito having multiple slumps, and Mulder running out of steam in August, not to mention the A's execrable performance against the Red Sox.

But the "If Only" game will drive you crazy (and it's the kind of thing Red Sox fans tortured themselves with for many decades- you want to be like them?). If only Duchscherer hadn't balked in that winning run in Seattle... if only Crosby hadn't dropped that popup in Minnesota... if only the umpires had made the right calls on those trapped balls when Boston was in town... if only (fill in the painful loss here) the A's would have finished the season tied with the Angels!

by AlamedaAphid on Dec 1, 2004 4:33 PM PST up reply actions

Well...

I just never liked Mecir is high pressure situations. I had a sinking feeling when Mecir got on there. I'm not one of those guys who dwells on one small part of the season because there are many such instances, you are right. I just really don't like Mecir and I have never trusted him in a high pressure situation.

I mean he always did OK when the game wasn't on the line like it was that night.

"Evil will always triumph because good is dumb." - Spaceballs

by secret ASian man on Dec 1, 2004 6:10 PM PST up reply actions

New Moneyball

I think Beane is realizing you need role-players on the team. No, I'm not talking about Dungeon & Dragons enthusiasts, but rather that each guy in the lineup and at each position needs to bring something different to the table. None of this 9 Hattebergs or 9 Barry Bonds stuff anymore. The Yankees have proven that a star-studded lineup doesn't dramatically out-produce everybody else, and that it can be easily neutralized in short-series, i.e. the playoffs.

The D-Backs, Angels, Marlins, Red Sox all had lineups that had a little of everything. Hard-nosed, scrappy guys leading off (Counsell, Eckstein, Pierre, Damon), big boppers in the middle (Gonzalez, Glaus, Lowell, Ortiz), defensive wizards elsewhere(Miller, Molina, Lee, Cabrera).

I was skeptical whenever I heard about "balance" in the lineup, but I'm starting to believe it. With Kotsay/Kendall at the top, Chavvy/Ruby in the middle, and Ellis/Crosby towards the bottom, I think we have guys that can congeal and complement each other. Add that to a top notch pitching staff (though the bullpen needs to be fine-tuned), and we have the makings of a good team. Not a stat-head's dream, but one that looks alot like the last 4 teams to win the World Series.

by OaktownTribesman on Dec 1, 2004 7:25 AM PST reply actions

9 Barry Bonds

Did I read that right?

Assuming we're in the AL and we can have a real pitcher to go with them, are you really saying that you don't think a lineup of nine Barry Bondses would beat the crap out of a team with nine complementary "role-players"?

Forget about the home runs, the dude's had an OBP over 50% for the past four years. That means when he comes to the plate he's more likely to get on base than get out. Do the math. That scores a hell of a lot of runs.

That said, I hope we're starting a flyball/strikeout sort of pitcher rather than someone who gets a lot of groundballs. I don't think the all-Bonds infield would do much for Tim Hudson's stats....

by iglew on Dec 3, 2004 5:25 PM PST up reply actions

Wonder who the veteran-on-his-last-year will be

Presumably Beane & Co. will need to find their annual one-year-left-in-him Wise Old Veteran (Jaha, Justice, Velarde '02, Gant, McLemore) to play whenever his bum (knee/shoulder/back/foot/elbow/pancreas) allows and keep those rookies in line (fulfilling many of the functions of the superstar "Clubhouse Leader" at a cut-rate price). A smart, tough old guy who's been around and can still function as a player, though not at anywhere near the level of his glory years. Perhaps the guy is even selected for his position's proximity to the position of an important rookie (e.g., Velarde with Tejada, McLemore with Crosby). Such a player seems to be a crucial piece in the Beane plan; I wonder who it will be this year? Who's available?

by AlamedaAphid on Dec 1, 2004 10:54 AM PST reply actions

Larkin

Beane already inquired about Barry Larkin.

by OaktownTribesman on Dec 1, 2004 11:09 AM PST up reply actions

Is he cheap enough?

I get the impression he may have more than one year left.

by AlamedaAphid on Dec 1, 2004 11:22 AM PST up reply actions

Larkin = No go

I posted this in another thread. Larkin doesn't want to move to 2B, I heard this on 1050 when Billy Beane was on the Razor and (or) Mr. T. Beane said that some people from the A's were talking to Larkin's agent and his agent said that Larkin wants to remain a SS.

"Evil will always triumph because good is dumb." - Spaceballs

by secret ASian man on Dec 1, 2004 4:00 PM PST up reply actions