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AN! Do not give up on the 2005 season!

(Lately Peter Gammons has been saying, more or less, that Billy Beane is going to tank 2005 as a rebuilding year and shoot for 2006.  I don't buy it.  I think too many in AN are getting caught up in the negative feeling:  trade Zito, trade Hudson, trade Durazo, get prospects, maybe we can be good again some day.  I was writing the following as a comment on ohad's diary about Gammons' remarks on ESPN, agreeing with monkeyball's observation that every year is a retooling year for the A's, but my comment metastasized to where it needed its own diary entry.)

Star-divide

The A's "re-tool" every year.  It's important to understand that "re-tool" does not necessarily mean "dismantle" (although sometimes it does).  Some teams, like the Indians a few years ago, or the Mariners in 2004, hit the wall because too many people got old and/or expensive at the same time, and have no rational choice but to tear down the mess and start over.  Beane, on the other hand, has been remarkably good at retooling on the fly, balancing outgoing talent with incoming talent without any "collapse" seasons.  Damn difficult, especially given the onerous budgetary constraints, but he's done it very well.  There is no reason to expect either the intentions or the results to be very different in 2005.

I saw the Gammons bit on Sportscenter, too, and not only does does seem insistent in recent weeks that the A's are going to have a down year in 2005, but he implies further that they are going to almost deliberately scrap the 2005 season as a necessary sacrifice on the road to better things in 2006 and beyond.  A lot of ANers seem to be endorsing this defeatist notion.  Bullshit!

Mychael Urban quotes Beane as saying, "We expect to contend for a division championship in 2005 no matter what happens this winter.  That is, and will always be, the goal here."  That's pretty damned emphatic, isn't it?  Believe him!  If 2005 is a bad year, it won't be by design, it won't be a deliberate write-off.  Beane may not always give away his innermost thoughts, but there's no evidence that he flat-out lies about his intentions.  And EVERYTHING in his record indicates that he is as loath to write off the present in favor of the future as he is to sacrifice the future to the present.

Beane famously said of his first playoff team (in 2000) that it would be the worst team the A's would field in the next several years.  Sure enough, in 2001 and 2002 the A's fielded great teams that gave Oakland an outstanding chance of grabbing a championship, although that unfortunately did not happen.  In 2003 it was still a very good team, and in 2004 a somewhat less good team, but still good enough to have a reasonable shot at the whole shebang with good health and a few breaks.  In 2005 we should have another good team, one that could win it all if things break right (or, admittedly, win 80 games if all the breaks are bad ones).

Now the kernel of truth in what Gammons says is that 2004-2005 may in fact represent a low point in the A's talent cycle, with 2006 and 2007 having the possibility of a surge back to 2001-2002 levels.  But it isn't necessary to accept Gammons' conclusion that the bottom of the cycle (if 2005 is the bottom) must be the kind of ugly year usually associated with the term "rebuilding year."   Beane's balancing act means that even the transition year offers the team and the fans a shot at all the marbles if things go well.

And another thing:  after 2003 the A's lost both Tejada and Foulke, two superior performers, high-level All-Stars.  They still won 91 games.  After this season the best player they are losing is Jermaine Dye, whom age and injuries have reduced to a merely average player.  A bunch of pitchers had subpar years and can expect some rebound.  And over 2004-2005, the influx of talent (Swisher, Johnson, Street, Garcia, Blanton) for once outweighs the outflow.

So buck up, AN!  It's more than 3 months till the start of spring training--a little early to be giving up on 2005, don't you think?  Forget Peter Gammons.  The A's have both the intention and the ability to be competitive in 2005.  They won't have as good a shot at grabbing the brass ring as the Red Sox will, or the Yankees, or as good a shot as the 2001 A's had, and maybe not as good a shot as the 2007 A's will have, but they'll have a respectable shot.  More than most teams, by far, and better than some teams (e.g. the 2002 Angels, the 2003 Marlins) that have actually gone all the way.  How much more can you ask for?

And you know what? Even if they do have an off year, they'll still have a shot--probably a better shot--in 2006, and again in 2007.  There's enough talent coming up, and the management is in good enough hands (Schott notwithstanding), that the A's could remain competitive if they lost all three of the big three, painful as that would be (and I'm sure they'll hang onto at least two of them for next year and I hope to retain at least one long-term).  We have a small-market team, but we're lucky:  we have the most special of such teams.  Hope is not irrational.  Do not be overly influenced by yammerers on ESPN or the sour ending of the recent season.  Sure, it's an uphill battle for the small-market, disrespected Oakland A's, but victory, when it comes, is sweeter for David than for Goliath, don't you think?

Keep the faith.

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Great Post
Not much more to say than that.

by grover on Nov 13, 2004 8:02 PM PST   0 recs

hehe
the david-goliath part reminds me of Moneyball... the yankees (goliath) took our slingshot (jason giambi) bit in the end, we ended up winning (health problems!) ahha totally random there...
IM- ZitosGirl7528.... You Gotta love the Zitoness of Barry... :D

by GreenNGoldGirl on Nov 13, 2004 8:10 PM PST   0 recs

speaking of 05
hey blez, what do you think of may 13th for AN day? it's a friday night game (7:05 PM) and it's against the Yanks. Besides, it's Barry Zito's birthday. we could have a lot of fun with that... hehe....
IM- ZitosGirl7528.... You Gotta love the Zitoness of Barry... :D

by GreenNGoldGirl on Nov 13, 2004 8:20 PM PST   0 recs

wait.....
i already posted that on Happy Birthday, AN! srry!!!
IM- ZitosGirl7528.... You Gotta love the Zitoness of Barry... :D

by GreenNGoldGirl on Nov 13, 2004 8:21 PM PST   0 recs

finally
someone who thinks that we have a chance.  so many trades, so much bs.  stay true~!

by ucla kid on Nov 13, 2004 9:31 PM PST   0 recs

Totally agree! Beane's methodology ...
...keeps the A's close to the mark. Part of that methodology is trades to keep it that way  a couple to three years at a time. I enjoy that part and watching the season play out.
Beane's 5-year plan must be impressive, I got the impression by the things Chavez said after his signing that he got a peek.
...are the winless Warriors salary contracts enough to build a stadium complex? Murphy & Richardson alone are 100 million plus! ...just an A's fan.

by A s Eh on Nov 13, 2004 10:11 PM PST   0 recs

are the winless Warriors
Can this change now?
"Not the fucking ducks again." Tony S.

by rook on Nov 14, 2004 9:33 AM PST to parent up   0 recs

Well Said
Well said (as usual) Faust.
Beane's statement that they expect to contend doesn't mean a whole lot by itself - every GM says something like that every offseason. But if you look at the position the team is in, it simply wouldn't make sense to try to "rebuild" this year. They are in good position to contend for at least two more years with just the players currently under their control. In the longer term, the 2004 draft was rated highly even by those who don't normally like the "moneyball" approach. The main uncertainty is starting pitching; I don't know of anyone in the organization after Blanton who is considered a hot pitching prospect. But getting good young starters for 2007 isn't a problem that they are likely to solve right now - especially not by trading Hudson.

by andeux on Nov 13, 2004 10:21 PM PST   0 recs

Excellent diary, Faust...
nice job.  Good energy.

by Blez on Nov 13, 2004 11:18 PM PST   0 recs

You're right about the re-tooling...
But I don't think that anyone on AN, or even Gammons, believes that the A's will truly suck next year. I for one, have never said that. However, I am one of the people who believes they will take a step back, and that even if they stay exactly where they are they will not be a championship caliber team. I don't think people here should expect 90 losses. But I'm not sure it's realistic to expect 90 wins until that talent in the farm system matures.

To sum it up, I think that the 2005 team will not be bad, but it will be the worst A's tema of the NEXT five years.

by jmoney on Nov 14, 2004 12:01 AM PST   0 recs

Thank You Faust!
Rather than believe gossipmongers -- who more often than not predict the worst for the A'severy year  -- I prefer to believe Beane when he says that the goal of the A's EVERY YEAR is to field a team that will make the playoffs and hopefully win it all. "Every year" includes 2005.

Don't count on Blanton to adequately replace any of the Big 3 in 2005. The A's will keep all three for 2005 because they need them to contend.

by OaklandSi on Nov 14, 2004 4:58 AM PST   0 recs

Channelling jrbh
Faust, add my voice to the chorus of praise.

However, I myself (and I suspect jrbh may agree) am studiously ignoring any and all off-season pronouncements by Beane. He's either mouthing boilerplate platitudes or sowing disinformation to "game" other GMs. (Not that there's anything wrong with either of those practices.)

I do think that if Anaheim and/or Texas make serious pitching upgrades for '06, we will have a very difficult time making the playoffs. We will still be competitive, but it's gonna be an uphill slog.

This is where the "Evil Empire West" scenario starts to really hurt us. The Yankees-Sox spending nexus hasn't really affected us (aside from putting a bit of extra pressure on the wild-card race), since the obvious weaknesses of the other teams in the West gave us clear opportunities to compete for the division title. With Anaheim ratcheting up their spending, and Texas digging themselves out from their A-Rod-and-Chan-Ho-hole, the bar is being raised.

by monkeyball on Nov 14, 2004 8:01 AM PST   0 recs

Which is why at all costs
we need Randy to go to the Yanks. Desperately. I think it was grover who said that before. Anyways, with the angels becoming the newest big market spender, things are looking bleak. They will sign high profile free agents, like No-more.

The only positive is that guillen is going, and jeff davanon can't make up all those RBI's and that defense. And we really need Dallas McPherson to be a bust, along with jeff mathis next year. But we can't count on that. What we need to do is try and make ourselves better, instead of making the angels worse (with the exception of getting Randy somewhere else). We are gonna have to start trading some of our best prospects in order to keep up with the angels. Not strip our farm bear, we can still field agriculture, but we need to be able to acquire those big guys sometimes. And we need to start doing that. Starting this offseason.

Beanetown Baby

by ohad on Nov 14, 2004 9:51 AM PST   0 recs

Naked ursine agriculturalists?
The last time we here at Monkeyball Acres stripped our farm bear, he got very angry and cold, and refused to pull the plow any longer. He also mauled several migrant workers.

by monkeyball on Nov 14, 2004 10:38 AM PST to parent up   0 recs

I hope that
you, like many California farmers, had the foresight to hire only illegal alien farmworkers, so that you can just threaten them with deportation if they have the nerve to threaten workers comp claims or some such thing just because your bear took off their arm.

by Faust on Nov 14, 2004 11:36 AM PST to parent up   0 recs

Actually
Here at Monkeyball Acres, we hire only illegal Canadian immigrants. They're accustomed to bear attacks.

by monkeyball on Nov 14, 2004 11:40 AM PST to parent up   0 recs

Thanks for the kind words, everyone
Monkeyball, I wouldn't take Beane's words at face value, but neither would I studiously ignore them. I'd try to read them. I think it means something that he was being emphatic rather than coy, and emphatic in a way that reinforces what we already know to be his underlying philosophy. Anyway, the A's may or may not "take a step back" next year. But my main point is that A's management, specifically Billy Beane, will not and should not act as if an off year is a foregone conclusion or a necessity and "rebuild" in a way that precludes any chance of success in 2005. (I don't think you, or jmoney, or anyone on this thread is saying that, but I think Gammons may be.) A practical implication of this is that, if one of the Big Three is traded this winter, I'd expect the return would be something that could help the team in 2005 as well as beyond, not just beyond. I don't want to come off as Pollyannaish here, squinting at the world through heavily rose-tinted glasses. I've gone into each of the last 4 seasons thinking the A's, not Seattle or Anaheim, were the team to beat in the West. I probably will not take that position going into 2005: Anaheim is already pretty good and they've freed up a huge amount of payroll to play with this offseason (on the other hand, I think Texas is a bit ahead of themselves and may take a step back before they take another step forward). It's a bit of "an uphill slog," I agree, but by no means a hopeless one. And we should remember that a baseball season has a tremendous amount of contingency to it, and often enough the team to beat does get beaten. I think Beane will keep the slingshot loaded, and our guys may just succeed in planting a big, fat rock on the foreheads of the Goliaths in Boston, New York, and Anaheim. As Joaquin Andujar used to say, youneverknow.

by Faust on Nov 14, 2004 10:09 AM PST   0 recs

Well put
I expect Beane to be Beane: that is, he always wants to remain competitive.

The other thing to keep in mind is that as Anaheim is apparently about to enter the realm of the win-at-all-costs crowd, by overpaying for top-tier talent they may (a) miss other cheaper and more productive alternatives and (b) create a valuation imbalance in the market which Beane can exploit.

And, as great as Johnson is and most likely will be in '05, he becomes riskier and riskier every year. Anaheim is potentially building itself up for a massive collapse in '06 and beyond. (And I have a sneaking suspicion that we may see a Yankees collapse in '05.)

by monkeyball on Nov 14, 2004 10:45 AM PST to parent up   0 recs

I'd LOVE to see those collapses, but...
Anaheim has been disturbingly competent at developing cheap young talent (KRod, McPherson, Kotchman) to leaven the free agent load.  And I fear experience teaches even the thick-headed organizations some restraint over time. Now when they spend, they're targeting true top tier talent, not, you know, Aaron Sele.  That, in turn, brings us to the downside of their past stupidity:  their past mistakes are beginning to come off the books.  They paid $28 million to Glaus, Sele, and Percival last year, without getting anything like $28 million in value from the trio.  All that money is now available, enough to pay Unit with plenty left over.

As for the Yankees, they had a ton of things go wrong last year and still finished first.  It's almost impossible to spend $200 million and suck outright.  Even if everyone underperforms, it just means they win 95 games instead of 112.  George has almost eliminated the element of chance from the regular season; fortunately he can't do the same for the postseason.

by Faust on Nov 14, 2004 12:00 PM PST to parent up   0 recs

Yes, but ...
Faust, as always, excellent points and well argued to boot.

The Angels do indeed have some ugly commitments coming off the books. But they've got still got some big ones that by '06 will start to smell: Colon, Vlad, Anderson, Erstad. (I still think Vlad is going to at some point mid-season explode into his component parts. He's a great athlete, but he doesn't move like one.) And if they do get Pedro and/or Der Grosse Unit and/or The Guy The A's Didn't Get In A Trade Last Year (aka Beltran) and/or Mr. Mia Hamm then they're committing huge amounts of cash with significant catastrophe potential.

As for the Yankees, I don't want to minimize your point (because it's a very good one) but I can honestly see the Yankees missing the playoffs next year. And that, to Steinbrenner and the fans (and the media), would be a disastrous collapse. In fact, following your argument that Steinbrenner/Cashman is trying to minimize the role of chance in the regular season, if the Yankees were to miss the playoffs, it might be as great a "real" collapse as it would be perceived by their fan-base.

by monkeyball on Nov 14, 2004 12:39 PM PST to parent up   0 recs

We can also hope
that after the initial excitement of his new toy wears off, Moreno (like Tom Hicks) will remember that he's a greedy bastard who doesn't like spending all that money.

And if the Yanks do as you hope and miss the playoffs, it will be sweet for the A's, as it will probably take two teams kicking butt in the West to keep the Yanks out the the wild card.

by Faust on Nov 14, 2004 1:01 PM PST to parent up   0 recs

On second thought ...
Another thing that really helps the Yankees (and the Red Sox) is the disparity in the AL East, and, by extension, the parity in the West -- and the unbalanced schedule. BOS and NYY are able to fatten their records at the expense of the Orioles and the D-Rays, while we and the Rangers and Angels (and, I think, next year the Mariners again if they get a couple big boppers) beat up on each other all season long.

So, in addition to the Yankees collapsing, we need Toronto to keep developing, Baltimore to improve incrementally, and for Seattle to still suck and/or Texas to fall back.

by monkeyball on Nov 14, 2004 1:09 PM PST to parent up   0 recs

You know monkeyball
I have been thinking the same thing about the yankees. I have this wierd feeling they will suck, and the next five years they will start trying to get rid of those ugly contracts. Cashman will be fired, Steinbrenner will take over GM, and then hire cashman again because the yankees lose 100 games.
Beanetown Baby

by ohad on Nov 14, 2004 10:57 AM PST   0 recs

Farm Bear
The Yankees have really "stripped their farm bear." (Sorry for the repeat of the gag, but I find it a very funny mental image.)

As everyone knows, they went through a very long fallow period before the "Torre Era," during which time they developed their current aging nucleus of Williams, Jeter, Posada, and Rivera.

Then Big Stein decided that he wanted to get back into meddling in the baseball operations side. (I think that also coincided with Steinbrenner's coming off a couple of MLB suspensions. Someone correct me if I'm wrong.)

My point is: let this be a lesson to anyone who wants a rich, crazy, megalomaniacal control freak like Larry Ellison to be associated in any way with the A's ownership group.

by monkeyball on Nov 14, 2004 11:15 AM PST to parent up   0 recs

lol
sorry i didnt even notice i wrote bear. lol we all know i meant bare. You are quite immature sometimes for an (assumption) adult. Not like i am Mature King or anything.
Beanetown Baby

by ohad on Nov 14, 2004 11:27 AM PST to parent up   0 recs

Thank you!
I take that as a compliment, ohad.

It's all about unleashing one's Inner Monkey.

Or Inner Farm Bear, if you prefer!

by monkeyball on Nov 14, 2004 11:37 AM PST to parent up   0 recs

JK about everything but the.....
part of their actual collapse beginning to take place.
Beanetown Baby

by ohad on Nov 14, 2004 10:57 AM PST   0 recs

How do we keep going when
Every year we are retooling, every year one of our big guns is leaving for greenier pastures & biggier bank accounts, and when the A's gifted management pool have becoming the new breed of  GM's. And everyone has read the book. The Angels are becoming the Yankees west coast style-just spend baby, & Texas has the arms & the bats So the owners need to raise the bar somewhat, and stop trying to play cheap. Those days have ended and the future is not in our court, where we had the best/smartest management team that could find cheap talent- outsmarting the other teams; while other clubs would spent money as if they were printing it themselves. Those days are over my A's fans. Keep the core pitching !!!

by animal on Nov 14, 2004 11:51 AM PST   0 recs

We keep going because...
The Angels have been fragile the past two years, and there's no reason to think that they'll continue to lose valuable players to injury-- even Garret Anderson missed significant time, Vlad's back could give out and if they deplete their farm system, they'll find it hard to find good replacements for them. I don't know if a lineup with Shane Halter in it is a deadly one :)

As for the Rangers, it appears a lot the same as when they spent all that money on Chan Ho-- none of the pitchers available clearly give off that dominant air, and I can see them easily giving another 10 million to a Pavano, Lowe or Ortiz that turns out to burn them for the next four years. Maybe not as severely as the Chan Ho case, but no pitcher on the market this year really deserves the amount of money they'll likely get for being, well, the best available.

Meanwhile, we have a good team that's one game away from making the playoffs last year, returning much the same core, our farm system has some decent talent coming out, and if we can land a smart FA signing, we'll be set to be right up there with them.

by Trocmagic on Nov 14, 2004 2:39 PM PST   0 recs

imagine
Still, sometimes I like to imagine what we could build if BB went to the winter meetings and announced a fire sale.  Prospects are risky, but the return on the big three and Byrnes would be staggering.  I dont recommend it, but fortunately, I do not have to.  It is not in my hands.  

by mikedaviswhereareyou on Nov 14, 2004 4:43 PM PST   0 recs

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